Who would the US and EU want to win the Turkish elections?

Russia does not hide the fact that it is in favor of Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan winning the upcoming 2023 elections in Türkiye. Their domestic interests require such support.

With the S-400 issue, they started a debate in NATO over Türkiye that they could not have caused if they had spent billions of dollars on psychological warfare methods, and in return they received 2.5 billion dollars for the S-400s. They are building the first nuclear power plant outside Russia in Akkuyu, Türkiye. They do not consider the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) a terrorist organization like the US – even on paper – however, they are not targeted by Erdogan because they are in favor of a Kurdish federation, let alone establishing relations with them.

China is silent. They look at the issue from a commercial point of view, and also from the point of view of the Uighur Turks. On the one hand, the ruling AKP government, including its partner Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which until recently used the rhetoric of “captive Turks in East Turkestan”, is not addressing the issue, and on the other hand, the newcomers are switching to human rights discourse. They are silently watching the developments.

Erdoğan does not consider them or the Arab countries that open the money taps as “foreign powers” and not use animosity against them as his election discourse.

So, do you think the European Union and the United States want President Tayyip Erdoğan or the opposition candidate, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, to win the elections?

If Kılıçdaroğlu wins the elections

You may answer “of course they want Kılıçdaroğlu to win” and can start listing the reasons:

• The six-party opposition alliance “Table of Six,” which nominated Kılıçdaroğlu, says that if he is elected, he will be in favor of improving relations with the EU. It says that Türkiye’s relations with NATO will be emphasized on a more egalitarian basis. Yet Erdoğan is ready to slam the US and the EU at every opportunity and stand against them with the discourse “the voice of the oppressed world”.
• Kılıçdaroğlu claims to send Syrian migrants back safely, in agreement with Syria. Erdogan, on the other hand, keeps them in Türkiye, demands financial aid from the EU for their care and threatens to send them to Europe in every crisis.
• Kılıçdaroğlu and his partners claim that if they win the elections, the Central Bank will no longer be at the behest of politics, the Treasury and Finance will implement predictable economic policies, the independence of the judiciary will be ensured, and an atmosphere of confidence will attract investors from the EU and the US to Türkiye.
• Kılıçdaroğlu promises to return to the Istanbul Convention against violence against women if elected. He says he will work for the release of political prisoners such as Selahattin Demirtaş and Osman Kavala, and that freedom of the press and freedom of expression will be expanded. These are steps that will bring Türkiye closer to EU standards in terms of human rights and democratization.

Why do “foreign powers” want Erdoğan?

You can list all these and ask – rightly – why the US and the EU would prefer Erdoğan to win the elections in Türkiye instead of Kılıçdaroğlu.

Then we can start with the fact that neither the US nor the EU are singular entities.

Yes, investors from the US and EU countries may return to Türkiye with its huge domestic market and geographical location, first with the steps on the Central Bank etc., and then with their promises of “predictability” and “judicial independence” if they keep their promises. This is a high possibility.

Yes, progressive parties, civil society organizations and media in the West may applaud the release of Kavala, Demirtaş, return to the Istanbul Convention and the steps to strengthen secularism.

But when it comes to politics, things change.

If Kılıçdaroğlu wins, the West, especially the EU, will face a serious test; it will have to confront itself.

It is easy to “marginalize” and “othering” the Islamist and now nationalist Erdoğan and, in Erdoğan’s eyes, Türkiye.

Brussels and EU capitals, for example, will have to respond to Ankara’s further steps.

For example, EU capitals are worried that if Kılıçdaroğlu sends Syrians back, they will take other routes to Europe. But Erdoğan is willing to keep them in Türkiye for his own political and economic interests. This is what suits them.

A Türkiye that turns its face back to the West is not in the interest of the religious, right-wing, conservative and racist circles in the West who see the EU as a Christian Club. In the eyes of most EU politicians, Türkiye must remain the antithesis. That is why they secretly prefer Erdoğan to win the elections.

Take a good look at who you are talking about when you say foreign powers.