SAMP-T and F-16s: Türkiye’s arms deal knots disentangled

It seems that the NATO Summit will pave the way for Türkiye to tackle the blocked arms purchase, and co-production, bids with the USA and the EU. Welcoming Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi in Ankara on July 5, President Tayyip Erdoğan said that Ankara wishes to proceed to the signing phase for the SAMP-T air defense system. At the same moment, White House Spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said in a press conference that US President Joe Biden supports the sale of F-16s to Türkiye. 

F-16 Can the congressional obstacle be tackled?

Biden, in his meeting with Erdogan, held after Türkiye lifted its veto to Sweden and Finland’s membership applications, said he would support Türkiye’s as soon as he returns to Washington after Erdogan brings up the issue. The previous US President Donald Trump removed Türkiye from the joint venture F-35 program, of which it is a co-producer, upon the purchase of S-400 air defense missiles from Russia. After that Türkiye applied to purchase 40 new model F-16 aircraft and 80 update kits to compensate its air defense deficit. Congress approval is required for the sale, but there is an anti-Erdogan mood in the Congress, which is preparing for the November elections. This mood, which softened due to Turkey’s role in the Ukraine Crisis, was reversed by the efforts of Greece, but it changed again with the Triple Memorandum, with which Türkiye removed its obstacle to Nordic countries in condition of their support in efforts against terrorism.

The F-16 issue was also discussed during the meeting of the President’s Foreign and Security Policy Advisor, İbrahim Kalın, with Lindsey Graham, one of the heavyweights of the Republican Party, who came to Istanbul on July 2. The White House statement shows that, although no development yet, the efforts to overcome the congressional obstacle continues.

Could it be SAMP-T instead of S-400?

Türkiye has been in contact for the French-Italian joint venture SAMP-T air defense system for a long time. The SAMP-T is a more modern defense missile system than the American Patriot system, capable of dealing with the S-400s from Russia, but compliant with the NATO standard. It is currently in use, within the armed forces of France, Italy, England, as well as Greece, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar.

The negotiations were carried out over the joint venture of the three countries, along with the redesign and technology transfer of the Aster-30, the top model of the system produced by EUROSAM, taking into account the demands of Türkiye. In other words, if it can be implemented, the SAMP-T system is expected to be an updated model prepared in accordance to Türkiye’s defense needs, not one of the existing models.

Erdogan had previously announced that there would be no possibility for Türkiye to return the S-400s. However, if the SAMP-T system project, which is compatible with NATO and originating from the EU, can be implemented, the S-400s may be in a position to be kept only in case of urgent need.

Negotiations with France and Italy

The preliminary studies of this project have been completed with studies that lasted for almost three years. However, due to the F-35/S-400 crisis between Türkiye and the United States, the project was actually shelved. With the recent NATO developments, the possibility of reviving the project has increased due to the softening of the atmosphere due to the Ukraine Crisis.

While answering the question about SAMP-T at the press conference with Italian Prime Minister Draghi, Erdoğan said that they also discussed the issue with French President Emmanuel Macron during the NATO Summit and that Ankara wanted to come to the signing phase as soon as possible. Pointing out that the Minister of National Defense Hulusi Akar also met with the Italian Minister of Defense Lorenzo Guerini, Erdogan said that the issue seems to depend on the agreement between Draghi and Macron. Unless, as both sides hint at from time to time, there is no interference from the USA.

Let’s also note that Draghi was one of the first European leaders to speak positively about Türkiye’s EU relations after a long time.

Yellow lights turn green or red?

Türkiye has demands from both the USA and the EU that are related to NATO defense. These are not only about the purchase of weapons, but also about the security problems faced by Turkey, especially the outlawed Kurdistan Labor Party (PKK).

These problems came to the fore with the NATO membership of Sweden and Finland, a bid they pursued after the Ukraine-Russia war, and are recorded in NATO documents. Ankara says in the Triple Memorandum that it will not give final approval unless the promises made by Stockholm and Helsinki are fulfilled. However, it seems that there is a possibility that the yellow lights, which are now on, will turn red again, unless the approval is given.

Each subject is somehow dependent on the other.

Therefore, it may be up to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who has recently come to the fore with his diplomatic skills, to disentangle the situation.