İYİ Party under Dervişoğlu can change Turkish political balances

 

Meral Akşener followed a line similar to that followed in Western democracies, albeit with some delay. First, she declared an extraordinary congress for the İYİ (Good) Party, giving herself a margin of error regarding the defeat of the opposition block in the 2023 elections. In the 2024 -local- elections, she took the failure of her policy of entering the elections without an ally on her shoulders and ignored those who wanted her to run for the leadership again on April 27th congress- despite her earlier declaration that she would not do so. He made his farewell speech and left the Ankara Chamber of Commerce conference hall without waiting for the congress to conclude.

Three nationalists competed for the presidency. Tolga Akalın withdrew at the end of the first round when it became clear that he could not push the vote potential any further. Müsavat Dervişoğlu, one of the two veteran wolves of nationalist politics, overtook Koray Aydın’s 548 votes with 611 votes and became the leader of the İYİ Party.

Can Dervişoğlu prevent losses?

Under Dervişoğlu’s leadership, I think the İYİ Party will first have to do damage assessment and then set off; the weight it will hold in Turkey’s political spectrum will probably be determined by the work it will do under Dervişoğlu’s leadership throughout the summer, until the opening of the new Parliament in October.

The change of leadership in the İYİ Party is likely to affect political balances independently of the party’s internal processes; this effect may manifest itself in the parliamentary arithmetic, especially in the framework of the debates on constitutional amendments.

The İYİ Party currently has 38 members in the 600 seat Turkish Parliament, the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM). Among Dervişoğlu’s first problems will be to prevent losses from the TBMM Group. İstanbul MP Sibel Yanıkömeroğlu, who had previously resigned from the İYİ Party, joined the CHP before the congress. Eskisehir MP Nebi Hatipoğlu, on the other hand, had switched from the İYİ Party to the AK Party. In the political backstage there are considerations about whether there will be transitions from the İYİ Party to the AK Party, CHP, and MHP within the framework of Devlet Bahçeli’s call to “return to the nest”, or even to the DEVA Party, which is trying to increase the number of seats from 15 to 20 and form a group. In particular, it can be said that the MHP will want to increase its number of seats (50) above the number of seats of the Kurdish-problem-focused DEM Party (57) with transfers from the İYİ Party.

Possible consequences

One may also ask whether Dervişoğlu would use his leadership powers to side with the President and AK Party leader Tayyip Erdoğan (and therefore his partner in the People’s (Cumhur) Alliance, MHP leader Bahçeli) in the constitutional amendment debates, even if he could keep the parliamentary group without loss or with little loss.

Indeed, Müsavat Dervişoğlu’s reason for resigning from the MHP and becoming one of the founders of the İYİ Party was in reaction to Bahçeli’s formation of a People’s Alliance with the President and AK Party leader Tayyip Erdoğan. Given this, Dervişoğlu’s İYİ Party will not support Erdoğan’s constitutional amendment effort in the TBMM. On the other hand, it should not be forgotten that politics is ultimately a balance of loss and gain.

Let’s also consider the opposite: Can Dervişoğlu increase the İYİ Party’s number of deputies through transfers from other parties? For a party that halved its nationwide vote in the 2024 elections compared to the 2023 elections 10 months ago, it is not easy despite a change of leadership – even if everything is possible on paper. Moreover, the national vote share of the MHP, from which it emerged, has also fallen compared to 10 months ago.

Hot week in politics

In any case, it seems possible to say that the leadership change in the İYİ Party will have an impact on political balances.

The completion of the congress before Erdoğan’s meeting with CHP leader Özgür Özel this week is also important for political balances. It can even be said that both Erdoğan and Özel see the benefit of holding this meeting after the leadership change in the İYİ Party.

It can easily be said that the İYİ Party calculations are being made at the headquarters of both the AK Party, the CHP and the MHP. Dervişoğlu faces a difficult process to keep his party together and bring it together.