Preparing for a new Cold War and Turkey

Will a new world order emerge after the pandemic that matches today’s popular expectations? Frankly, I’m not optimistic and believe the world is more likely to face another Cold War. And this Cold War – with its own unique dynamics – is more likely to turn hot. In short, we are on the eve of another very difficult time in human history.

One side of the new cold war will be the United States and the EU. As most readers will guess, on the other side will be China; and partly Russia. And sadly there is no mechanism or entity that enjoys the willingness and ability to preserve international peace and stability.

Unlike the previous cold war where the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) ensured relative stability, today’s dynamics offer little incentives for détente. On the contrary, today, regional powers are fighting each other through proxy wars which pose a more serious threat to global peace than we care to admit. Consequently, the new world order in making will take its final form in a highly volatile environment.

In addition to the three superpowers, the United States, Russia and China, regional powers such as India, Brazil, Japan, Turkey, Iran, Indonesia, Israel and Pakistan will all try to influence the outcome of the post-pandemic world order.

The rise of China

Based on purchasing parity alone, China can be seen as the most powerful country in the world. Especially along with Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, China is effectively the world’s largest economic power.

But China also seems to be at the forefront of technology. Through domestic innovation and by means of corporate espionage, China has assumed a dominant role in such areas as artificial intelligence, renewable energy, space technology, oceans and arctic resources management. And, such a China is a great threat to the United States.

If the U.S. somehow fails to impede China’s rise, it risks losing global hegemony to China. Consequently, it is wrong to expect that expectations of a new cold war, which became popular when Donald Trump was elected, are now less valid because the White House has a new tenant.

The most concrete manifestation that tensions haven’t left the stage together with Mr. Trump, took place during a widely televised duel of words between American and Chinese delegations in Alaska, last March.

One aspect where the next cold war will resemble its 20th century predecessor will be that independent countries all over the world will be forced to take sides; not just militarily but also in the fields of trade, investment and technology. And Turkey will be no exception.

Russia and Iran – and maybe even Pakistan – have already demonstrated their positions by favoring China while the EU – at least institutionally – firmly stands with the U.S. The most visible manifestation of European alignment with the U.S. was a recent joint statement that stipulated measures against China, Russia and Turkey would be jointly determined. Turkey, a decades-long Western ally and NATO member, being included in this list, is of course very worrying.

The strongest argument against the rise of China might not come from American policies but from domestic mismanagement in China itself. Despite its recent successes in many fields, China remains a totalitarian state, which places a heavy burden on its ability to continue its current growth levels as well as internal political stability. Especially, in the aftermath of a devastating pandemic, it is not hard to imagine a situation where China becomes its own worst enemy. On the other hand, if China does manage to stabilize growth at its current pace for at least another decade, it will inherently start outperforming the United States in many critical fields.

In such a scenario, the U.S. will have to work closely with critical allies such as the EU and Japan, to rein in China. By restricting Chinese trade through international institutions such as the IMF and WTO, it can substantially delay Chinese ambitions but it cannot succeed without a coordinated global effort.

Russia, Turkey and the US

Russia is also an important determinant in who will win the newborn Cold War. At the moment, Russia is pursuing a policy of reclaiming influence over territories that once were firmly under its control. President Vladimir Putin supports separatists in Ukraine, fuels instability in former Soviet Republics, and pursues expansionist policies in the Baltics, Balkans and the Caucasus. It also puts pressure on NATO by targeting the unity and political stability of its member states, which explains why Russia officially remains the number one adversary of the Alliance as reflected in strategic documents signed unanimously following the last three NATO summit meetings; Turkey being one of the signatories.

This is why Turkish cooperation with Russia in strategic areas, and especially the procurement of the S400 air and missile defense system, raises serious eyebrows in the West.

This explains why so many Western analysts question where Turkey wants to position itself in the next generation cold war. And Turkey, under its current leadership, doesn’t seem in a hurry to reassure anyone. The most obvious reason for Turkish reluctance to firmly side with the West is its own lack of trust in Western intentions caused by recent American policy preferences in the aftermath of the coup attempt in 2016 and regional conflicts such as Syria.

While the need to build up mutual trust is evident, and both sides need to increase empathy for each other’s positions, Turkish foreign policy seems to be in turmoil and lacks strategic direction. Domestically it is also undergoing serious political tensions and its economy is stuck. Whatever the reasons, it is clear that Turkey is failing to position itself correctly while the World is ongoing a major reshuffle.

It’s decision time for Ankara

Despite the challenges that Turkey faces today, it remains one of the most important regional powers in the world while its economic and political potential is even higher. But unless Turkey changes course and starts leveraging that potential, the first quarter of the 21st century will go down in history as a period of missed opportunities.

There is little room and even less time for hesitation. Every proper strategic analysis will show that Turkey’s interests demand a firm alignment with the West. Realpolitik and national interest clearly dictate the need to reassure its traditional friends and allies. On the international front, it should abandon the combative and confrontational approach that it has embraced in recent years and return to policies that prioritize soft power.

Alternatively, we will have wasted the nearly 200 years of distance that we have traveled towards the West and miss the historical opportunity to celebrate the first centennial of the Republic with the pride and success that the Turkish Nation deserves.