Türkiye’s main opposition is on edge: scenarios, maneuvers, moves

Türkiye’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) seem to be on edge, evinced by their prominent member’s behaviour when they visited the western province of Muğla, Akbelen, to support the protesters who have been in clash with security forces to prevent their forest to be cleared for a coal field.

The CHP Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, along with a delegation, went Akbelen forest area where the tree-cutting was taking place, in an aim to both politically profit from the environmentalist reaction in the society and to distract attention from the in-party struggles that seem to occupy the news feeds since the election defeat.

However, it became evident that the trip was made without the necessary preparation when Kılıçdaroğlu was caught between protesters against expansion the coal area and power plant workers worried about losing their jobs.

“The gang of five is sucking the blood of the nation,” Kılıçdaroğlu’s said, referring to the YK Energy company, which operates the Yeniköy and Kemerköy thermal power plants in partnership with Limak and İçtaş.

His statement was overshadowed by the fact that the protesters he went to support protested against him as well as President Tayyip Erdoğan and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) government.

On edge and…

But that was nothing compared to what happened next. First, a video of CHP’s Mahmut Tanal, known as a populist politician, saying to a protester, “We’ve lost because of people like you, you are an AKP provocateur,” hit the media.

Then footage of Ali Mahir Başarır, CHP’s parliamentary group deputy chairman known for bringing the problems of the people to Parliament, wagging his finger at a protester who was criticizing the CHP, telling to “stop shouting” and being booed.

Then again footage of CHP’s Mustafa Sarıgül shoving a protester.

That’s why I say “the party is on edge”; CHP need to digest the defeat and calm down when they go in front of the masses again.

But it is not only nerves are on edge at the CHP front. How could it not be? On the one hand, the İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has started to unfurl his flag. On the other hand, former Secretary General Önder Sav, one of the prominent CHP members who has been silent for 13 years, has reappeared on the stage. On top of that, IYI Party leader Meral Akşener took a swipe at Kılıçdaroğlu without mentioning a single name. The circle around Kılıçdaroğlu is being narrowed from within and outside the CHP, putting pressure on him and the CHP.

Headquarters, Özgür Özel, Önder Sav

I will start with Özgür Özel, the main opposition’s parliamentary group leader. On the one hand, it was revealed that he attended meetings with İmamoğlu under title “how Kılıçdaroğlu should be sent away” and his name was mentioned in certain alternative leadership scenarios with İmamoğlu. On the other hand, he was standing on Kılıçdaroğlu’s right side in Akbelen’s visit. During last week’s session in the Parliament, he appeared to dominate the CHP Group and made a statement saying “No harm to the party”.

Önder Sav came out and dismissed the conspiracy theories behind Kılıçdaroğlu’s election in 2010 to replace Deniz Baykal. According to Sav, Baykal, whom he had served as secretary general, actually wanted to stay in charge despite the scandal, which would have harmed the CHP, and it was he who convinced Kılıçdaroğlu to run and got him elected at the congress. He was responding to the centrists who claimed that the party would be “left in a vacuum” if Kılıçdaroğlu resigned, saying that there would be no vacuum again, just as there was no vacuum when Atatürk, İnönü and Ecevit left.

Moreover, it was Sav’s statement that “İmamoğlu would have been elected if he had been a candidate”.

Just like, for example, the IYI Party members, Sav saw Kılıçdaroğlu as a strategic mistake in running against Erdoğan.

Sav’s memorandum and İmamoğlu’s move

The CHP headquarters is on edge because, according to Sav, “the voice of the deep CHP” is that “just like Baykal” Kılıçdaroğlu had also turned into a “one man”. This looks like a memorandum, rather than a “reminder”, the meaning of which goes beyond the line what İmamoğlu has been trying to draw for a while.

Imamoğlu penned an article titled “Türkiye İçin Yeniden” (For Turkey Again), which was interpreted as a “road map” in Oksijen newspaper, with a different meaning. He added a political perspective for the first time to his “Kılıçdaroğlu should go, I will come, everything will be beautiful” stance.

As far as I understand, İmamoğlu proposes to democratize the current Presidential Government System instead of focusing the opposition’s energy on overthrowing the current Presidential Government System and bringing in a strengthened Parliamentary System. He cannot say this openly yet; I think he will.

When I say that the CHP is on the edge, I also mean that the headquarters has not yet been able to add political content to the discourse of “If Kılıçdaroğlu leaves, there will be a vacuum”.

In this context, Akşener’s words in her speech “No matter what, we lost” have a special meaning:

“My political understanding is that whatever the nation says is fine. If a politician complains about the nation’s choice and questions it, they should immediately retire and go home.”

And Akşener’s offer to the deep CHP

The addressee of these words was perceived as Kılıçdaroğlu, even though Akşener did not name him. Politics is based on the perceived reality rather than the actual reality.

In the same speech, some people interpreted Akşener’s statement that the Millet Alliance was no longer valid and that the CHP and the IYI Party would enter the local elections in 2024 independently as the burning of bridges between the CHP and the IYI Party.

I completely disagree with this view.

If we take the derivative of Akşener’s words in the language of mathematics, we can see that she does not want to re-establish an alliance with a CHP with Kılıçdaroğlu at its head, but she signals that the doors will be opened to a CHP without Kılıçdaroğlu. This could (preferably) be İmamoğlu, Özel or another name that will emerge from the CHP congress.

This is Akşener’s proposal, which she did not openly declare. The offer seems to have been made to the “deep CHP” as much as to the CHP headquarters, which is in a very frustrated state.

In a sense, we are building a matrix for an equation with five unknowns: Kılıçdaroğlu’s stance, Özel’s bridging, İmamoğlu’s move, Sav’s memorandum and Akşener‘s offer.

Such equations may sometimes result in the emergence of a name that is not currently being considered, but it may be useful to read the developments on the opposition front within the framework of this equation.