Inside Erdoğan’s MIT speech: Türkiye’s 5-legged security doctrine

From President Tayyip Erdoğan’s speech at the 97th anniversary ceremony of the National Intelligence Organization (MIT) on January 10, it is possible to draw a few important conclusions or ask questions in terms of Türkiye’s security approach. Before proceeding with the analysis, let us make a few brief notes.

“We are living in an era of great uncertainty,” İbrahim Kalın, the new head of the National Intelligence Organization (MIT), said at the beginning of his speech with an academic-oriented assessment of the situation with quotations ranging from Kant to Imam Ghazali, leaving the statements and expansions with political and current weight to the President.

He announced the “Extreme Right Movements in Western Countries” report and that the opening of National Intelligence Academy, which was established on February 9, 2023 under Hakan Fidan with the aim of becoming a center for intelligence and political analysis and concept production as well as a technical R&D center within MIT, as of January 6, 2024. Talha Köse, Head of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Ibn Haldun University, and a SETA member, was appointed as the head of the Academy.

Foreign Minister Fidan, the architect of MIT’s transformation since 2010, was not present at the first anniversary ceremony of Kalın, whom Erdoğan appointed as the head of MIT after working as his closest advisor for years. He was in Central Asia to mediate a border dispute between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Now back to Erdoğan’s speech.

MIT speech: “Increasing espionage attacks”

First, I will share the relevant part of Erdoğan’s speech and then I will share the conclusion or question.

“We are aware that Türkiye’s upright and resilient stance in regional crises, especially the massacres in Gaza, disturbs some people and disrupts some people’s calculations. The recent intensification of espionage activities against our country is just one of the manifestations of this discomfort.”

First conclusion: Espionage, i.e. spying activities against Türkiye are increasing. Does this espionage activity originate only from Israel, as in the example given by Erdoğan? Which other countries and organizations have seen an increase in espionage activity? Do these include Türkiye’s NATO allies such as the US and Greece, as well as regional rivals such as Russia, Iran or Arab countries? In addition to low-level spies – mostly Palestinian – working on behalf of Israel, have there been spies from other countries who have been caught, prosecuted or deported?

Cyber attacks have been carried out

“We proudly follow MIT’s successes in preventing cyber-attacks against state officials and critical institutions.”

Second conclusion: We have learned that cyber-attacks were carried out against state officials and critical institutions during the period we are going through and that these attacks were prevented by MIT. I wonder to whom and to which institutions these attacks were directed and who was behind them? Were any of them caught, brought to justice and punished?

Information security vulnerabilities

“With the widespread use of smartphones, the use of foreign messaging applications among public officials has also increased. Unfortunately, many information, notes and documents belonging to our official institutions are also shared through these applications. It is clear that this situation constitutes a serious vulnerability in terms of information security.”

Third conclusion: The President says that senior public officials share official information and documents on their cell phones, which creates an information security vulnerability. I wonder if any confidential information and documents have fallen into the hands of hostile countries and organizations in this way. Erdoğan went on to say that some European countries impose restrictions on certain “levels and positions of public personnel” and asked public institutions to use messaging applications developed by Turkish companies under the guidance of MIT? Will MIT guarantee the competence and security of this software? Will the MIT be responsible if problems arise again? And in this way, will all correspondence, official as well as unofficial, be filtered by the MIT?

Conceptual implication: axis shift

There were some statements in Erdoğan’s speech that were considered to be used in news reports as “headline material”. For example stentences like, “This is only the first step” in relation to Israel and the espionage operations, “They will not come out of their lairs,” “We may leave treason and terrorism until tomorrow, but we will not let anyone get away with it” in relation to the PKK. However, perhaps one of the most important parts of the speech in terms of security and foreign policy was a thesis he emphasized at the very beginning:

“Contrary to the claims of some, Türkiye has not experienced an axis shift, on the contrary, Türkiye has found its true axis after a long search. As in the past, we could not act with the concern of ‘What will others say? Every decision we take in domestic and foreign politics and every policy we implement is completely based on Türkiye.”

Pointing out that security concepts changed and an arms race started with the Russia-Ukraine crisis as the geopolitical perspective came to the forefront in the global arena, Erdoğan announced that Türkiye also changed its security concept in this process.

5-legged new security concept

The President announced Türkiye’s transition to a new security concept with the following words:

“At a time when asymmetric threats have increased and diversified so much, it is of course unthinkable for Türkiye’s security concept to remain the same. We are renewing and updating the national security sensitivities of our country according to the changing conditions and revising the threat ranking.”

He then listed the 5 objectives of the state’s security policy (including defense, interior and foreign affairs), which are ostensibly to strengthen the function and personnel structure of the MIT:

• Combating terrorism and espionage, which are already the primary threats,
• Irregular (illegal) migration, which is a growing problem at both national and international level,
• Organized crime, which has come to the fore with recent police and intelligence operations,
• Xenophobia and Islamophobia,
• Psychological operations based on sect, origin and belief.

Erdoğan also called on the National Intelligence Organization (MIT) to be “vigilant” about the use of social media, which has “turned into a hotbed of discord and hatred” in these areas.

Let this be the last conclusion: tighter control over social media is on the way.