A paradigm change needed in TRNC

Cyprus is not a serious problem in the eyes of the international community today, but it remains on the agenda as the region around it begins to heat up. It will be under the spotlight again in the coming days.

The United Nations’ efforts to take frozen negotiations out of the refrigerator, the Gaza drama, the Red Sea crisis, the situation in Syria and Lebanon, Russia’s increasing presence in the region, China’s attempt to create a “Blue Chinese Homeland” by acquiring new ports in the Mediterranean through its COSCO conglomerate, the noticeable increase in the Russian, Iranian, Chinese and Israeli population in the Turkish Cypriot lands and the change in demographics and real estate ownership have intensified international diplomatic traffic to both sides of Nicosia.

Reminded strategic value of the TRNC

There have been no conflicts flaring up on the island since 1974, except for some minor border incidents. The island, which is 71 km away from Turkey and 900 km away from Greece, is not today at the risk of falling into the sphere of influence of hostile powers as in the past. In addition to EU membership, south Cyprus is on the verge of joining even NATO if Turkey does not stay on the way as a hurdle for obvious reasons.

UN peacekeepers have almost no function other than guarding the Green Line. Every time there is a discussion to extend its mandate, the number of member countries in the UN which want this force to be deployed to other conflict regions of the world where serious bloody actions are taking place, is on the increase.

The population of TRNC (around 400 thousand souls) is not even as much as that of a district in Istanbul (for example, Esenyurt: 984 thousand). Greek Cypriots are 925 thousand. Its surface area is 9,251 km2 (35 per cent of which belongs to the TRNC). 256 km2 of which was allocated to sovereign British bases (from which fighter jets most recently took off for the Red Sea operations against the Houthis).

Therefore, Cyprus is a negligible island on a world scale in terms of its land size, population and economic assets, but strategists describe it as “an unsinkable aircraft carrier at the most critical point of the Mediterranean, surrounded by Turkey, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Greece and Israel” determines its real importance.

Especially in light of Gaza-Israel, the Ukraine war, the Russian presence in Syria spilling over into the Mediterranean, the Red Sea crisis and the struggle for energy and geopolitical influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, the strategic value of Cyprus has skyrocketed.

Turkey as an “occupying power”

I have difficulty understanding the decades-long pressure and efforts to gain concessions against Ankara on the Cyprus issue to reverse the 1974 military intervention and the declaration of the TRNC on November 15, 1983.

Think about it, the British consider Gibraltar, which controls the Strait of Gibraltar at the tip of the Iberian Peninsula, the Falklands islands off the coast of Argentina, Bermuda, Cayman, and other islands in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans, as their sovereign territory for strategic considerations. If you turn to the Americans, they have no intention whatsoever to abandon their overseas territories such as Guam, Samoa, Puerto Rico, Virgin, their military bases in dozens of countries, and the right of intervention via their 47 aircraft carriers roaming the world’s oceans to anyone.

What about the Spaniards? They reluctantly left Gibraltar, sitting normally within their territory, to the British sovereignty, but they did not want to move an inch from the Canary and Balearic Islands, let alone the cities of Ceuta and Melilla overlooking Gibraltar on the Moroccan coast. Likewise, the French still insist on retaining their overseas territories, such as Guyana, Guadeloupe, Martinique and Réunion, which are thousands of kilometres away from their lands.

And these countries see Turkey as the “occupying power” in Cyprus, which it has dominated for centuries, and they expect the Turkish Cypriots, recognized as an equal partner of the Republic of Cyprus in the constitution of August 16, 1960, but later excluded from the state apparatus from 1963 onwards, to abolish the TRNC and fall under the Greek yoke again. They are developing solution proposals that will corner the Turks in that direction.

Recognition of the Republic of Cyprus

According to TRNC Minister of Foreign Affairs Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu, the only thing that lies at the core of the Cyprus problem today is the recognition of the Republic of Cyprus as the island’s sole representative in the world and the non-recognition of Turkish Cypriots.

Without equitable progress on this issue (which is unlikely to happen since the current status quo is viewed in favour of the Greek Cyprus which is a member of the EU and the UN Security Council resolutions have not been updated), it seems that not many people will have the chance to see the light of a solution in our lifetime. The common view of the Turkish Cypriot leaders I spoke to is that Turkish Cypriots cannot consent to a solution in which the majority will dominate the minority within the Federation of Cyprus as it happened earlier.

Turkish Cypriots’ consent

That’s why the UN Secretary-General’s personal representative for Cyprus, Maria Ángela Holguin Cuéllar, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Colombia (and likely to be elected in June 2026 to replace the current Secretary-General António Guterres), is coming to the island soon. To lobby for an extension of her six-month mandate, which ends in June 2024. Of course, the British and Americans support it passionately and are putting further pressure on Ankara in this direction. The Greek Cypriot side also wants the talks to restart.

However, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ertuğruloğlu, with whom I spoke in Nicosia, said that such a thing is tantamount to “mocking our intelligence.” He emphasized that after rejecting the Annan Plan in 2005 the Greek Cypriots and Greece also overturned the table in Crans-Montana in 2017. There has been no change in their positions since then. On the contrary, they are trying to maintain the current status quo. Therefore, he believes that a new round of negotiations on the same grounds will not produce any results and that the TRNC will not accept an option other than a two-sovereign state solution.

There is considerable frustration and distrust towards the Greek Cypriot administration and the international community that has excluded North Cyprus.

High-level meeting with TRNC government

In TRNC, where I went to speak at an Eastern Mediterranean energy summit, I had the opportunity to meet first the seasoned Foreign Minister Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu, whom I knew from the time he was a diplomat in London back in the 1980s, as well as with the President Ersin Tatar, upon his invitation. I also met with think tanks, businessmen, Greek personalities, taxi drivers and waiters who are the best sources of business intelligence and political analytics. I tried to smell the air.

Thanks to the initiative of Ercan Citlioğlu, the stance of Turkey and TRNC was revealed for the first time in an outspoken fashion at the summit organized in cooperation with TUMBIFED, ASEMEDS and KTTO. After the policy statements by Ersin Tatar and Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu, the political, military, economic, legal and financial aspects of the problem were vividly discussed by me, Cihat Yaycı, Mitat Çelikpala, Necdet Pamir, Hüseyin Bağcı, Necdet Pamir, Hayriye Kahveci, Sait Akşit, Fatih Ceylan, Gülsüm Akbulut, Sertaç Hami Başeren, Hüseyin Işıksal, Süleyman Bosca, Can Çobanoğlu, Mehmet Hüsrev, Murat Tuzunkan, Turgay Deniz and Mustafa Çiraklı.

It was surprising to me that Metin Feyzioğlu, the Turkish Ambassador to the island, did not attend the meeting where vital issues were discussed.

TRNC economy depend on Turkish financial support

In this context, I would like to share some of my observations and suggestions regarding the issues that both the TRNC leadership and Turkey should address effectively:

– The TRNC economy survives largely with Turkey’s financial support. In addition, nearly 100 thousand foreign students at more than 20 universities both provide income to the state and keep the local economy alive. Without creating new financial resources, it is very difficult for the TRNC to get rid of its current inertia, improve its interaction with the outside world, find new allies, create strategic “win-win” partnerships, and develop a dynamic future vision.

– Recently, in addition to the British, Russians, Iranians, Chinese and Israelis are also competing in real estate purchases. Prices are increasing at rocket speed. Demographics are changing. New requirements emerge.

– Most of the casinos were founded and run by people of Turkey origin. It is said that most of them do not make a serious contribution to the state and economy because they constantly show losses and are not effectively controlled. On the contrary, they become shelters reportedly for organized crime networks. I think a proactive effort is needed to improve the perceived negative image of the TRNC regarding money laundering, prostitution and smuggling. Putting such a burden on a geography where the restrictions imposed by non-recognition are viewed with suspicion makes the leadership’s job even more difficult.

– The majority of foreign students come from black Africa. It is believed that a significant portion of these have nothing to do with education. Their principal desire seems to be to obtain a residence visa at minimum cost, to engage in illegal commercial activities, or to use the TRNC as a springboard for passage to Europe when they find the opportunity. By increasing the quality of education, it will be possible to make Northern Cyprus a real home of science and wisdom, thus increasing the income flow and expanding the pool of qualified human resources.

Energy self-sufficiency

– No part of the island is self-sufficient in terms of energy. TRNC receives its electricity from Greek Cypriots, and this electricity is currently produced from fuel-fired power plants. Despite the enormous solar energy, coastal wind turbine and wave energy opportunities and the 2050 decarbonization commitment, unfortunately there is no serious effort not only in the north but also in Southern Cyprus. Negotiations should now begin for the intensive use of natural gas (which is expected to be produced soon from ENI licensed fields in the south) throughout the island – within the framework of commercial contracts, of course – before it is exported to neighbouring markets. I believe that if the business world takes the lead on this issue instead of politics, win-win results can be achieved.

– Another hot topic on the agenda is the electricity transmission project to be established with a bi-directional cable between Turkey and TRNC. It would be wise and in the interest of both parties to try to do this through a formula that does not require official recognition, is based again on commercial agreements between businesses and in consultation with the EU. If the focus is on initiatives compatible with the EU’s green deal based on combating climate change, it may be relatively easier to find support from Brussels.

– When the Eastern Mediterranean Natural Gas Forum was established in 2021 between Southern Cyprus, Egypt, France, Greece, Israel, Palestine, Italy and Jordan, Turkey, the most powerful country in the region, a critical energy player and the longest coastline to the Mediterranean, was excluded from the scope. I remember that harsh conditions were put forward for the forum to accept new members (as if it was recruiting for the EU accession). It seems that the Forum, headquartered in Cairo, has not achieved much concrete results so far and has fallen into an ineffective position. I think that a new window of opportunity has now opened in the current conjuncture. It can be envisaged to create a brand new “Eastern Mediterranean Energy Community,” which will include critical issues such as oil, renewable energy, energy efficiency, electricity transmission networks, climate change, finance and similar issues in addition to natural gas in its terms of reference and by getting rid of the baggage of the past. It is necessary to start this process immediately with practical steps through think tanks.

Campaign for recognition

– Pakistan and Azerbaijan seem ready to recognize the TRNC, but without mobilizing at least 30 countries in this direction, it may not be beneficial to start this campaign with a few countries that can easily step back under Western pressure. If you ask me, the obsession with recognition should be shelved for at least the next 10 years and all efforts should be concentrated on making the TRNC a first-class democracy, economy, green energy and high technology player.

– Since settlement with the Greek Cypriots and recognition are not considered realistic in the foreseeable future, it is necessary to move beyond blaming “external powers”. Rather, it is desirable to take drastic steps to make the economy self-sustaining on the island where democratic traditions are still strong. Of primary importance are, inter alia, building technology parks, free trade zones, green energy valleys, attracting high-income tourists, encouraging organic farming, adopting and implementing EU standards as if north Cyprus too were a member, improving the quality of universities, and giving special emphasis to research and development.

– In areas where the West has blocked the TRNC’s external outreach, new alternative channels, cooperation and partnership forms should be deployed with the Turkic states, China, Russia, Africa and the Gulf countries, but within the framework of a systematic strategy, not randomly.

Engagements with the Greeek Cypriots and the EU

– Engagements with the Greek Cypriots and the EU should never be downgraded at all; they must be expanded through non-state institutions, private sector initiatives, universities, civil society, chambers of commerce and think tanks, without being obsessed with recognition. Vigorous and proactive lobbying should be used to reinforce these initiatives, paying for them generously whatever the price.

– Of course, it is necessary for the TRNC to create a significant financial resource for these efforts. Otherwise, they will be nothing more than empty rhetoric. Money will open many doors that were thought to be closed. In addition to the conditional TRNC financial support granted by Ankara, whose own economy is already in a fragile state, reinforcing the budget with direct/indirect taxes and revenues from universities, casinos, real estate sales, tourism, agriculture, green energy, yacht marinas and storage is a must. For bringing in foreign direct investment and sovereign wealth funds it is essential to create a reliable investment climate and prepare a comprehensive 2030 TRNC vision for sustainable development that will inspire a sense of realistic direction for decades.

Strategic partner relationship with Turkey

The list of the foregoing recommendations can be extended further. If these come true, it will no doubt create a wave of excitement and momentum within the country and will be closely watched by targeted international players, so it will not matter at all whether the outside world recognizes the TRNC or not.

I think that north Cyprus, which can boast a strong internal social solidarity, an economy that has entered the path of sustainable development, improved foreign engagement, and forged a healthier strategic partner relationship with Turkey that has loosened the chains of excessive dependency, can both achieve its long-term goals more easily and gain the rightful place it deserves in the world league sooner or later.

If such a new approach is not taken, people’s entrepreneurial enthusiasm is eroded, an atmosphere of trust is not created, the island’s stranded mentality becomes dominant. If the mantra of “it’s just the way it is” continues to dominate the leadership and opposition mindset, I think it is then regrettably inevitable that Turkish Cypriots will still be where they are 10 years later. In such critical geography, it is already high time to act for a game-changing performance to become the “unrecognised” attraction centre of the world.

If President Ersin Tatar, whom I came across as a pragmatic and dynamic leader who also knows well how to keep his finger on the pulse of the business world, really wants to win the presidential elections in October 2025, he has to put forward a bold 2030 road map on the issues briefly mentioned above, starting from today, and appoint competent cadres in critical positions to convince his Turkish Cypriot voters, opposition, Ankara and TRNC’s international partners.