The economic impact of Foreign Minister Fidan’s US visit

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is scheduled to visit Washington to meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken within the framework of the Turkey-US Strategic Dialogue Mechanism meetings on March 7-8, diplomatic sources confirmed to YetkinReport.

Meanwhile, intelligence sources announced on March 4 that the head of the National Intelligence Organization (MİT), İbrahim Kalın, also went to the US to meet with CIA Director William Burns. Kalın was expected to hold meetings at the White House, the State Department, and Congress. His agenda included the fight against terrorist organizations such as PKK, FETÖ, and ISIS, focusing on Syria, Iraq, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Caucasus.

Fidan and Kalın hold successive positions at MİT. The two important members of President Recep Erdoğan’s close team are likely to meet with high-level US officials in Washington around the same dates in coordination. Fidan’s meeting schedule include Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor to US President Joe Biden, but Kalın will probably meet with him as well. Fidan is also set to meet with representatives from the Senate and various think tanks.

Need to strengthen the PLO

This will be Fidan’s second meeting with Blinken in two weeks after the G20 meeting in Rio. It should be noted that, just a few days earlier, on March 2, Fidan met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, adn Türkiye is the NATO member which is in direct contact with both Ukraine and Russia. The detailed information about the meeting was not disclosed, but diplomatic sources indicated discussions on the Black Sea and the Middle East, likely involving Ukraine and the Gaza conflicts.

On March 6, the Foreign Minister participated in a joint meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League in Jeddah. During the meeting, a decision was made stating that the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people is the PLO, signifying a distinction from Hamas. At the same time, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was in Ankara as a guest of President Erdoğan.

A stronger defense of the rights of the Palestinian people in the face of Israel’s expansionist aggression requires stronger support for the PLO, and the PLO must be able to extricate itself from the quagmire of corruption and incompetence that has alienated it from its people. Erdoğan blamed not only Israel and West which “coddles” Israel with its “Holocaust guilt complex” but also Muslim countries for their lack of unity.

Gaza, Ukraine, Greece

The issues that Fidan will raise in his meeting with Bilinken within the framework of the “Strategic Mechanism” need to be addressed on regional and bilateral levels.

On a regional level, the top priority is to stop Israeli attacks in Gaza. During the meeting with Abbas, Erdogan reiterated Türkiye’s proposal for the establishment of a ceasefire guarantee mechanism ant to participate in it.

Other topics on the table include restarting negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the possibility of returning to the grain deal, and Black Sea security. Fidan had stated before that there is no question of violating the Montreux Convention regarding the Turkish Straits. The US has long been among the NATO members that want to send more warships to the Black Sea to counter Russia. For Türkiye and other NATO members bordering the Black Sea, such as Romania and Bulgaria, this would mean that Russia’s navy in the Mediterranean would flood the Black Sea. That is why Türkiye, Bulgaria, and Romania, as coastal NATO members, established a separate mechanism among themselves.

While Turkish official sources mention the Eastern Mediterranean, Cyprus, the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Syria, Yemen, Iran, and Libya as topics to be addressed ‘comprehensively,’ they specifically highlight ‘positive relations with Greece.’ This directly refers to the thaw in relations with Greece, opening the door to the F-16 deal.

Unlocking the deadlock with F-16

Long-standing tensions in Türkiye-US relations found a breakthrough on the NATO front through the sale of F-16s in the face of Sweden’s membership.

However, the resolution of this deadlock does not imply smooth sailing ahead. According to diplomatic sources, the following points stand out in Fidan’s ‘bilateral relations’ dossier with the US:

Türkiye’s expectations in the fight against FETÖ and PKK-YPG,

Steps that need to be taken in the defense industry, ensuring a healthy progression of the F-16 program and completion of relevant procedures in the F-35 program (which involves counting the paid 1.4 billion dollars for the F-16 purchase rather than a return to the F-35 program),

Ankara’s request to be removed from CAATSA sanctions and lifting restrictions for progress in joint defense industry projects. Sources emphasize the importance of lifting defense industry restrictions among allies, as decided at the NATO Vilnius Summit, highlighting its significance for the security of NATO’s southern borders.

Development of commercial and economic relations (within the framework of the $100 billion volume target) and the strong continuation of Türkiye-US energy cooperation. (Türkiye remains the largest LNG buyer from the US.)

The impact of Fidan’s contacts on the economy

As seen commercial, and economic issues are prominent in Fidan’s contacts as much as political, military ones.

The ongoing tension in Türkiye-US political and military relations has had a role in the country’s ongoing economic crisis. Although, before Donald Trump’s ‘I will ruin your economy’ tweet, President Erdoğan had already transferred the helm of the economy from Mehmet Şimşek to his son-in-law Berat Albayrak, initiating the era of ‘if we lower interest rates, inflation and the exchange rate will also drop.’ Subsequently, both declared and undeclared US sanctions contributed to pushing the Turkish economy to non-investable levels.

Şimşek, who left after the 2018 elections, returned with the 2023 elections with an economic recovery program that pledges to go out of economic crisis without the need for the IMF. To achieve Şimşek’s Medium-Term Program, Türkiye needs a foreign policy that protects its interests through reconciliation rather than challenging everyone around it. The alignment of the needs of foreign policy with the needs of the economy is crucial. If progress is made in political and military relations with the US in Ankara, there is an expectation that it will also support the exit from the economic crisis.

Therefore, Şimşek is naturally among those eagerly awaiting positive news from Fidan’s Washington contacts.