Unpacking Erdoğan’s reply to Özel’s dialogue offer

As promised, Türkiye’s main opposition CHP’s Chairman Özgür Özel dialed President Tayyip Erdoğan on the first day of Ramadan Eid Holiday, April 10. The call took place around noon, and Erdoğan responded later in the afternoon, between 4:00 and 4:30 pm. The exchange of holiday greetings lasted about five minutes, during which Özel expressed the desire to keep dialogue channels open.

While much of the information presented thus far may have originated from CHP sources, the following analysis attempts to interpret key statements from the brief conversation within the context of Türkiye’s evolving political landscape post the March 31 local elections.

According to sources within the CHP, Özel conveyed to Erdoğan the importance of maintaining open dialogue channels for the benefit of Türkiye, stating, ‘The electorate entrusted significant responsibilities to both parties in the elections. It would be advantageous for Turkey to sustain dialogue.’ After extending his well wishes to Özel, given his recent surgeries, Erdoğan responded, acknowledging the value of Özel’s approach.

Certainly, resolving polarization in Türkiye requires more than a single phone call, just as spring doesn’t arrive with a solitary bloom.

Dialogue channels

Given the importance of fostering dialogue, it is essential to commend the CHP’s decision to prioritize reducing tension by keeping communication channels open, particularly following their recent success in overtaking the AKP and securing governance in several key cities.

Several factors contribute to this strategic choice:

1- While polarization has been evident in previous elections, the recent contest witnessed a more symmetrical divide. The CHP secured 37.7 percent of the vote, closely trailed by the AKP at 35.5 percent, accentuating the polarization between the two parties.

2- Despite Erdoğan’s expertise in antagonistic policies, the severity of the economic crisis hindered his ability to leverage confrontational rhetoric effectively. Consequently, narratives surrounding Gaza and the CHP-DEM collaboration failed to yield the desired outcomes.

Early elections

3- There are indications that the CHP is unwilling to fall into the trap of early elections and is reluctant to afford Erdoğan another opportunity to run. However, the lingering economic crisis poses a threat to Türkiye’s future, prompting the CHP to seek immediate solutions through dialogue, as it gears up for the 2028 elections.

4- The current period presents an opportunity for the CHP to regroup. With CHP cadres reacquainting themselves with public administration, collaboration between CHP municipalities and the government becomes imperative. Dialogue stands to benefit both parties.

5- The uncertain trajectory of Erdoğan’s potential pursuit of constitutional amendments to consolidate executive power, alongside his willingness to engage with the CHP, underscores the significance of Özel’s proposal to reopen dialogue channels. Despite the changing political climate, it is not yet clear whether Erdoğan will force a constitutional amendment to further centralize and increase executive power, relying on the unchanged number of seats in the TBMM (Turkish Grand National Assembly). Likewise, it is not clear whether Erdoğan will start talking with the CHP instead of some parties weakened by MHP and the March 31st elections. Özel’s proposal for dialogue channels also opens the doors of this closed door.

Purge within AKP

Meanwhile, while Erdoğan acknowledges the value of Özel’s call for dialogue, he is preparing for a potential purge within the AKP post-Eid celebrations. Erdoğan’s remarks during a speech at the Bursa Provincial Presidency’s Eid gathering hint at looming turbulence within the party.

Erdoğan, ending with the emphasis that “We are a party that has emerged as the first from the ballot box in all 17 of the 22 elections we have entered in 22 years,” said in his speech that he will ask for an account for falling to second place in the 18th election:

“Of course, election results are subject to a separate and comprehensive evaluation. Like every party, we are evaluating and will evaluate the elections. Without taking the easy way out, we read the messages the people gave at the ballot box in all dimensions, analyzing them down to the smallest detail. We took the first step towards this at the Central Executive Board meeting we held last week. Hopefully, we will continue our consultations by constantly expanding the circle.”

In conclusion, Özel’s initiative to initiate dialogue and set the agenda is commendable. However, the true significance and value of Erdoğan’s acknowledgment will only be realized through concrete actions.