Turkish main opposition elects new leader: What “change” can he bring?

The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) changed its leader at a highly contested November 4 congress, and delegates elected young Parliamentary Group Chair Özgür Özel to replace Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who refused to resign despite his failure in the presidential and parliamentary elections that took place in May.

The 49-year-old pharmacist challenged the 13-year-old Kılıçdaroğlu-chairmanship as a candidate of the movement that cemented critics within the party under the “change” motto, which became visible after the election defeat.

The Party’s young Parliamentary Group Chair secured the leadership seat in the early hours of November 5 with the 812 votes of the 1366 delegates in the second round of voting, in a congress where the general atmosphere was favoring Kılıçdaroğlu’s easy win.

In his thank-you speech after his election, Özel said that the goal of his election was “to turn despair into hope, to lift up the faces looking at the ground, and to make the sullen faces smile.”

His election marks two important points: first, he became the second CHP chair after 52 years, replacing an existing CHP leader with democratic party elections, another first in Turkish politics in this century.

It seems inevitable that this intended “change” in the CHP will affect some of the balances and alignments in parliamentary politics leading up to the March 31 local elections.

Will the clouds of “despair” in opposition cease with change?

Political scientist Seda Demiralp, in her article in YetkinReport, wrote about the results of the Reform Institute’s “Research on Voters and Emotions Between Two Elections,” the first of its kind in Türkiye, and showed that a state of apathy was very visible among voters after the May elections.

According to Demiralp’s research, the reflection of this apathy in the opposition was that the desire for “change” among those who voted for Kılıçdaroğlu reached 80 percent. Support for Özel, on the other hand, exceeded 60 percent. The results of the congress confirmed this.

With the election of Özgür Özel, the dissonance between the CHP headquarters and the parliamentary group, which occurred with the May 2023 elections, came to an end.

Kılıçdaroğlu was a presidential candidate, and he did not run for the parliamentary election. After he failed in the presidential elections, he was also eliminated from parliament. Normally, parliamentary chair seats are taken by the party leader, but since Kılıçdaroğlu has not become a parliamentary member, Özel took that seat.

Renewal and change

The rift was exacerbated after Özel allied with Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who initiated the dissident movement under the slogan “Change.”

Özel had entered the congress with the goal of “change,” and Kılıçdaroğlu with the goal of “renewal,” but with the election of Özel, both goals were united.

With the election of Özgür Özel as the new chairman of the CHP, a new era has begun on the very first day.

Most of the Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu-era staff who attended the Zoom meetings organized in July at the initiative of Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu do not seem to have found a place in the Party Assembly. Instead, Özel seems to have replaced them with provincial chairs, district heads, and names from the world of academia.

In this context, it is likely that the return of the names of those who have left the CHP willingly or unwillingly in the recent period will also be put on the agenda.

The first name that comes to mind is Muharrem İnce, the leader of the Hometown Party, who said, “If Atatürk came, he would not be able to take the Kurultai because the system has been transformed,” but was among the first to congratulate Özel.

Could he be the second Ecevit?

November 5, 2023, the day Özgür Özel was elected CHP leader, was also the anniversary of the death in 2006 of Bülent Ecevit, the man who initiated the first change in the CHP.

Ecevit had resigned as Secretary General after İsmet İnönü had appointed Nihat Erim from the CHP to the March 12, 1971, military coup government. He was elected as the party chair in an extraordinary congress after İnönü resigned when he won a majority in the Party Assembly.

From this point of view, Özel’s election is also the first defeat in CHP history against the chairman through delegate elections. This election also showed that, despite everything, the mainstream mass party in today’s Türkiye, where internal party democracy works best, is the CHP.

Ecevit became prime minister in the 1973 elections with 42 percent of the CHP’s vote. Kılıçdaroğlu was able to raise the CHP from 19-21 percent under Deniz Baykal to 25-26 percent in 13 years.

He should be able to cross the 30 percent threshold of the CHP and create a strong alternative to Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Erdoğan: Nothing has changed

Judging by President Tayyip Erdoğan’s reaction to Özel’s election, which was reflected on the front pages and columns of the ruling media today, the intention of change and renewal in the CHP seems to have caused discomfort.

According to Erdoğan, there is no difference between Kılıçdaroğlu and Özel because “both sent greetings to Selahattin Demirtaş and Osman Kavala in their speeches.”

His words can be interpreted as if he said, “Anyone who doesn’t see my enemies as enemies is considered to be in the enemy ranks.”

Erdoğan doesn’t want to see that the CHP’s desire for change has triumphed electorally in a congress where the party’s members voted for a rival to the chairman. This is because the functioning of intra-party democracy seen in the CHP congress, despite all its flaws and faults, is a counter-example to the one-candidate, unanimous election model currently seen in almost all mainstream party congresses in Türkiye, especially in the AKP and its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

Another reason for Erdoğan’s discomfort is the possibility that a change of leader in the CHP could dissipate the frustration among all opposition factions following the defeat in the May elections, as Demiralp mentioned.

“From here, I say to our 1.5 million members: I declare mobilization starting tomorrow to make up for the sadness we have experienced and to enter the second century with victory,” he said, referring to the nearing critical local elections to be held in March 2024.

The current metropolitan mayors will undoubtedly play an important role in this mobilization, as will the mayors of the provinces and districts. It can be assumed that those among the mayors who supported Kılıçdaroğlu will work in harmony with the new headquarters after the heat of the elections wears off.

Local elections, alliance with İYİ Party

In Istanbul, this integration has already been achieved through the Istanbul Provincial Congress, which is also key to the outcome of the congress. It is expected that there will be no problem with the candidature of Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, and that the new provincial chairman will work in harmony with him.

Another important point is whether the CHP- İYİ Party cooperation that helped win the 2019 local elections will be re-established.
Two party leaders were in a row after the elections, as Akşener was accusing Kılıçdaroğlu of insisting on being the presidential candidate against all odds, and Kılıçdaroğlu accused Akşener of spoiling the six-party opposition alliance with her conditions upon the elections. He said, “I entered the elections with a dagger in my back,” a rhetoric that backfired on the delegates.

Even though in 2019, the unprecedented İYİ Party-CHP alliance brought the CHP to the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality after almost 25 years of Erdoğan dominance, Akşener was stating that her İYİ Party will enter elections without any alliance.

Now the situation may change. Akşener’s congratulatory message to Özel could pave the way for a new cooperation, if not an alliance, which will have to be different from the old one. Özgür Özel, in his first message about the local election alliance, said “We will also meet with Ms. Meral Akşener”.

According to T24 writer Eray Görgülü’s report, İYİ Party is waiting for a kind of apology, stating that they are expecting “the acknowledgments of their righteousness.”

When alliance politics derailed

Kılıçdaroğlu’s strategy to confront President Tayyip Erdoğan and the People’s Alliance with alliance politics was correct.

He had created this strategy together with İYİ Party leader Meral Akşener. However, Kılıçdaroğlu and the narrow cadre around him ignored the warnings from the İYİ Party about “a candidate who could win.”

The feeling that the May 14 parliamentary elections and the May 28 presidential elections could be won if İmamoğlu or Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, were nominated against Erdoğan, which was the expectation not only of Akşener but also of the CHP base, was ingrained not only in the CHP but also in the opposition electorate.

Özel’s promise to “lift up the downcast faces and put a smile on the sullen faces” seemed to have some resonance.
The Millet Alliance train was first shaken when Akşener left the table. Then it was derailed after Kılıçdaroğlu guaranteed 39 deputies to the 3 opposition parties in the 6-party table, which cannot be secured if not given by CHP electorate votes. It was toppled by Kılıçdaroğlu’s secret ministerial protocol with the Zafer Party, a far-right nationalist party, after the first round of presidential elections. Looking back, we can see this.

Kılıçdaroğlu’s accusations that İYİ Party leader Meral Akşener and then those who called for “change” were stabbing him in the back, and his patronizing rhetoric such as “I changed them first” backfired.

With his “dagger” rhetoric, Kılıçdaroğlu probably broke the status quo tendency of the CHP’s base in favor of change.
The CHP base gave a lesson in democracy to its leader, to the opposition voters outside the CHP, and to the stagnation of “one candidate, unanimous election” that has become widespread in Türkiye.

This aspect of Özel’s election is also important.