Turkish foreign affairs: Fidan’s watchful eye and the ambassador puzzle

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s glance at Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç’s cell phone has become a hot topic in Ankara politics. We will get to that, but first, let me tell you the news. When it was revealed that no replacement for Türkiye’s Ambassador to Washington Murat Mercan, who will complete his term on January 14 due to his 65th birthday, had been named as of January 8, I asked officials. Had there been a name proposed to the US to replace Mercan as ambassador, but the approval, the “aggreement” had not yet been received?

On the morning of January 9, I received the answer; no, there had not yet been a name requested for the “aggreement”.

In fact, we are going through a period of serious problems with the US, from the purchase of F-16s with Sweden’s NATO membership as a precondition to the Gaza Crisis and Israel, from support for the PKK presence in Syria to Fethullah Gülen’s presence in the US.

Although both the Foreign Ministry and President Tayyip Erdoğan’s Beştepe cadres know that Mercan’s term of office is due to expire – since there has been no attempt to extend it – they do not seem to have taken any action on the matter, at least according to publicly available information.

Despite being a political appointment

In other words, if Mercan returns to Türkiye on January 12, as he posted on his “X” message on January 4, Türkiye’s relations with the United States will go on without an ambassador in Washington at one of the most problematic times. Although there is a strong diplomatic staff in the Washington embassy, it would not affect the functioning of the state. You may also ask what Mercan’s absence will change. It was known that Erdoğan did not take Mercan to some important meetings recently.

For example, during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on September 21, Israel’s ambassador to Washington, Mike Herzog, was present, but Mercan was not. During Erdoğan and Fidan’s meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on January 6, US Ambassador to Ankara Jeff Flake was present, but Mercan was not.

It was well known that Erdoğan did not include diplomats who had been trained as career civil servants in the Foreign Office in some of his meetings. But Mercan was not like that. He was one of Erdoğan’s most trusted political appointees. In fact, despite his known closeness to former President Abdullah Gül, he had appointed Mercan, an AKP deputy from Eskişehir and deputy energy minister (he is the father-in-law of Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar), first as ambassador to Tokyo and then as ambassador to Washington.

What had changed?

Another political appointment?

Diplomatic journalist Barçın Yinanç listed some of the names among the current staff of the Foreign Ministry, including Deputy Minister under Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, current Permanent Representative to the UN Sedat Önal and Fidan’s Deputy Minister Burak Akçapar.

However, it is also rumored that Erdoğan may make a political appointment in Washington that Fidan would be comfortable working with.

The preferences of Erdoğan and Fidan will also show whether a new era in foreign policy in which the Foreign Affairs will once again gain weight has begun.

Fidan’s remarks in his speech to the Parliament’s Plan and Budget Commission on November 20 signaled that the Foreign Ministry would undergo a transformation similar to that of the National Intelligence Organization (MIT), which he headed for 13 years:

“As good as our diplomats are individually, our institutional capacity is in need of improvement, so we really need to do a lot institutionally. What does this mean? You have very good diplomats, but when you put them all together, you may not have very good diplomacy.”

So, whether or not the new ambassador to Washington is a professional appointment will also have political implications.

Claims about Yalçındağ

In this context, the name of businessman Mehmet Ali Yalçındağ was circulating yesterday. One reason for this is that Namık Tan, who served as ambassador to Tel Aviv and Washington and is currently a CHP Istanbul deputy, said to Fidan during the budget talks at the Turkish Grand National Assembly that if you were going to make a political appointment to Washington, you should at least appoint a businessman like Muhtar Kent, who can open every door there. The mention of Kent, who was the president of Coca-Cola for years, in the Foreign Affairs budget talks brought to mind Yalçındağ, who stepped down last week from his three-term presidency of the Türkiye-US Business Council (TAİK).

Yalçındağ, who was the bridge between Erdoğan and Trump during the Donald Trump era, is the husbant of former TÜSİAD President Arzuhan Doğan Yalçındağ, and the son-in-law of Aydın Doğan. I met with Yalçındağ. He said he had not received any proposal. He was preparing to attend the handover ceremony for the sale of BluTV, founded by his son Aydın Doğan Yalçındağ, to the US media giant Warner-Bros-Discovery, and now he has been elected President of the Türkiye-Germany Business Council.

What kind of ambassador do we need?

Türkiye’s problems with the US are strategic, at the presidential level. There is a president in the US who has not met with the Turkish president since he was elected four years ago, except for international meetings. Even if Türkiye takes an irreversible step by approving Sweden’s NATO membership, it is highly doubtful that Joe Biden will be able to secure the sale of F-16s to Türkiye with shaky Congressional support. Likewise, it is doubtful that he will cut political, military and financial support to the PKK’s subsidiary organizations. Moreover, that support existed even under Trump.

Of course, there are limits to what ambassadors can do, especially in today’s political dynamics. Still, Türkiye needs an ambassador in Washington who has access to the ethnic lobbies in the White House, Congress and the business world, instead of trying to greet Ankara through Turkish associations and groups there.

Let’s talk about Fidan’s gaze

The image of Foreign Minister Fidan looking at the cell phone of Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç on January 7 at Erdoğan’s ceremony in Istanbul to introduce 26 mayoral candidates, including Murat Kurum, is still being discussed.

Since the image of Fidan looking at the cell phone of Fahrettin Altun, the Presidential Communications Director Fahrettin Altun, when he was the head of the National Intelligence Organization (MİT), is also remembered, the media has commented on his professional deformation.

In fact, the video footage shows that when Justice Minister Tunç’s hand reaches into his pocket and tries to see the message or caller on his phone, Fidan looks at it for a second or so and does not try to read it at length. Even if we say that it was not a deliberate “intelligence gathering” effort, an expert eye can certainly read and make sense of a lot in that one second. Should we say that some people are born for some jobs, even if it is a reflex rather than a deliberate act? I don’t know.