Presidential System may hit Turkey’s ruling block

DEVA Party Leader Ali Babacan’s opened the pandora’s box in Ankara saying that if elected, opposition block should not rush to change the Presidential System of Government. The statement brought out the concern that the ruling People Alliance has been avoiding. If President Tayyip Erdogan is not re-elected, his successor will continue to play the game by the same rules set by him. In other words, in Bahçeli’s terms, the Turkish Type Presidency system may eventually hit Erdoğan and Bahçeli.

What Babacan said while announcing his party’s “Economic and Finance Action Plan” on February 10, before the meeting where six opposition leaders will come together for the first time on February 12, is clear:

• “When there are such big problems, it is necessary to think whether it is right to change the system quickly and put new ballot boxes after 2023,

• “We can present ourselves as a coalition with a five-year plan and set principles. We can tell the nation that we will continue with a parliamentary system-like administration until the system changes.”

Babacan’s statements are realistic, not only in terms of restoring economic stability but also in terms of the political landscape.

Even if the opposition wins the election

It is not yet guaranteed that the opposition bloc will win the election. Even though ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has lost some votes, it is still the first party and support for Erdoğan is still 7-8 points higher than the AKP. It is possible to attribute this to the support of the People’s Alliance, partner Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which itself is in a downtrend. However, the Nation Alliance of the opposition lead by Republican People’s Party (CHP) and İYİ Party does not seem to have reached the strength to take power yet. It should not be forgotten that the “50+1 percent” rule will be valid for the first round.

Babacan’s statement that Nation Alliance should not ignore the Third Alliance, which is the Kurdish-issue focused People’s Democratic Party’s (HDP) attempt to establish with left-wing parties, reveals the intention to unite around a single candidate not as the Nation Alliance, but as the entire opposition and overthrow Erdoğan in the first round of the election.

However, even if the opposition wins the election, it will need 360 seats in the parliament to take the country to the Presidential Government System referendum and replace it with the Reinforced Parliamentary System. This is not easy. This is a number that the Erdoğan-Bahçeli alliance has not been able to find despite the clear majority of votes in the Parliament.

The need for accountability without vengeance

The first demand of the voters who will vote for the opposition is the economy’s improvement; the second demand is to bring the allegations of economic and political corruption during 20-years of AKP rule, which mainly were not investigated, to the judiciary.

Which judiciary, you may ask? Not necessarily today’s judiciary. For example, just as the AKP first let the Fethullah Gülen organization infiltrate into the judiciary and then eplaced them with incompetent politically preferred names after the July 15 coup attempt, it would be possible to take back that system in a short time only with the powers of the current presidential system.

Likewise, rapid amendment in the procurement law, which puts Turkey among the most corrupt countries in the world, can also be done by using the presidential system powers that Erdogan designed for himself.

The important thing here is to ensure accountability without resorting to vengeance, without causing new concerns to the public and the business world. Babacan also means this when he says “Erdogan has gone, Merdogan has come”; Similar statements had previously been given by CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and IYI Party leader Meral Akşener.

Akşener: its name is “Erdogan Crisis”

Akşener, while speaking at the “Development Congress” on February 10, emphasized that the current crisis is not solely an economic crisis; it is fundamentally a governance crisis, and named it the “Erdogan Crisis”.

The opposition promises to change the system, but it has begun to realize that it takes as much time as the numerical majority to change it without further damaging the institutions and values already shaken.

Babacan says, in order to recover the economy without further shaking it, let’s not drag the country into election fatigue again. He proposes a roadmap for a five-year transition period, which, if necessary, will turn into a cooperative protocol.

I think this roadmap will be discussed as well as the agreed draft constitution to change the system at the Çankaya meeting of the leaders to be held on February 12.

The Presidential System of Government was Erdogan and Bahçeli’s dream of strong power; it can turn into their nightmare.