What if the CIA and MI6 are wrong? What if Russia wins?

On July 21, when UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres announced that he will be in Istanbul on July 22 to attend the ceremony of the grain shipment agreement between Türkiye, Russia and Ukraine, two interesting comments on Russia came from the heads of the US intelligence CIA and British intelligence MI6.

According to CIA Director William Burns, speaking at the Aspen Forum in the USA, 15,000 Russian soldiers were killed and 45,000 wounded during the invasion of Ukraine and this loss was significant. Speaking at the same forum, MI6 President Richard Moore said that Russia’s war efforts were running “out of steam”, so that it could pause the war, and that this was an opportunity for Ukraine to counterattack.

There were two important poin ts where both intelligence chiefs converged. First, they said that despite the rumors circulating in the Western media – according to their own determination – Russian President Vladimir Putin is in good health; I mean, they had such close information. The second was that Ukraine’s victory in the war depended on the uninterrupted supply of weapons from the West.

This was no minor detail, the first setbacks started very early.

Kissinger is more realistic

But first, let’s focus on this “Russia is out of steam” comment. The first thing that came to my mind was the two leaders who bring their own demise by underestimating Russia thinking that they would defeat it. One was the French Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte, who attempted this in the first half of the Nineteenth Century, and the other was the German dictator Adolf Hitler, who followed in his footsteps in the first half of the Twentieth Century.

The important difference between these two examples and this war at the beginning of the twenty-first century is that this time it is Russia, who could not digest Ukraine’s independence, that started the offensive. In fact, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov wrote in his article published in the Russian newspaper Izvestia on July 18 that he wanted to show that the real attacker was the West, which wanted to undermine Russia by taking Ukraine into the EU and NATO system.

In the same days, the German Der Spiegel reporter asked Henry Kissinger, who is still considered the intellectual dynamo of the Western world at the age of 99: “What if Russia wins?”. We read that Kissinger chose not to answer the question. Maybe it’s because he’s more cautious and more realistic in learning from history.

MI6 and CIA’s suggestion is not easy

The head of MI6 and the head of the CIA both point to the continuation of the flow of weapons from the West to Ukraine as one of the conditions for Ukraine to win the war.

This does not seem easily sustainable. Russia’s energy giant Gazprom recently announced that it will curtail natural gas flows to the European Union, citing the lack of spare parts due to the US embargo. This was a move that mostly targeted Germany. Indeed, it was successful. German Defense Minister Christina Lambrecht announced that they will stop arms shipments to Ukraine. Washington announced 40 billion dollars in aid to Ukraine, but the budgeted aid is 5.6 billion dollars, although not yet fully delivered, with additional 1 billion dollars announced by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on June 15. Most of it goes not to the Ukrainian government to be spent on its own needs, but to American arms companies for the needs that the Pentagon deems appropriate.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky’s complaints about the broken promises are stemming from these facts.

It is also difficult for Western democracies, which are under pressure of high inflation due to the Russia-Ukraine war, to explain to their voters why the money that should be allocated to them should be spent on weapons in Ukraine.

NATO, Russia, Türkiye

There are other interesting points in the Russia evaluations of the CIA and MI6 heads. For example, the former British Ambassador to Ankara, Moore, said in his speech that if Ukraine it
“will be an important reminder to the rest of Europe that this is a winnable campaign” he did not say it openly but he meant a war against Russia as “winnable”. Burns, on the other hand, shared his analysis that China will monitor Russia’s situation in Ukraine and determine its Taiwan policy accordingly. Apart from the continuation of the flow of weapons to Ukraine, another factor he emphasized was that NATO recovered thanks to this crisis, and the membership of Sweden and Finland became stronger.

And Türkiye… President Tayyip Erdogan says that if Türkiye’s demands for the fight against terrorism, especially the PKK and its subsidiaries, are not met, he may not approve the membership of the two Scandinavian countries that he has not prevented from applying for membership. In this context, the statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that “We have registered the PKK and FETO in NATO documents” was not a development that would make Erdogan happy.

However, Türkiye has been able to maintain the Russia-Ukraine balance since the beginning of the crisis, despite being a NATO member.

Not a piece of cake, not a bird in hand

Two political meetings between the two countries were also held in Türkiye. Now, the grain agreement, which may affect the world economy, is in the process of being implemented with the facilitation of Türkiye.

The official NATO membership of Sweden and Finland may be delayed.

Does the CIA Director know something that makes him so sure that Erdogan will yield to the pressure and approve Sweden and Finland’s bid? Making mistakes in this will benefit Russia.
Another misconception may be about the head of MI6’s words: “about to run out of steam”. Just a few days ago, on July 19, a $40 billion cooperation agreement was signed between Russia and Iran on the day President Erdoğan met and talked with Russian President Putin as the guest of Iranian President İbrahim Reisi. Gazprom will help Iran’s National Oil Company develop new natural gas production areas. This is the largest foreign investment ever made in the Iranian economy.

In the Pacific region, Japan applies US sanctions, but on the one hand, it is afraid that Russia will do to itself what it has done to Germany. In return for standing by Israel against Iran, Saudi Arabia breaks the embargo in defiance of Joe Biden by buying discounted oil from Russia and selling its own oil dearly.

Therefore, Washington and London do not have the luxury of considering Türkiye in the bag or thinking that Russia is a piece of cake. Especially when Kissinger could not find an answer to the question “What if Russia wins”.