Political flux behind Turkish Airline’s aircraft purchase from Airbus

Germany’s national airline Lufthansa announced on December 19 that it signed a $9 billion deal with US aircraft manufacturer Boeing for the purchase of 100 aircraft and with Airbus for the purchase of 60 aircraft. Four days earlier, on December 15, Turkish Airlines (THY) announced that it had signed its largest-ever aircraft purchase agreement with European Union (EU) aircraft manufacturer Airbus.

It is a technical issue to discuss the fact that THY bought all the 355 planes it needed from Airbus, while its Airbus partner Germany bought them from the US company, and it is for the Turkish Parliament to question that. The issue takes on a political dimension as Airbus is the co-producer of the Eurofighter Typhoon, which Türkiye wants to buy to replace the F-16 fighter jets because the US has put forward political conditions to sell to Türkiye. Also, President Tayyip Erdoğan says that Germany is blocking the sale of Eurofighters.

Airbus and the Eurofighter block?

Türkiye’s desire to buy NATO-compatible Eurofighter Typhoon fighters if the United States continues to refuse to sell F-16s was first officially expressed by Yaşar Güler, the Minister of National Defense, during the meetings of the Turkish Grand National Assembly’s Planning and Budget Commission. This was one day before President Tayyip Erdoğan’s November 17 trip to Germany, which took place amid tensions over the Gaza crisis. Güler, who was previously Türkiye’s Chief of General Staff, was, in effect, announcing to NATO Türkiye’s need for the aircraft. He was also announcing that the UK and Spain, Eurofighter co-producers, were trying to convince Germany.

The Eurofighter partnership also includes Italy; the UK and Germany share 33 percent each, Italy 21 percent, and Spain 14 percent. The German and Spanish programmes are carried out within the framework of Airbus.

The 4.5th generation Eurofighter Typhoon is a relatively expensive aircraft, with a unit cost of around $90 million, close to the 5th generation F-35, which costs almost $115 million. The 4th generation F-16s are close to 20 million dollars. However, the $18,000 hourly flight cost is cheaper than the $22,000 F-16 and the $36,000 F-35. Maintenance costs are also reportedly lower.

Despite Erdoğan saying, “If not, we will buy another,” in Germany, in the shadow of the “Israel-Holocaust” controversy with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Güler told reporters on December 16 that the Eurofighter Typhoon is “the only aircraft they see as the best alternative” to the F-16s for Türkiye. The day before, THY had signed a huge deal with Airbus.

Defence, trade, and politics seemed to be intertwined.

Political atmosphere: F-16, Sweden, Greece, Israel

On December 14, US President Joe Biden told President Erdoğan on the phone that he expected Sweden’s NATO membership protocol to be completed “as soon as possible.” On December 18, on his return from Hungary, Erdoğan revealed that Biden had told him that he, too, had promised to remove the Congressional obstacle to the sale of F-16s if Erdoğan could get Sweden’s approval through Parliament.

Erdoğan could easily overcome the parliamentary obstacle by convincing his partner, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, with whom he is negotiating a candidate for local elections. But it is doubtful that Biden will easily overcome the Congressional obstacle.

The block of the F-16 sale in Congress stems from the Greek and Armenian lobbies. We know that Biden spoke about the positive impact of Erdoğan’s friendly rhetoric during his visit to Athens on December 7 in their phone call. (Former Foreign Minister and DEVA leader Ali Babacan questioned whether Erdoğan’s words “We don’t want dogfighting” meant that Türkiye was giving up its sovereign rights in the Aegean.) On the same day, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan gave a message of normalisation with Armenia, which is on the way to mending its relations with Azerbaijan. However, while these developments were taking place, Türkiye was on its way to normalise relations with Israel. Hamas had not yet attacked Israel, and Israel had not yet launched an indiscriminate massacre of civilians in Gaza.

Russia and Canada dimensions

As can be seen, the political balance is highly complex.

On top of this, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit Türkiye in early 2024. Putin is offering Türkiye the Su-35, which is not NATO-compatible, or the Su-57, whose serial production has been delayed. On the other hand, it was after Erdoğan’s decision to buy the S-400 from Russia that the United States (under Donald Trump, who is now likely to come back to power) removed Türkiye from the F-35 programme, of which Türkiye is a co-producer, and blocked the F-16s it wanted to buy to replace them.

On the other hand, it is reported that the problem with Canada, which Erdoğan explained on the plane, stems from the camera systems used in Baykar’s Bayraktar UAVs. Despite Selçuk Bayraktar’s statement that Türkiye produces better camera systems than those produced by the Canadian company, Erdoğan’s raising the issue indicates that the problem has not been fully resolved. Canada, which had previously objected to the use of the TB-2 by Azerbaijan against Armenia, has now reportedly put forward the condition of Sweden’s NATO membership.

THY-Airbus, Lufthansa-Boeing

Let’s talk about the commercial aspect of the issue.

Lufthansa will buy 100 B737-8 Maxes from Boeing for 9 billion dollars, 40 of which are firm orders and 60 of which are right of emption. At the same time, it has also signed a deal for 60 A220-300s from Airbus, 40 of which are firm orders and 20 of which are purchase rights.

THY, on the other hand, has decided to purchase 250 A321 NEOs, 150 of which are firm orders and 100 of which are right of emption; 80 A350-900s, 60 of which are firm orders and 20 of which are right of emption; 15 A350-1000s, all of which are firm orders; and 10 A350-Freighters, 5 of which are firm orders and 5 of which are right of emption, for a total of 355 aircraft, all from Airbus.

It was not disclosed how much Türkiye would pay for this giant deal. THY’s largest shareholder is the Turkish Wealth Fund (TWF), chaired by President Erdoğan, with a 49.12 percent stake.

After this giant deal with Airbus, the amount of which we do not know, do you think that the German objection to the sale of the Eurofighter, of which Airbus is also a manufacturer, will be lifted?