Cyprus impasse: Bridging divides or stagnating progress?

The Cyprus negotiations, a process that has not reached a solution for many years, continues to be the scene of deep divisions and political rivalries between the two communities. The 3D (direct flights, direct trade, direct contact) demand repeatedly voiced by the President of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) Ersin Tatar to the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Representative for Cyprus Maria Angela Holguin constitutes an important turning point for the future of the negotiations. However, the fact that Greek Cypriot leader Nicos Christodoulides once again rejected this proposal, seeing it as another attempt to put the demand for sovereign equality on the table, shows that unless the current negotiation methodology and the goal of a solution change, it will not be possible to get the negotiation process out of the impasse it is in.

Common ground and sovereign equality

In his recent meetings with Mr. Holguin, President Tatar has repeatedly stated that a solution to the Cyprus issue is only possible with the confirmation of sovereign equality and equal international status. At this point, the fact that the Republic of Cyprus became a member of the European Union in 2004 without even obtaining the consent of the Turkish Cypriot founding partners in violation of the founding treaties, and its desire to preserve this status, and the fact that the world recognizes it as the sole legitimate government of the island, causes the Greek Cypriot side not to give up its understanding of federation. The Turkish side, on the other hand, demands that the Turkish Cypriots be recognized not as a “community” but as an equal state. A disagreement on this basis makes it difficult to find the common ground necessary for the start of negotiations.

Recently, the status of deserted Varosha and the related opening of Famagusta Port and Ercan Airport to international traffic have been on the agenda. In exchange for the resettlement of Varosha to Greek Cypriots, these two important transportation points could be opened for international use. Such confidence-building measures could increase trust and cooperation between both communities. However, the Greek Cypriot leadership is not receptive to such proposals, making it difficult for negotiations to move forward.

Greek Cypriot economic measures and property acquisition barriers

The Greek Cypriot side aims to deal a blow to the economy of Northern Cyprus by making it problematic for third citizens to acquire property in the TRNC. Such economic measures undermine the TRNC’s efforts for greater international recognition and economic empowerment. Overcoming economic isolation is critical for the Turkish Cypriot community to have a sustainable future.

In recent opinion polls on the Greek Cypriot side, an increasing proportion of the young population do not see a future with the Turks. On the Turkish Cypriot side, the young population is the largest group demanding a solution on the island, albeit at a decreasing rate. This has led to a decline in contacts and therefore mutual understanding between the two communities. Reducing the prejudices of the younger generations against each other and increasing their willingness to live together is essential for a peaceful settlement on the island, whatever its shape in the long term.

Direct flight, direct trade and direct contact (3D) demand

Tatar’s call for a 3D opening is related to the Turkish Cypriot community’s desire for greater international recognition and economic empowerment. Direct flights, trade and contacts aim to break the isolation of the Turkish Cypriot community and increase economic integration between both sides of the island. However, the Greek Cypriot opposition to this opening shows that obstacles to negotiations remain.

Another important point emphasized by President Tatar is the need to preserve Turkey’s guarantee status on the island. Tatar argues that in a scenario where Turkey’s guarantor status ends, the security of Turkish Cypriots would be jeopardized. This reflects deep disagreements on how the island’s security architecture should be shaped. The Greek Cypriot side wants to end Turkey’s military presence, while the Turkish side sees the continuation of the guarantee system and the right to unilateral intervention as vital for the security of Turkish Cypriots.

Holguin’s role and criticism of neutrality

President Tatar criticized Holguin’s meeting with different circles and his efforts to gauge the orientation of the public by “going door to door”. Tatar stated that Holguin should be an impartial mediator and that such methods could harm the process. Underlining that Holguin is not the Special Representative of the UN Secretary General but his Personal Representative, Tatar stated that Holguin’s task is to investigate whether there is common ground for the start of negotiations.

Tatar emphasized that the new understanding they put forward in Geneva in 2021 envisages a solution based on sovereign equality and equal international status, but the Greek Cypriot side insists on a bi-zonal bi-communal federation. This fundamental difference stands out as one of the main factors preventing the resumption of negotiations. Tatar stated that Holguin was trying to force the parties into the negotiation process, but this would be meaningless without common ground.

The expiration of Holguin’s mandate and the expected report

The mandate of Holguin, who met separately with the leaders for the last time on the island, has ended. She is expected to submit her report to the UN Secretary-General shortly, around July 10, emphasizing that the parties on the island lack the necessary grounds for the resumption of negotiations. This can be taken as an important sign that negotiations cannot start in the near future. Even if the Turkish side expects that “since there is no ground for negotiations, it is time for the TRNC to be recognized”, it is clear that such a “solution”, i.e. a two-state solution, will have to be found through negotiations and with the consent of both sides on the island.

By the way, even though Holguin was the “special representative of the secretary-general” and will present her report only to the secretary-general and not to the Security Council, on July 11th Colin Stewart, the UN Special Representative for Cyprus, will make a presentation to the Security Council and the secretary-general will present a report. It’s kind of like a chicken and egg relationship. As a result, the Holguin report will be brought to the attention of the members of the UN Security Council. Will there be any surprises from that meeting? It is possible.

TRNC’s recognition request and the 3D demand

The opposition far right wing reacts to the TRNC President’s statement “We are not saying that the TRNC should be recognized” and argues that the demand for recognition should be voiced boldly and loudly. Opponents argue that direct trade, flights and the lifting of isolation are not possible without TRNC recognition. This view believes that international recognition of the TRNC will play a key role in solving all other problems.

The main opposition Republican Turkish Party (CTP), although not officially declared, is de facto slowly moving away from a bi-zonal, bi-communal federal solution towards a confederal solution. Opinion polls suggest that CTP leader Tufan Erhürman could be the frontrunner in the 2025 presidential election and that his party could have the largest group in the TRNC Parliament with around 35 percent of the vote. This means that the CTP could be the major party in a possible coalition government.

Turkey’s attitude and the possibility of a confederal solution

Although Turkey officially insists on a two-state solution, it is not as opposed to a confederal solution as it used to be. This suggests that a new approach to the Cyprus issue may develop. Turkey’s flexible stance can be seen as an opportunity to find a more comprehensive and realistic solution on the island.

Given the current circumstances and the approaches of the parties, the Cyprus negotiations appear to be far from a solution. The Turkish side wants a solution based on sovereign equality and equal international status, while the Greek side insists on a bi-zonal bi-communal federation model. These fundamental differences make it difficult to find common ground.

Turkey’s stance is flexible towards a confederal solution, although it insists on a two-state solution. The main opposition party, the CTP’s move towards a confederal solution and its prominence in opinion polls could play an important role in the future political dynamics of the TRNC.

The status of Varosha and confidence-building measures can be important steps in restoring confidence on the island. However, the Greek Cypriot side’s efforts to hit the economy of Northern Cyprus by making it difficult for third citizens to acquire property in the TRNC hampers economic integration and cooperation.

The declining desire of the young population for mutual understanding and coexistence stands out as one of the obstacles to a peaceful settlement in the long term. While the 3D initiative supports the Turkish Cypriot community’s efforts to gain international recognition and economic empowerment, the Greek Cypriot side’s opposition to this initiative shows that obstacles to negotiations remain.