Erdoğan may long for Biden days: Trump’s cabinet of horrors

President Tayyip Erdoğan welcomed Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency. During Trump’s previous tenure, he could communicate with him directly and even received White House invitations. Despite Trump’s hostility toward Türkiye during his first term, Erdoğan hopes to turn a new page in US relations during Trump’s second term. However, this new chapter might prove even more challenging for Türkiye, and Erdoğan may find himself longing for the Biden era.

During Biden’s administration, it was possible to manage conflicts through diplomatic channels, particularly through Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Intelligence departments.

Bad news for Ankara

Trump’s choice to lead World’s most powerful military is Pete Hegseth, a TV presenter with military service in Iraq. Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler will now have to negotiate with him, rather than with a fellow NATO general like Lloyd Austin, on crucial matters such as US support for PKK presence in Syria and the pending F-16 deliveries.

Hakan Fidan will have to work with Marco Rubio, a seasoned political operator who previously endorsed all military and financial sanctions against Türkiye.

Intelligence Chief İbrahim Kalın will at least deal with CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who has professional expertise in security and intelligence operations.

Erdoğan’s Chief Advisor for Security and Foreign Policy, Çağatay Kılıç, will face National Security Advisor Colonel (Ret.) Michael Waltz, known for his staunchly pro-Israel stance.

Other key appointments in Trump’s inner circle – UN Permanent Representative Elise Stefanik and Middle East Special Representative Steve Witkoff (a real estate billionaire and Trump’s golfing companion) – are also firm supporters of Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies in Israel.

A new political style

In this configuration, Erdoğan’s sole potential ally appears to be Elon Musk, who has expressed openness to cooperation. While other business leaders backed Kamala Harris, the world’s wealthiest individual reaped rewards from supporting Trump and is now positioned to oversee the restructuring of the US government apparatus.

Trump’s administration will effectively operate with two vice presidents: JD (James David) Vance handling official duties, while Musk manages parallel channels. Reports suggest Musk, who allegedly participated in Erdoğan-Trump phone calls, has met with Iran’s UN Ambassador in New York.

If Musk becomes Erdoğan’s primary channel to Trump, it’s crucial to understand that his involvement will invariably be driven by financial interests.

Until Trump resumes office

While discussing foreign policy in the Europe-Middle East region, Trump’s message to “accelerate action regarding Israel” essentially gave carte blanche for actions until his inauguration on January 20, 2025. His pledge to “end wars” will presumably begin after taking office.

This message resonated globally. Reports indicate that Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv have increased by nearly half (44 percent) since Trump’s election.

In this context, Erdoğan’s signals about launching a comprehensive political-military operation against the PKK in Syria can be interpreted as an attempt to secure a stronger negotiating position before Trump’s return while avoiding future conflicts.

MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli’s pressure on DEM through the “Öcalan initiative” appears designed as the domestic component of this political-military strategy.

While the Biden administration remains in power until the transition, both Türkiye and the international community have entered a period until January 20 where, metaphorically speaking, “anything goes” – a Turkish expression suggesting actions during this period won’t have lasting consequences.