Erdoğan-Mitsotakis: as long as nothing goes wrong…

The most important outcome expected from the May 13 visit of Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to Ankara as the guest of President Tayyip Erdoğan will be to avoid any unpleasantness. Yes, a series of protocols and agreements are on the table to fulfill the “Athens Declaration on Friendly Relations and Good Neighborliness” signed by the two leaders  in Athens on December 7. From increasing annual trade from $6 billion to $10 billion to combating illegal migration, from disasters and health to cooperation in tourism.

But the most important thing is to avoid anything going wrong.

Because neither Erdoğan nor Mitsotakis want to deviate from the “positive agenda” they agreed on in Athens, nor are they able to ignore the existing problems and avoid raising them. For example, in an interview published in Kathimerini newspaper on May 11, two days before the visit, Erdoğan said, on the one hand, “We will do our best to ensure that peace and tranquility prevail forever on both sides of the Aegean Sea,” and on the other hand, “Raising sovereignty issues will not harm the ground for dialogue.”

So, the most important thing is to avoid any unpleasantness.

What does this “positive agenda” mean?

In a nutshell, positive agenda means “focusing on cooperation, not problems”.

For example, the first priority is to put the Cyprus issue aside. Because everyone knows that making Cyprus an item of discussion in Türkiye-Greece relations is a guarantee of not making an inch of progress.

The second is “not making controversies an agenda item”. Including unresolved issues such as the continental shelf, airspace and the disputed Aegean islands on the agenda of cooperation is a blatant plunge into a dead end.

Since the Athens agreement, there has been no crisis in areas such as military exercises and patrol flights. The Turkish and Greek navies have participated in joint NATO exercises in the Mediterranean.

On the other hand, two developments related to sovereignty rights shortly before Mitsotakis’ visit raised the risk of something going wrong.

Those seeking wrong steps

There are hawks in both capitals waiting for things going wrong. Especially in Greece, there are those who, due to domestic political rivalries, eager to turn normalization with Türkiye into an existential problem. In Türkiye, too, there is a known tendency to see normalization in foreign policy as a compromise on national interests. Of course, Greece’s number one concern is Türkiye, while Greece ranks quite low on Türkiye’s list of concerns.

Two sources of unpleasantness stand out. Türkiye’s concern that Greece’s Marine Parks project jeopardized its sovereign rights in the Aegean was made clear in the Turkish Foreign Ministry statement on April 9. Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias responded by saying that Greece would exercise its sovereignty as it wished. In his words to Kathimerini on May 11, Erdoğan stressed that the Marine Park project, presented as an environmental protection initiative, should not be turned into a “fait accompli” and a “useful cover” for Greece.

Following this, Kariye (ancient Chora church), which had been under restoration for four years to convert it from a museum to a mosque, was opened for worship as a mosque a week before Mitsotakis’ visit, Türkiye exercising its sovereign right. Opponents of Mitsotakis revolted. Mitsotakis vowed that he would raise this issue in his meeting with Erdoğan.

US and NATO factors

In this respect, the most critical part of the visit for Mitsotakis may be the Kariye questions at the joint press conference after the signing of the agreements with Erdoğan. The real risk of things going wrong is there. And of course, the questions on Palestine, Gaza and Israel; Mitsotakis would not want to say anything against Israel within the framework of European Union politics, although the streets of Athens think otherwise.

Internationally, relations with the US are important for both Greece and Türkiye. One of the important developments in the process leading to Türkiye’s approval of Sweden’s NATO membership and the F-16 deal with the US was Erdoğan’s December 7 visit to Athens, which Biden emphasized to Erdoğan in a phone call on December 14. It is noteworthy that Erdoğan said in the Kathimerini interview that “we are in favor of the United States maintaining a policy of balance in the relations between Türkiye and Greece” and emphasized NATO membership.

Impact of the economic program

Türkiye’s relations with the European Union have unfortunately been reduced to the visa problems. The Cyprus issue, which Türkiye and Greece have kept off the agenda to avoid risks of things going wrong, is poisoning Türkiye-EU relations.

These developments cannot be separated from Türkiye’s Medium-Term Program (MTP) to exit the economic crisis. At the moment, Erdoğan, with the influence of the opposition in domestic politics, does not want to be troubled by any other problem than Israel.

The economic program is now also a component of Türkiye’s foreign policy.

Coincidentally, on the same day that Mitsotakis will arrive in Ankara on May 13, Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek and Deputy President Cevdet Yılmaz will announce “public sector austerity” steps, one of the most important topics of the MTP.

In Greece, the focus will be on diplomacy, but in Türkiye, the focus will be on the economy.