The UK labour party prepares for power

The results of the local elections in May were a harbinger of the impending political defeat. The Conservative Party lost half of the council seats it was trying to retain, including in regions considered strongholds of the party. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was expected to call an election before the end of this year. The timing was crucial. With the hope of benefiting from the relative decline in inflation data, Sunak called for early elections in mid-May, and the UK entered the election period. Polls indicate that the Labour Party will end the 14-year Conservative Party rule in the July 4th elections and will gain an overwhelming majority in Parliament. In fact, it has reached a point where some Conservative MPs are openly stating that they will vote for the Labour Party.

If the Labour Party comes to power, the UK will become one of the five countries in Europe (along with Germany, Denmark, Spain, and Malta) governed by a left-wing party, even if the traditional left-right divide no longer defines the current ideological spectrum.

The upcoming period raises questions about how the UK’s relations with the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) will evolve. Given the backdrop of the rising far-right in France and Germany, considered the “engine” of the EU, and the possibility of Donald Trump being elected president for a second term in the US, Labour’s shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy may not find a conducive environment to realize his goal of “reconnecting Britain” through repairing alliance ties.

On the other hand, the Conservative Party’s recent shift to the right to consolidate its voter base and the strengthening of Nigel Farage’s far-right Reform Party (formerly UKIP) during the election process provide insights into the composition of the opposition after the elections. There is ongoing debate about how the Labour Party, which will be in a strong position against a weak opposition in Parliament, will manage its internal factions and the risk of succumbing to the intoxication of power. If the Labour Party fails to address the country’s entrenched problems, the risk of the UK surrendering to the global populist far-right wave in the long term should not be ignored.

Will Labour win? After a turbulent 14 years

Undoubtedly, the most significant development that marked the 14-year Conservative Party rule was Prime Minister David Cameron’s decision in 2016 to hold a referendum on the UK’s EU membership, a major political miscalculation. Contrary to Cameron’s expectations, 52 percent of the electorate voted to leave the EU (Brexit) in the referendum. Subsequently, Cameron resigned, and Theresa May, who succeeded him, was forced to step down after failing to get her Brexit deal approved in Parliament. Brexit, which had already led to the downfall of two prime ministers before him, resulted in a major victory for Boris Johnson, who centered his 2019 election campaign around the issue.

In reality, despite lacking the competence required for the position, Johnson was supported by the Tories because he was seen as the most suitable candidate to lead the Conservative Party to victory in the 2019 general elections by riding the Brexit wave. However, once he completed his mission, the party abandoned him. He became an increasingly burdensome political figure due to corruption allegations and the “party scandal” during the pandemic until he lost a confidence vote and resigned in 2022.

Former Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who won the party leadership race, had to resign when her economic program ended in a fiasco. She was replaced by former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who became the UK’s first prime minister of Indian origin. Despite the consecutive leadership changes, the Conservative Party could not escape its predicament. With the implementation of the Brexit agreement Johnson signed with the EU, the inconsistency between the rhetoric that led the Brits to leave the EU and the practice became increasingly apparent.

The real face of Brexit

It was eventually understood that expectations such as the UK’s ability to act more flexibly in foreign policy, gain advantages through trade agreements, and regain control of its borders thanks to Brexit were unrealistic. However, neither the ruling party nor the opposition parties dared to take a step back on this issue. The ambitious goal of “Global Britain,” set in 2021, was quietly removed from the Integrated Review Refresh in 2023.

Although the UK signed many trade agreements after Brexit, most were either with countries that had low trade volumes or aimed at maintaining the terms the UK already benefited from as an EU member, similar to the agreement with Turkey. Moreover, this agreement needed updating and expansion. A concrete step was finally taken on this issue last month, but then the election was announced.

In hindsight, Brexit seriously hampered the UK’s trade with its largest trading partner, the EU, diminishing its competitive edge. Apart from the political crisis caused by the question of whether there would be a customs border in Northern Ireland, customs regulations slowed down operations and increased costs. Many small and medium-sized enterprises were forced to exit the market.

As the era of global economic expansion ended, the series of international crises (such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine War, and the security issue in the Red Sea due to the Gaza War) did not create a favorable environment for Conservative governments.

However, Brexit has exacerbated long-standing issues like decaying infrastructure and legislative obstacles to business, making the UK the least attractive country for investment among the G7 nations over the past three years.

Instrumentalizing the issue of “migration”

Today, one in five companies in the UK complains about staff shortages. Contrary to popular belief, the job sectors of those returning to their countries after Brexit do not appeal to the British. The job vacancies, which stand at 898,000 nationwide, reach 160,000 in the health and social care sector. According to 2023 data, approximately 7.6 million patients are waiting in line to see a doctor.

Immigrants could effectively address the gap in the health sector. However, the government, with changes implemented in April, increased the minimum salary requirement for work visa applicants from £26,000 to approximately £39,000. It also blocked the possibility of health sector workers bringing their dependent family members with them.

The main reason the Sunak government has hardened its stance on immigration and insisted on the controversial Rwanda plan is the increased support for the anti-immigrant Reform Party in areas lost to the Labour Party in local elections. To overcome economic stagnation and lack of resources, the Sunak government, which has resorted to tax cuts several times, had to suspend its climate change targets as well. The goal of abandoning carbon-based fossil fuels was suspended. New permits were issued for oil and gas exploration in the North Sea.

What does the Labour Party promise?

Whichever party comes to power in the UK will face a challenging agenda. Due to limited public resources, priorities need to be correctly identified. The Labour Party initially plans to create resources by increasing VAT on private school fees and introducing changes to capital gains tax and inheritance tax regime. It aims to shorten waiting times by increasing NHS staff salaries and adding additional shifts in the evenings and weekends. One of the most interesting aspects of the campaign is the promise to facilitate investment in the UK and shorten the decision-making process through legislative changes. Of course, it is too soon to say whether these campaign promises will materialize. In any case, a large part of society supports changing the Conservative Party government, which has failed to find solutions to issues such as the high cost of living, the health system, and the housing problem. This situation inevitably raises expectations from the Labour Party.

Adopting a pragmatic approach to foreign policy, the Labour Party is in favor of establishing close relations with Europe, although it has no intention of rejoining the EU or the Customs Union. Cooperation on many issues, from border security to prevent asylum seekers from crossing the English Channel to facilitating trade and developing complementary defense partnerships within or outside NATO, depends on harmony between the UK and EU countries. Undoubtedly, as the far-right strengthens in Germany and France, the coordination among the three countries with the highest defense spending in NATO after the US will have a significant impact on European security.