War, destruction, shifting balances: How do you remember 2023?

If asked how we remember 2023, we would probably say that we are glad it is behind us. Unfortunately, 2024 doesn’t look any better. But haven’t we also used such expressions for the past years? The years when the world was free from war and conflict are few. Nevertheless, what we call major war have not happened since the Second World War. The European continent has remained calm except for the Yugoslav succession wars. Since the Vietnam war, eastern Asia has also been quiet. Most wars and conflicts have been in the Middle East and the Islamic world. But we seem to be entering another era. While the COVID outbreak briefly shifted the focus to health, violence stayed in the background. But since the beginning of 2022, the situation has started to change rapidly. The method of solving problems with weapons has become the norm.

War not peace

In February last year, Russia attempted to invade Ukraine, claiming that NATO’s possible expansion was against its interests. Hoping for a quick solution, President Putin failed miserably and the war is still raging. While this year there has been talk of Ukraine not only stopping Russia but also repelling it, it is now clear that the outcome of this protracted war will depend on who is more resilient. Despite Russia’s superiority in both troops and equipment, whether the West, particularly the United States, will continue its support for Ukraine will be the most talked about and debated issue next year.

In October, Hamas launched a brutal attack on Israel. Since then, Israel has been even more ruthless in flattening Hamas-ruled Gaza. Already more than twenty thousand people are reported to have been killed. It is impossible for Hamas not to have anticipated Israel’s reaction. Although it is argued that this attack is motivated by Israel’s expansion of Jewish settlements in violation of the agreements and Israel’s rapprochement with many Arab countries in accordance with the Abrahamic Accords, the damage caused is more than regional. The Palestinian people are suffering and the US, aligned with Israel, has limited leverage even for a ceasefire.

Violence is seen as the only means to achieve goals

Whether we agree or disagree on the origins of these attacks, they all have one thing in common. Countries no longer expect negotiations or diplomatic solutions to issues that have been postponed for years, even decades. Violence is seen as the only means to achieve goals. Another example of this happened in the Caucasus. After three decades of waiting, Azerbaijan decided to take matters into its own hands. With a better equipped and trained army, it mobilized to retake Karabagh, which the international community had already recognized as Azeri territory, but had failed to resolve.

Finally, last month Venezuela threatened neighboring Guyana with the seizure of a large part of its territory based on a sham referendum in which only Venezuelans participated.

All this shows that brute force is preferred to achieve results. We see that the US-led international order, which was established after the Second World War, is now being shaken. As a result of the war in Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas, Russia and the United States have taken turns blocking resolutions from the UN Security Council. While the globe is becoming bipolar, with the United States and China leading the way, countries such as Brazil, India, and Turkey are rising as regional powers. Although Russia is a nuclear power, it is hard to argue that it is a global power of the same caliber. The Soviet Union collapsed because of its inability to develop itself technologically and economically. Russia’s energy resources and nuclear weapons are not enough to make it a global player.

The conflicts will persist in 2024

However, there are also small countries that are exhibiting an inflated sense of importance. The Gulf States leverage their energy revenues to exert influence, both regionally and occasionally globally.

The European Union, as has been argued for a long time, has not evolved into anything more than a commercial and economic power. The applications from Finland and Sweden demonstrate that it has been unable to construct its own force and that NATO is the primary protector of Europe. However, it is trying to pioneer in an area like Artificial Intelligence. Next year there will be elections of the European Parliament and the right and far-right parties are likely to gain more ground. The EU will continue to grapple with the migration crisis next year. Meanwhile, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced the European Union to reconsider its enlargement. With Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia joining the Balkan countries in the membership pot, the EU’s order is set to change. The European Union will need to reevaluate its membership patterns and decision-making processes in the near future.

As of 2024, it is anticipated that the aforementioned conflicts will persist. In particular, it is unclear whether the tensions in the Middle East will expand or how they will evolve. The constant attacks on merchant ships in the Sea of Oman is an indication of this. None of these issues have a short-term solution. So we will live with these troubling events for some time to come.

Other issues awaiting us

Natural and man-made disasters await us not just in 2024 but in the years to come. We will find out where Artificial Intelligence will go, whether it is a miracle or an existential threat. But we should not forget that it will ultimately depend on who uses them and how. Like any new technology, it will have positive and negative sides, and preventing its abuse will be ensured according to the regulations to be established.

Perhaps the biggest danger is false information and its rapid spread and credibility through technological means. In fact, people are still debating what really causes problems like climate change, which they are personally experiencing. As technology advances rapidly, disinformation becomes a bigger problem. While spreading fake news is an old tactic, today it can reach millions of people and influence their opinions in much more sophisticated ways. Experts are not trusted. Social media platforms such as Tik Tok are increasingly being embraced as sources of news.

The biggest worry for 2024 is whether former President Donald Trump will win the US presidential election at the end of the year. If such a possibility materializes, all the international and transnational problems described above will take on a negative new dimension. Trump was unprepared in his first term, but now the Republican Party is ready to support him. Therefore, instead of being forced to adjust his ideas and policies as he did in his first term, he will be ready to implement them.

What we can expect?

In short, the world will see a continuation of what happened last year. What we can expect is whether the West, and the US in particular, will be able to honor its agreements and promises in the context of NATO or Taiwan. If Russia is successful in Ukraine, its threats and aggression against the Baltics or other neighbors will test NATO’s behavior. Similarly, a potential Chinese assault on Taiwan will serve as a litmus test for the United States’ level of fidelity to the agreements it has previously made about this matter. The January 13th presidential elections in Taiwan should be closely watched.

On the other hand, there will be elections in the United Kingdom and India. While a change of government is expected in the UK, it seems that Prime Minister Modi will continue governing in India. Russia will also go through an electoral process in 2024, but the outcome is already clear.

Turkey’s 2023

As for Turkey, 2023 opened with an earthquake and caused great devastation. We had presidential and parliamentary elections and economic problems continued with high inflation. The fight against terrorism never ended. The recent loss of life is testament to this. In foreign policy, efforts to improve bilateral relations continued. The most significant enhancement was achieved specifically with Greece. Relations with Israel, which were gradually mending, worsened once more following the Hamas attack and the subsequent retaliation. There were significant rapprochements with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the Middle East, with whom Turkey did not have very warm relations.

There has been no improvement in relations with the European Union. Borrell, the High Representative for Foreign Policy, was asked in the middle of the year to conduct a study on how relations with Turkey could evolve. Borrell presented his report at the end of November, but member states considered other issues more important and preferred to discuss it in 2024.

Turkey’s candidacy for EU membership is no longer on the agenda. Perhaps the only interesting development is that Georgia has also become a candidate and the geographical claim of Turkey’s opponents is no longer valid. But we cannot say that Turkey has taken any concrete steps to improve relations with the EU beyond some platitudes. In 2024, Belgium and Hungary will hold the presidency respectively. It would be very wrong to rely on Hungary for our candidacy. Budapest carries little significance within the European Union beyond being regarded as an annoyance. Therefore, there is no need for excitement. Apart from the lack of progress in the areas of fundamental rights, freedom of expression and the rule of law, the non-implementation of ECtHR judgments is hampering the development of our relations with the EU. The Cyprus issue remains a constant item on the agenda.

What Turkey should expect?

Our relations with the US have not changed much, and the first issue in 2024 will be whether our objection to Sweden’s NATO membership will be lifted, and whether the US will allow us to sell F-16 fighters in return. One thing is worth remembering, though. It should be considered a consolation prize even if we get the F-16s instead of the superior F-35s. This is the price of the S-400 missile defense system, which was bought from Russia but not made operational. Our closeness with Russia continues at this point thanks to the personal relations of the Presidents of the two countries, as it has been for years. Otherwise, Turkey, which condemned Russia’s aggression against Ukraine at the United Nations, starting with the occupation of Crimea, does not pursue similar policies with Russia not only on these issues, but also in Cyprus, the Caucasus, the Balkans, Syria and Libya. In fact, Turkey and Russia have different positions on almost every issue.

In 2024, we can anticipate that Turkish foreign policy would retain its personal and ideological nature, possibly to a similar extent as it did in previous years. Turkey will try to mend relations with many countries that have deteriorated in the past, but it remains to be seen how much confidence our interlocutors will have with Ankara as to whether this will be sustainable. In the international arena, it is necessary to prioritize interests over emotions. Turkey has at times acted in the opposite direction. The real impact of our foreign policy, which we claim to be effective, depends not only on having international credibility, but also on keeping our promises and acting in accordance with the rule of law.