Diplomacy amidst war: MBS kept Blinken waiting, Türkiye proposed guarantorship

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan offered to act as guarantor for Israeli-Palestinian peace on October 16 at a press conference with his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry. I find it quite important. But first, I would like to talk about the diplomatic scandals that took place in the midst of the war and that were initiated by the United States, because they are very evincing about the shifts in the axis of the international relations system.

Cold shower for Blinken

The biggest scandal of recent days was first reported by the American newspaper The Washington Post. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was scheduled to meet with United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zaid in Abu Dhabi on October 14, then traveled to Riyadh, where he was to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on that evening before moving on to Egypt. But bin Salman, known in the West by his acronym MBS, was in no hurry. He did not meet Blinken that evening. First, he announced that he was shelving the rapprochement agreement with Israel, shortly before the Hamas attack and the Israeli offensive in Gaza. The next morning, he received Blinken in a very uncomfortable sitting position on two sofas next to each other, as if he were hosting a guest in his home, not an official guest, as can be seen in the photo below.

Perhaps the US Secretary of State should have thought of this when he visited Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netahyahu, declaring that he “came before them as a Jew” and embarked on a tour of Arab countries to align them in support of Israel.

Israel’s rejection of Zelensky

Another diplomatic scandal was when Israel told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was also Jewish and wanted to make a “solidarity visit” to Israel, was rejected with a note “not now, maybe later”. Ukraine is actually very uncomfortable with the fact that the Gaza war has distracted attention from Russia’s war in Ukraine and that the money and weapons promised to Ukraine by the West will go to Israel. However, Zelensky has been open and ardent in his support for Israel from day one.

The announcement of US President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel just hours after the Israeli government told Zelensky that “now is not the time to visit” is another dimension. The US President, who has deployed warships to the Eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf due to the crisis and put the American bases in Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia on alert, is going to visit Israel with General Michael Kurilla, Commander of the Central Command (CENTCOM), the US strike force in the Islamic geography. We know Kurilla from his recent support visit to northern Syria following Türkiye’s attacks on PKK-linked targets in Syria.

Guarantor proposal

Will the Biden’s visit lead Arab countries to align behind Israel and turn against Iran while Palestinian civilians continue to die?

It is worth noting here that MBS asked Blinken to stop Israel’s indiscriminate raids on Gaza without discriminating between civilian targets and Saudi Arabia said it was not considering increasing its oil production at this stage. This meant that in the event of an Iranian attack or blockade, oil prices would rise and Russia (and of course the oil and gas producing Arab countries) would benefit.

While some are fanning the flames of war, others are trying to ease the tensions as soon as possible. After the Russia-Ukraine war and – so far – in the Gaza war, it is positive that Türkiye is in this second group.

Foreign Minister Fidan’s proposal for a guarantor for peace fits into this framework. Fidan was actually saying that the US is also in favor of a two-state model in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but that a guarantor system should be established for this.

Germany’s Hamas proposal

Türkiye was ready to be among the guarantors for a Palestinian state, but someone had to be a guarantor for Israel. The Turkish Foreign Minister hinted that Western countries, especially the United States, should also be guarantors for Israel, even if the United States is playing a very different tune at the moment.

In the same context, Fidan’s meetings in Cairo on October 14 with his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry and his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock were important. Shoukry said they had a similar position with Türkiye. It must be assumed that Fidan discussed the guarantor proposal with Shoukry. Fidan is likely to raise the issue at the Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Saudi Arabia on October 18.

Baerbock, for her part, told German ARD television on October 15 that Türkiye and Qatar “have channels of communication with Hamas” and asked for mediation for the rescue of German hostages in Gaza. On his return, Fidan had a phone call with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who is reportedly in Qatar. We do not yet know the outcome. President Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler and MIT chief İbrahim Kalın are also continuing their diplomacy in Gaza.

It remains uncertain whether the guarantor proposal will be reciprocated, but at least it aims to put out the fire instead of adding fuel to it.