Opposition’s longest meeting, Erdoğan’s hardest rally

While President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was at a a opening-ceremony-turned-into-a-grand-rally for a grand construction project that aims to transform closed Atatürk Airport in Istanbul into a massive recreational area named “Nation’s Garden” withon the evening of the May 29, the leaders of the six opposition parties were holding their longest meeting in Ankara which lasted 7 hours 15 minutes.

The six-party opposition coalition, which recently announced that they preferred to be called “Turkey Desk”, did not discuss the presidential candidate as expected in the meeting, but they declared their goals with a ten-item final statement, announcing that they start to prepare a joint program.

Before elaborating on their meeting, lets dig deeper into Erdoğan’s hardest rally.

Why is it the hardest rally?

It was his hardest rally, because the election period heralds the challenges that Erdogan will face in Istanbul, Ankara and other cities. The pro-government media found a catchy headline: On the 569th anniversary of the conquest of Istanbul by Ottoman Empire, they said, Erdogan gathered 560,000 people. Why didn’t they say 569 thousand people I wonder, a nine thousand plus people would not hurt. The published photos of the crowd were blurry, the aerial photo has not been published, it is not clear whether there really are exactly 560,000 people, but it is certain that hundreds of thousands of people were in Atatürk Airport.

Pro-government media wrote that the public filled the roads with enthusiasm. But a few days ago, dissident media started to write the otherwise. First of all, in Sözcü newspaper, columnist Deniz Zeyrek wrote that the Minister of Urban Planning and Environment Murat Kurum ordered his employees to be present in Yeşilköy, as a duty. Then, another news story indicated that the Ministry of National Education Istanbul Provincial Directorate expected teachers and students from all schools to participate the rally. Afterwards, a story covered that the Istanbul district municipalities under the control of the AK Party commissioned the buses in their usage to carry the crowds to Erdoğan’s meeting.

As the President, Erdoğan still had all the state means, but when the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) was in the hands of the AK Party, these types of organizations were not difficult at all. IMM was also giving all its means from land, sea, air, to Erdogan. Now, the municipality is in the hands of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) a leading party in the “Turkey Desk”.

Erdogan’s concert, Mor ve Ötesi’s rally

Would it be more easy if Erdoğan could get rid of CHP metropolitan mayors as it was done for the Kurdish-issue focused HDP mayors in the East and Southeast and appoint trustees instead of elected mayors by the hands of the Ministries of Interior and Justice? Would election rallies then cease to be dependent on the help of contracting companies? I think it would be dangerous to even try from now on. Especially when the fragility of the economy is increasing.

There was not a single new element in Erdogan’s speech. It was like any parliamentary group speech. Usual suspects were there in the speech text: words against CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the Syrian operation against the PKK (which he announced in his parliamentary group speech last Wednesday, before the US said “don’t”), the foreign powers that ruined the economy…

It was almost like “the best-of album promotion concert”.

The day before, Turkey’s one of the leading rock groups Mor ve Ötesi held a concert at Vodafone Park Stadium in Beşiktaş İstanbul. In addition to the stadium’s capacity of 42,590 people, the field was also packed; It can be assumed that there were between 50-60 thousand people. It was like a grand rally.

Because, I argue, the rate of those who will not vote for Erdoğan among the crowds in the Erdoğan’s opening-ceremony is higher than those who will vote for Erdoğan among those who buy tickets to the Mor ve Ötesi concert.

At the Table of Six: No candidates, but the program is coming out

The Turkey Desk has been organizing round table meetings at each leader’s party since February and they pledged to make six meetings at each party. When the fourth meeting hosted by Future Party leader Ahmet Davutoğlu, started, Erdoğan’s rally was ongoing. When it was over, it was already May 30.

We understand from the statement published after the meeting that the priority of the table of six is the election security. They pledge to the opposition voters that “not a single vote will be wasted”. You will remember that the previous HDP co-chairman, Selahattin Demirtaş said in the letters he sent from Edirne Prison that all opposition parties should cooperate at least on ballot box security. The leaders announced that the “Ballot Box Security Commission”, which was established after the AKP-MHP ruling alliance voted for the amendments in the election law, will announce their report to prevent any fraud in elections, on June 6th.

They also announce that they will publish their “Institutional Reforms Commission” report on 13 June. The issue of securing the independence of the Central Bank, which is said to be included in this report, is the first concrete sign of the common economic program so far. Likewise, restructuring the “Economic Social Council” and making it functional is also one of their agenda items.

Alliance until the elections are over

However, the real importance of the announcement of these two dates is that it responds one of the most serious criticisms directed at Erdoğan’s government from inside and outside: its unpredictability of future actions. It is important for the table of six to announce them without delay just as they did in their announcement of the “the transition to the Strengthened Parliamentary System” in February.

Likewise, the commitment of the Turkey Table leaders to “cooperate until the Supreme Election Board announces the final results” can be evaluated within this framework. However this should not be interpreted that the coalition of six won’t continue to work together if they win the election. It means that they at least pledge to continue to cooperate until then, despite their difference of opinion. It is a message to the voters as well as AKP-MHP’s People Alliance.

An assurance on predictability was also tried to be given with the “Ten Principles Statement”. The listing of these ten items is considered the first concrete step towards joint program creation. If the opposition wins the election, the priorities are listed.

What’s in the Ten Principles Statement?

The separation of powers took the first place; It has been written that the influence of the executive power held by the President are exercised as an influence on the judiciary and the legislature and that authority will be removed to ensure “normalizing politics and generating prosperity in our economy”.

Libertarian public order; fight against discrimination, freedom of thought, expression and press; freedom of religion and conscience; fight corruption through an independent judiciary; welfare state and income justice; economy focused on production and employment; political ethics reform and effective and credible foreign policy are other topics.

Foreign policy may have a certain share in these elections, although not as much as the economy. MetroPoll research shows that Erdogan’s stance against the membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO brought a 2.5 point increase in popularity in one month. There were an unease and the “search for consensus” in the İYİ Party caused by CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s response to MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli’s “exit NATO” statement. We see that a common view on NATO is also included in the Six Table statement. As with the fight against terrorism, there is a warning to the government not to “make it a domestic policy material”.

Earliest date of joint nomination

It is not in vain that Erdogan continues to target Kılıçdaroğlu with the Yeşilköy rally. Not only the opposition voters, but also the government expects the opposition coalition to issue a joint candidate as soon as possible; Of course for different reasons.

It is almost like a “don’t be a candidate” message to the CHP leader, when IYI Party Group Deputy Chairman İsmail Tatlıoğlu mentinoed his party’s leader, Meral Akşener alongside Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş while counting the candidates who can defeat Erdoğan even though Akşener herself said that she will not be “a presidential candidate”. It reminds İYİ Party member Koray Aydın’s emphasis on “Candidate who can be elected” months ago… So is DEVA Party leader Ali Babacan’s statement that he will put his own candidacy if there is no agreement on the joint candidate from the Turkey Desk.

Kılıçdaroğlu’s Chief Advisor, Erdoğan Toprak, speaking to İsmail Saymaz from Halk TV, thinks the opposite and claims that the numbers they have show that the CHP leader would “take the election by a wide margin”. IYI Party sources, on the other hand, point out that Yavaş and İmamoğlu’s level of appreciation surpasses Erdoğan in the polls; Akşener is also seen above Kılıçdaroğlu in those polls.

Apparently, the issue of candidacy is a topic that can generate discussions, perhaps it will be necessary to wait until the joint program is announced and the first round of meeting of the six opposition leaders is completed, by August September at the earliest.