Opposition waits election call to nominate a candidate

The political calculations in Ankara have become more or less clear: the opposition will delay announcing their presidential candidate unless the government will respond to their early election call positively. 

Last month, I had the opportunity to meet with the leaders of three opposition parties: main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, İYİ (Good) Party leader Meral Akşener and Development and Progress Party (DEVA) leader Ali Babacan. I got the same response from all three, with almost the exact words. 

They were saying that the leaders of six opposition parties have been in dialogue, but the issue of candidacy have never been their prior subject. The Felicity Party (Saadet Partisi) leader Temel Karamollaoğlu, Future Party (Gelecek Partisi) leader Ahmet Davutoğlu and Democrat Party (Demokrat Parti) leader Gültekin Uysal, have been among these 6 leaders. Their parties have been in joint work in the parliament to find common ground for “transition to a new parliamentary system” from the current Presidential Government System that took effect after the 2017 constitutional amendment. 

All of the three leaders I interviewed had the same order of priority. The only common ground that these six parties have found was to exit from the presidential system, which led the country to one-man rule, and transition to a new parliamentary system, not the old one. 

Therefore, their priority is first to complete the drafting of the new Constitution. Then they will discuss to agree on the process and method of the transition from the presidential to the parliamentary system if they win the general election. 

Naming a candidate is the third article in their plan. They will pursue candidate interviews after the announcement of the future election. 

Roadmap towards coalition protocol

In its current form, the opposition’s roadmap, which is taking shape day by day, is evolving into a coalition protocol or agreement text. For example, in Germany, political parties may announce in advance with whom they would share the power if they cannot win the election as the leading party. 

That is already evident on the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) front that the People’s Alliance consists of the AKP and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). There are rumours in the political backstages that the People’s Alliance is to expand their coalition with the participation of minor parties, but there haven’t been any tangible developments yet. Maybe Erdogan is waiting for the election period to initiate such moves. 

But AKP voters will know that even if Erdoğan forms the post-election government alone, it will be with the de facto partner of the MHP. Likewise, MHP voters will understand that the way for their party’s existence in the parliament passes through the AKP alliance and supporting Erdoğan for the Presidency. 

That has already been clear since the 2018 elections that the following election will be the election of alliances, not parties. Another reason the opposition wants to wait for the announcement of their nomination is that they want to hinder the government from developing an election strategy against the opposition candidate. 

Preventive shot of the government against İmamoglu

This is why the ruling front gives almost all its weight to the opposition’s candidacy announcement as soon as possible. Journalist and self-proclaimed media ombudsman Faruk Bildirici wrote in his website that, Hürriyet’s op-ed writer Abdülkadir Selvi devoted 53 of his articles to the “candidacy” within the CHP last year, spinning the delay of the nomination as “fight within the opposition party”. Mehmet Acet from Yeni Şafak followed Selvi with 23 articles and Mahmut Övür from Sabah with 15 articles. 

“They want to stir a debate within the CHP, but we make fun of them with my mayor friends and say ‘Let them talk a little more.” Kılıçdaroğlu told İpek Özbey on Halk TV as a response to these claims.

Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu’s launch of a “terror investigation” against the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality shows that these efforts will not be limited to spin-doctoring the newspaper columns. The investigation was not issued against İmamoğlu, it was launched against İstanbul Municipality, but he was the target. MHP leader Devlet Bahceli was the one who hinted that the mayor could be sacked. 

On the assumption that İmamoğlu is the strongest candidate on the opposition front, the AKP already started the campaign to intimidate İmamoğlu before the election process even started. It will not surprise anyone that Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mansur Yavaş will be the next in line. Although his name is not mentioned among the candidates, Mersin Mayor Vahap Seçer, who opened an unexpected front against the People’s Alliance in the south, may also be targeted.

Erdogan’s dilemma: Bahceli

Erdogan’s most significant dilemma is the support he gets from Bahçeli. Without the support, it would not have been possible for AKP to win the 2017 Constitutional referendum or the 2018 Presidential election in the first round. Erdoğan knows this, and it does not seem likely to get the 50+1 vote, which is Bahçeli’s condition to stay in the alliance otherwise. But Erdoğan knows that it is challenging to get votes from the key Kurdish voters with the nationalist party as the major alliance. 

The energy hikes announced in the last hours of 2021, effective from 2022, further increased the cost of living and living difficulties. Annual inflation was reported as 36 % by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT). The December inflation alone is calculated as 13.58%. These are official numbers. Will salary increases be higher than this, or will mass layoffs begin? 

In the political backstage, rumour has it that Erdogan will hold a snap election while the market is flooded with cash, even though the purchasing power has fallen. This scenario is based on the prediction that the money abundance effect will last for up to 3 months. Even though both Erdoğan and Bahçeli said, “The election will be held on time, in 2023”.

The stamina of the government and opposition

In my opinion, going to an election in the current economic situation would be political suicide for Erdoğan. On the other hand, the hopes that the economic situation to improve are weakened by the reactive moves announced as a “program” one after another. There is news that the “Foreign currency linked TL deposit” program that was hastily announced on Dec. 20 will soon be replaced by “Inflation-protected accounts.”

That is not just based on the AKP’s political calculation: “as we cannot control the exchange rate, we can make TURKSTAT show the inflation low.” Any “inflation-fixed” program means that they will surrender. It would mean that Erdoğan would finally accept the importance of the fight against inflation, which he insisted on regarding as the result of the high-interest rates. 

If people have started to talk about price hikes, the answer from the AKP came as a form of launching terror investigation against CHP metropolitan municipality. Is the COVID epidemic spreading? The answer comes with the fallacy of satanic propaganda on the Fox TV entertainment show. The power of the government to withstand the calls for early elections comes from psychological propaganda to silence the political opposition with the police and judicial power. The strength of the opposition, on the other hand, depends on its ability and power to attract voters who have moved away from the power’s gravitational field but haven’t broken away yet. Candidate debate is part of that. The game is just getting started.