Erdoğan couldn’t get half of the support he targeted in Istanbul rally

Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan complained on March 24 that the participation to his “Great İstanbul Again” rally ahead of the March 31 local elections was less than the half of what he had expected. In fact, he should be grateful that hundreds and thousand of his supporters were there despite the disappointment of the ongoing economic crisis. But we understood from what he said that Erdoğan was expecting to address 1.5 million people in İstanbul.

I’m not even discussing whether the 650 thousand participants given by Erdoğan is correct; I don’t think there was, but I will go through his statement. So, Erdogan was expecting 1.5 million people to come to his election rally. Previously, even AKP members were filling the same rally area to the brim; This means that the Governorship of Istanbul was also giving him a report of 1.5 million. On Sunday, if the voters of MHP, BBP, HüdaPar and DSP, who are still in the People’s Alliance, also came, the rally would turn into a show of strength towards the elections, if it reached this mass and perhaps passed.

It did not happen.

Despite the beautiful spring weather, the crowd did not even reach half of 1.5 million.

“If anyone is confused…”

Erdoğan said, “We are used to 1.5 million people in this square. Today, it is 650 thousand people… But we are moving on”. If he had not complained about the crowd, the pro-AKP media could still broadcast that there were 1.5 million. Did Erdoğan say this because he succumbed to his anger, or was it to give a message to his voters: “Stakes are high, don’t give up, rush to the polls”? It is open to discussion… Because Erdoğan continued: “If anyone is still confused and hasn’t made up their mind, call them when you get home.” “If there is any resentment, we will resolve it. If there are question marks in their minds, we will answer them.”

Organizations of the AKP, MHP and other allies will call “confused” citizens and resolve any questions they may have. So, not running to the AKP rally is a sign of “confusion”, let us not dwell on that, too.

Well, what if confused citizens ask Erdoğan’s fielded ministers or party officials why the “good news” of a wage increase for retirees, which was secretly spread to be announced at the Ankara rally on Saturday or Istanbul on Sunday, was not given? I wonder if an answer like “promise, after the election” will eliminate the confusion? Maybe it will fix it, we will see on the evening of March 31st.

Fidan and Yerlikaya’s obligatory service

But it is worth paying attention to the fact that Erdoğan made the disappointing statement “We are used to 1.5 million”, especially a few days before the rally, after he brought the Minister of Foreign Affairs Fidan and the Minister of Internal Affairs Yerlikaya to the field in Istanbul.

Yes, the CHP Mayor of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Ekrem İmamoğlu recently announced that 17 ministers in Istanbul were conducting election campaign for his AKP rival Murat Kurum, but Fidan and Yerlikaya are the two ministers of the cabinet whose influence and appreciation levels go beyond the AKP mass and are considered successful.

Yerlikaya is responsible for the public order of the country, including preventing fraud and scrapping in the election ballot boxes. He has already vouched that the Institution will “do real municipal work”.

Fidan, on the other hand, is responsible for protecting Türkiye’s interests and reputation. Fortunately, when he attended Murat Kurum’s meeting with young people, while he was vouching for how he would successfully complete the projects he had taken on, none of the well-behaved young people asked about the Anagold gold mine disaster, where 9 workers were still buried in poisonous soil, or about Canal Istanbul, which he announced in 2019 but has not taken up now.

If İmamoğlu wins despite everything

The support given by both Fidan and Yerlikaya to the Institution seems like an obligatory AKP service to avoid Erdoğan’s thunderbolts. But I don’t think they see it as a performance to be proudly added to their reputations, nor Türkiye’s.

Meanwhile, the Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek, in his meeting with businesspeople, asked for “strong support” by mentioning that if the Institution wins, their business will be opened – with the implication of government could support İstanbul municipality only if Kurum wins.

Erdoğan is standing against İmamoğlu not only with his political allies but also with all state resources in the Istanbul elections, where he focuses on winning at all costs. Şimşek, Fidan and Yerlikaya’s fulfillment of their duty to stand by the Institution, such as the Eastern Service, is an example of this. Almost all opposition parties are in a race to rub the nose of İmamoğlu and CHP. In addition, there are teams within the CHP that prioritize factional interests and try to undermine them.

If İmamoğlu wins despite all these obstacles, Türkiye will wake up to a completely different political environment and new political balances on the morning of April 1.