Erdoğan’s political risk: Will the parliament approve Sweden’s NATO bid without F-16s

President Tayyip Erdoğan is on the verge of one of the most difficult decisions of his political life. He has to take this strategic step with high political risk not only as a president but also as a rulnig Justice and Development Party (AKP) leader in the Turkish Grand National Assembly.

Parliament’s winter recess ends on January 16. Until the outlawed PKK attack on January 12, the most prominent item on the agenda was the dispute between the Constitutional Court and the Court of Cassation over the imprisoned lawmaker Can Atalay case, i.e. the judicial crisis, and it is still one of the most important items on the agenda. But the January 12 attack, in which 9 soldiers were martyred, brought the security issue to the forefront. Parliament will open with Yaşar Güler, Minister of National Defense, and Hakan Fidan, Minister of Foreign Affairs, briefing the General Assembly on the latest attack; a controversial session is expected.

Erdoğan’s difficult decision, which carries political risks, could affect not only Türkiye’s security and foreign relations, but also its economy: Will he get Sweden’s NATO membership voted on and approved by the Turkish Grand National Assembly before the US administration takes steps to sell F-16s?

Difficult equation, difficult decision, political risk

Erdoğan explained the difficult equation with the United States in the most understandable way to the journalists on December 18. US President Joe Biden had telephoned Erdoğan on December 14 to say that if Erdogan could get Sweden’s NATO membership through the Turkish Parliament, he would make sure that the sale of F-16s to Türkiye overcame a Congressional hurdle. Türkiye justified its veto on the grounds that Sweden was not sufficiently opposed to the PKK’s anti-Türkiye activities. On December 16, the day before Erdogan’s trip to Germany, which was dominated by his Gaza and the Holocaust comments, Defense Minister Guler said that if not F-16s, they wanted to buy Eurofighters. It was a risky move; he was expressing Türkiye’s defense deficit and the need for fighter jets.

We should also recall that on that phone call, Biden praised Erdoğan’s efforts to rapprochement with Greece by visiting Athens on December 7. Let us also recall that on December 20, Erdoğan congratulated Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Sisi, whom he called a “coup plotter”, for winning his third election. These steps were like a message to the United States that they did not want these planes to threaten their allies in the region, while the fight against the PKK was also a defense of NATO borders.

Attacks before the vote

All that remained was for the protocol to be passed by Parliament, but the PKK attacked Turkish troops in Northern Iraq on December 22nd. The announcement that 12 soldiers had been martyred in Iraq strained politics.

I wonder if Erdoğan would have allowed the Swedish protocol to pass in the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Turkish Grand National Assembly with AKP votes.

Erdoğan’s sending the Swedish resolution to Parliament, as he had told Biden at the NATO Summit on July 11-12, 2023, was postponed by the PKK’s suicide attack on the Interior Ministry on October 1, the day Parliament was to open, followed by the downing by US troops of a Turkish UCAV targeting PKK targets in Syria and the eruption of the Gaza Crisis.

Nevertheless, Erdoğan signed and sent the bill to parliament on October 24, despite the objections of his ally MHP leader Bahçeli.

Despite the December 22 PKK attack, Erdoğan took the risk and the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee approved Sweden’s membership on December 26. Moreover, not only the AKP, but also the MHP and the main opposition CHP voted in favor.

Now, just before Parliament reopens and Sweden’s NATO approval comes to the final stage of the parliamentary plenary, the PKK attacked again on January 12 and the announcement of the martyrdom of 9 Turkish soldiers in Iraq has shaken politics again.

Why is the political risk high?

The approval of Sweden’s NATO membership by a vote in the plenary session of the Turkish parliament is an irreversible step, meaning that Turkey will not be able to reverse its decision at some stage due to the unanimity system in NATO.

The concern in Ankara is that Biden might say to Erdogan “We tried, but it didn’t work” about F-16’s after the Swedish ratification. This is the situation with high political risk.

On the other hand, there is a painful and very costly example in Türkiye’s collective memory. On September 12, 1980, Kenan Evren, the leader of the military coup of September 12, 1980, gave his approval to return to NATO’s military wing (which he had left in response to Greece’s 1974 Cyprus operation) in exchange for the US turning a blind eye to the coup and the violations of rights and democracy it brought about. This process, in which Biden, a young senator at the time, played a role, was publicized with the distortion that the US would ensure Türkiye’s entry into the European Union along with Greece, but did not keep its “military promise”.

When is the Swedish vote?

Aside from the Gaza Crisis, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Türkiye on January 6 was intended to convince Erdoğan that if the Swedish resolution passed the Parliament, the US State Department would write to Congress authorizing the sale, and that this was all that was needed to get through the 15-day objection period in Congress without incident.

Blinken’s subsequent trip to Athens to promise the F-35 was also intended to ensure that the Greek lobby in Congress would not block the sale of the F-16. In this case, the Israeli and Armenian lobbies also become Biden’s problem.

The Biden administration says “our word is our word” but Erdoğan does not want to say “I was deceived” about the F-16.

In the end, Türkiye is not helpless. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Su-35 and Su-57 offer is there. However, we can infer from Defense Minister Guler’s Eurofighter statement that Türkiye needs fighter jets until it can build its own, but does not want to break with NATO and therefore the West.

Therefore, whether the US will keep its word will be a test for NATO’s credibility.

Back to the beginning: Will Erdoğan take the political risk and get Sweden’s NATO membership voted on and approved by the General Assembly in the coming week or weeks?

All eyes are on Parliament.