Erdoğan’s strategic nod for Istanbul mayoral race: Murat Kurum

President and ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) leader Tayyip Erdoğan took a strategic step and entrusted the local election goal of “Istanbul Again” to former minister Murat Kurum. Kurum was not the candidate most likely to take the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality from the main opposition Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) popular mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu. For example, the recent poll by MetroPoll shows that Selçuk Bayraktar and Ali Yerlikaya were the AKP figures who scored closest to İmamoğlu. Murat Kurum, the former Minister of Environment, Urbanisation, and Climate Change, was, on the other hand, 15 points behind him.

So we can say that Erdoğan’s choice of Kurum was a strategic step.

Of course, it is also possible to take the easy way out and interpret it as “If he wins, Erdoğan will have won; if he loses, Kurum will have lost.” Just like the previous election, where he compared İmamoğlu to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Sisi, whom he considered an enemy at the time, and said, “Either Binali or Sisi.” But if we should not opt for an easy answer and see that Erdoğan’s choice is a strategic step considered with the other 25 mayoral candidates.

Kurum: Technocrat politician

Murat Kurum, 47, is a member of a generation that opened their eyes to politics with Erdoğan.

In 2002, when the AKP came to power, he was a 26-year-old, newlywed civil engineer working on construction sites. His rise began in 2005 when he joined the Housing Development Administration (TOKİ) as a specialist; he had a master’s degree in urban transformation. In 2006, Erdoğan appointed Kurum as the head of the European side of Istanbul for TOKİ. In 2009, Kurum was appointed General Director of Emlak Konut, a TOKİ partnership, and in 2018, he was appointed Minister of Environment, Urbanisation, and Climate Change.

His official CV says that 356,000 social housing units were built under his ministry, but it does not mention the law facilitating the sale of land to foreigners or the privatisation of public lands the size of Belgium.

Kurum is a technocrat politician who does not have his own voter base and tries to do the given job with the highest efficiency, just as Erdoğan wants. He is a shining example of Erdoğan opening the era of technocrat mayors after technocrat ministers.

Istanbul will be the priority

Erdoğan preferred Kurum because he already had this confidence and because he had the backing of the business community, particularly the construction industry, which was suffering as a result of the economic crisis.

Erdoğan will focus all his political, administrative, and economic power on Istanbul until March 31st, so that Kurum is elected.

We can deduce this from the profile of the 26 mayoral candidates he announced on January 7.

16 of the 26 candidates are current mayors. Among them are metropolitan cities such as Bursa, Balkesir, Denizli, Erzurum, Kocaeli, and Ordu. The message here is, “You know what to do. Don’t bother me too much. I will have my hands full.” Erdoğan does indeed have his hands full with the economic situation on the one hand and serious foreign policy problems on the other, but until March 31st, Istanbul will be at the top of his list.

Now it’s opposition’s turn

If he wins, Kurum might be considered the AKP’s new prince. If he loses, he will continue as the chairman of the Parliament’s Environment Commission, if Erdoğan sees fit.

The question is what Erdogan is willing to risk to retake Istanbul. Are there any obstacles that they have already considered in order to avoid a defeat, as happened in 2019 with a repeated election?

Before Erdoğan announced his preference for Kurum, CHP leader Özgür Özel was saying, “They cannot find a candidate to win.” Now Erdoğan has said, “Kurum is the candidate who will win.”

On January 15, he will announce the name he will put up against CHP candidate Mansur Yavaş for Ankara Metropolitan Municipality and others, including Izmir.

Now it is the CHP’s turn. Özel was supposed to announce some more metropolitan candidates last week; İmamoğlu was supposed to announce Istanbul district candidates. Neither of them happened. This week, ahead of the rally against the “constitutional coup attempt” on January 14 and Erdoğan’s Ankara announcement on January 15, it remains to be seen whether the CHP will make a move against the Kurum move.

Politics is heating up.