Sinan Ateş murder: The catalyst for MHP-AKP tensions

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s alliance partner Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli’s late arrival to his party’s parliamentary group meeting on June 25, his first-time seated speech, and subsequent need to rest backstage briefly stirred the political scene. Reasons included high blood pressure and the hot weather, which are plausible given the extreme heat, Bahçeli’s age, and overall health. Shortly after, it was announced that Bahçeli would visit President Tayyip Erdoğan at the Presidency on June 26.

Reason for the visit and courtesy call

Let’s recall those days. There was a process that started with main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Özgür Özel calling President Erdoğan to celebrate the Eid.

Meanwhile, Özel continues to pursue the Sinan Ateş murder investigation from where the former CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu left off. During the April 23 National Day reception, which Bahçeli did not attend, TBMM Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş brought Erdoğan and Özel together at a tea service in the back room; photos that broke the ice were taken.

The next day, Bahçeli released a video walking in sportswear accompanied by the melancholic song. Following these developments, Erdoğan visited Bahçeli on April 29. Coincidentally, it was the same day the indictment for the Sinan Ateş murder was completed. This visit before Erdoğan’s already scheduled private meeting with Özel on May 2 was followed by statements declaring “the People’s Alliance stands firm.”

Yet, despite this, Bahçeli went to Beştepe again 10 days later.

The connection of this visit to the courtesy visit is clear; that is, the decision for Erdoğan to make a reciprocal visit to the CHP headquarters following Özel’s meeting with Erdoğan at the AKP headquarters on May 2.

Bahçeli’s discomfort with Sinan Ateş

It’s not just the Sinan Ateş issue that drove Bahçeli, despite his illness, to Beştepe today, but this topic seems to have become a symbol of tension in AKP-MHP relations, especially before the first hearing on July 1.

Bahçeli emphasized the importance of the July 1 case in his group speech. He stated that they would not allow MHP and Ülkü Ocakları (Grey Wolves) to be judged by “3-5 troublemakers.” It was almost a “preventive move” before the trial. While doing this, he particularly blamed the CHP leader.

Özel responded to this by saying “Get well soon” and removing the parts about MHP from his speech. In this regard, Özel’s stance is closer to Erdoğan’s “consider the matter closed” response to Bahçeli’s harsh statement “If Erdoğan wants to form an alliance with Özel, let us step aside.”

Özel shows that he will not let go of the issue but does not want to endanger the dialogue with Erdoğan.

Bahçeli, on the other hand, by going to Beştepe despite his discomfort and wanting to meet with Erdoğan before July 1, aims to emphasize the vital importance of the Sinan Ateş murder for MHP and his strong commitment to the People’s Alliance.

Pressure on Beştepe before July 1?

This meeting also takes place during a period when MHP members who replaced Fethullahists in the judiciary and police after July 15 gained power, causing discomfort in the AKP ranks, and the task of emphasizing MHP’s importance fell to the former Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu.

Bahçeli wants to deter Özel from attending the trial by stating that only MHP lawyers, not the crowd from Ülkü Ocakları, will attend the July 1 hearing. Özel’s brushing off heavy accusations with a “get well soon” message might indicate this.

However, Bahçeli sees the potential of the Sinan Ateş murder, which involved names from MHP and Ülkü Ocakları despite police reports, reaching a point of existential threat for his party.

While this situation causes tension within the People’s Alliance, it increases Erdoğan’s leverage over Bahçeli. Imagine, his strategic partner has twice turned to Beştepe over a political murder.

One should remember that Bahçeli is a master tactician, but Erdoğan is also a master strategist.

Clearly showing his counterpart’s, even if it’s an ally’s, weaknesses and vulnerabilities will naturally increase his bargaining power. Let’s wait and see.