Kayseri incident and Türkiye’s Syria dilemma

It’s high time to say that the time has come and gone for opening a new chapter in Syria. Türkiye’s policy towards Syria since the outbreak of civil war in 2011 is no longer sustainable; all signs have appeared.

Otherwise, it’s unlikely that a sexual harassment incident in Kayseri would quickly turn into anti-Türkiye demonstrations in Syria’s Türkiye-controlled areas by opposition groups that have received political, financial, and military support from Türkiye for years. There is no possibility that outrage and reaction in Türkiye after the actions including tearing Turkish flags and firing at Turkish military vehicles and buildings in these demonstrations was unexpected, if not uncalculated.

From the Presidency to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, official statements emphasised ‘incitement’ and this may have a grain of truth, but the real issue is the expiration of Türkiye’s Syria policy. Both intervention in the civil war and refugee policy have reached an unsustainable point.

The events that began in Kayseri on the evening of June 30 spreading to other cities on July 1 cannot simply be attributed to ‘incitement of the opposition’ as indicated by President Tayyip Erdoğan.

‘Feed the crow, and it will pluck out your eyes’

This proverb was widely used on social media yesterday. It is attributed to the fact that for years, Turkish support – political, financial, and military – has been given to significant portions of jihadist opposition groups, and they are now being accused of turning against Türkiye. This explanation may be insufficient and superficial to describe our situation, but it’s the first thing that comes to mind.

However, judging by the importance given by Turkish security sources to the words of ‘Temporary Government Prime Minister’  Abdurrahman Mustafa, and ‘Second Corps Commander’ Fehim İsa, hailed as “a symbol of the revolution” in Ankara, it seems that Ankara prefers to suppress this rebellion by avoiding harsh reaction.

A video showing a Turkish soldier kissing the Syrian flag extended by a proud protester and patting the man’s back in an attempt to calm him down says a lot. Indeed, in the morning hours, security sources distributed images showing the Syrian National Army and Turkish soldiers standing shoulder to shoulder in a place like a gym.

Abdurrahman Mustafa, while saying they will “cut off” hands reaching for the Turkish flag, states that they condemn the actions against Syrian refugees in Türkiye and find the events in Kayseri unacceptable. Fehim İsa’s message broadcasted to his audience indirectly accuses, “We cannot rectify one mistake with another.”

Türkiye does not want its organized potential in Syria to be positioned against itself.

Hmeymim meeting through Russia

Actually, there had been an accumulating reaction among the opposition groups supported first as the Free Syrian Army and then under the name Syrian National Army by Türkiye in the border regions of Syria controlled by Türkiye before the Kayseri incident.

We can start the last wave of reactions with President Tayyip Erdoğan’s statement on June 28, saying “There is no reason not to meet with Mr. Assad,” but to find the turning point of the latest reactions, we need to go back a few days before, to June 11, when Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan had a surprise meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

After Fidan’s meeting with Putin, the Aydınlık newspaper wrote that Syrian and Turkish officials met at the Hmeymim airbase, open to use by Russia, near Latakia.

About a week later, before the relations were severed, the last Turkish ambassador to Damascus, Ömer Önhon, mentioned the Hmeymim meeting and wrote that it could be linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Special Envoy to Syria Alexander Lavrentiev’s meeting with Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on June 26.

No official source I contacted in Ankara denied this meeting.

Erdoğan, Putin, Assad

In the following days, first Assad stated that he could meet with Erdogan but Turkish troops must withdraw first.

Of course, Assad did not mention how Türkiye could alleviate concerns about the PYD/YPG, the Syrian branch of the PKK under US protection and support, without control over its own territory and borders.

During that time, CHP leader Özgür Özel jumped in and said he could go to Damascus and meet with Assad “if necessary” and coordinate it with Erdogan beforehand.

Erdoğan, who had called Assad “murderer” for years and after announcing his goal to pray at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus after his overthrow, said “there is no reason not to meet with Mr. Assad”, when asked about these statements.

Now, it is claimed that Putin may bring Erdoğan and Assad together during the Shanghai Group meetings to be held in Astana, Kazakhstan’s capital, on 3-4 July. No specific statements were made after the meeting of Putin and Erdoğan on July 3.

Why not? When Qatar’s Emir reconciled with Erdoğan with ‘coup plotter’ Sisi in November 2022, I wrote “Now it’s the turn of ‘murderer’ Assad”.

When this meeting takes place – it doesn’t necessarily have to be in Astana – we can say that Erdoğan has shelved the costly Syria policy for Türkiye.

And Kayseri: twist of history

It seems to be a twist of history and politics, the development that unpleasantly brought Türkiye’s Syria policy into question by President Tayyip Erdoğan, occurred with the arrest of a Syrian refugee who reportedly sexually harassed his uncle’s 5-year-old daughter in a bazaar toilet in Melikgazi district of Kayseri.

Mehmet Özhaseki, former AKP mayor of Kayseri, during his tenure as general deputy chairman responsible for local governments in the AKP, had said in response to criticism of Syrian refugees from the opposition, “you cannot send them back. They keep the industry alive in some cities,” before.

The problem is in politics itself

But by quoting a security source who did not mention his name, I will finish now:

• “In Türkiye, as a response to protests against Syrians organized by provocateurs there are disorders in areas controlled by Turkish forces in northern Syria. MIT and the Ministry of Internal Affairs followed and intervened in incidents both inside Türkiye and in northern Syria.
• “Every person who participated in the protests and escalated the incidents has been identified, and necessary measures continue to be taken. The Republic of Türkiye will never allow such actions against it.”

The issue lies not in whether Ankara has the capability to pursue such actions deemed against the Turkish state, but in the politics itself; it has become unsustainable.