Three days until Turkish elections, three key questions

With just three days until the critical Parliamentary and presidential elections that might have influence on the political trajectory of not just in Türkiye but in the globe, the uncertainty prevails.

The most recent polls put opposition’s presidential candidate and Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu ahead of President Tayyip Erdoğan, with a higher chance of winning in the first round

There is a tidal wave, with a more or less clear direction, but its intensity is hard to predict. A victory for Kılıçdaroğlu in the first round will be the result of this wave; the voice of the silenced voters. However the streets and polls do not seem to agree.

There is a lack of balance and massive inequality between political campaigns. While the government enjoys boundless state benefits, the opposition campaigns under state pressure. People gather governmental rallies with ease while face state-led obstructions in opposition rallies.

Within the last week of his campaign, Erdoğan’s balancing tone between hope and fear seems to have shifted in favor of fear. He uses aggressive rhetoric as if the country is going to war when there is none; he threatens the voters saying “Türkiye will be destroyed if we leave” and their campaign is based on misinformation and disinformation (going as far as printing fake inflammatory posters in the name of CHP).

Kılıçdaroğlu, on the other hand, has changed the complaint-hope balance of the traditional opposition campaign in favor of hope. The slogan “I promise, spring will come” and opposition’s Vice President candidate and Mayor of İstanbul Ekrem İmamoğlu’s previous slogan “Everything will be beautiful” dominate the rallies.

Three days, three questions

It is clear that there is a tidal wave that will determine the outcome of the election, but some questions still need to be answered as to its intensity:

1- An attack on İstanbul Mayor İmamoğlu’s Erzurum rally has stirred a debate on the possibility of further violent provocations. The government’s accusation that the opposition had “staged the attack,” was debunked by the following investigation, which revealed that one of the leading perpetrators was a specialist sergeant in the army intelligence.

The attacks on the opposition campaign strive to deter opposition voters from voting. The opposition calls their voters to peace, and not to respond to these attacks with violence, responding instead at the ballot. Will there be an increase in these provocations in these last three days?

2- It is obvious that some IYI Party voters are still hesitant to vote for Kılıçdaroğlu. This is due to the AKP and MHP’s propaganda that conflates the Labor and Freedom Alliance’s support for Kılıçdaroğlu with support for the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Although this propaganda was undermined by Erdoğan’s inclusion of islamist Hüda-Par in the People’s Alliance, resulting in nationalist groups to hit the brakes. How will Akşener’s support for Kılıçdaroğlu in the last three or even the last two days affect this voter hesitance?

3- The influence of independent presidential candidates Muharrem İnce and Sinan Oğan continues. The latest indicators suggest that İnce continues to lose votes. However, there is an impression that some of the votes that broke away from İnce went to Oğan. Likewise, some of the Turkist-nationalist votes that broke away from the IYI Party also seem to be going to Oğan. In order for Kılıçdaroğlu to win comfortably in the first round, do the total votes of Oğan and İnce, whose aim is for the election to go to the second round, need to fall below 6 percent?

Forth factor: election security

After the Supreme Electoral Council rejected the Ministry of Interior’s request for data sharing, the Ministry announced that the police and gendarmerie will collect the results of the ballot boxes. However, this is a task assigned to the Supreme Electoral Council by the Constitution.

The opposition has shown concern that the results could be tampered with during the transportation of the vote sacks, especially in the eastern and southeastern provinces where the Green Left Party is influential and in the western provinces where the CHP is influential. One of the reasons for the opposition’s concern is Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu’s statement that he would consider it “a coup” if Kılıçdaroğlu wins the election.

Considering these circumstances, election observers, especially those from opposition parties, will have to be careful to take wet-signature photographs of the ballot box results in the schools where the votes will be cast. And in the second stage, they will have to be diligent in checking the computerization of the results at the district election boards.

As we enter the last three days of the election campaign, this is the fourth factor or problem that can be added to the three existing political questions in terms of election security.