Turkish-Syrian reproachment: This is Putin’s Business

Last week there were news reports about a possible meeting between President Tayyip Erdoğan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana, where Erdoğan was present as a dialogue partner. His meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin was of particular importance but Erdoğan met with leaders of a number of countries, from Azerbaijan to Pakistan and Mongolia, but not Assad.

However, on the flight back, Erdoğan gave significant messages about normalizing Ankara-Damascus relations. When Erdoğan told journalists that he would invite Putin and Assad to Turkey, everyone, including myself, thought the summit would be held in Ankara.

Then, a piece of news, reportedly leaked from the Syrian government, landed on our desks. It was reported that Erdoğan and Assad would meet in Baghdad under Iraq’s mediation within a few weeks.

On that same day, I was giving an interview to Israeli television channel i24 and reflected this news as if it were true. I based my assessment on this because there had been no denials from either side. Even my former colleagues at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs didn’t know what was happening.

Syrian reproachment: Whereabouts of the meeting

Two days ago, this time, Russian television channel Russia Today International took me on their program for an exclusive interview as “the most important news” with an “ex-diplomat.”

As I was preparing to reflect the latest developments, the host mentioned the Erdoğan-Assad meeting, stating that these two leaders would “meet in Moscow in September under Putin’s mediation” and asked me what outcomes I expected from the summit, the obstacles to normalization, and potential opportunities.

Now the direction had shifted to Moscow. Russian television would not use such information without hearing it clearly from the Kremlin and getting confirmation.

Then, Turkish President said on July 7 that if Assad would take a step forward, he would do the same and his invitation could be near.

Is Bagdat an option?

Within this complex traffic, if you ask me for my honest opinion, a Turkey-Syria summit in Baghdad seemed the most reasonable option. It was only natural for Iraq, which borders both countries and represents the Arab world, to undertake this mission. They might even have aimed to send a message to Turkey that “the Arab world stands behind Syria.” Moreover, this reflected the regional countries’ principal decision to keep external powers, including Russia, out of regional issues.

The other option, Assad coming to Turkey, seemed very unlikely to me from the start. It would not fit diplomatic protocols for Assad to make an official visit to a country that controls part of his territory, and it would hurt his honour. Assad’s visit could only be considered after significant progress had been made in the negotiations, perhaps at the stage of signing an agreement.
A neutral capital seems to be the most appropriate option at this stage.

Here, Moscow and Putin come to the forefront. Putin can influence Erdoğan; they have a good chemistry tested over the years, despite serious differences in interests and views. Similarly, Russia has military bases and forces in Syria. Putin’s intervention saved Assad from being toppled. The influence of Russia in regions controlled by Assad is still strong and will likely remain so in the foreseeable future.

Putin’s business

Putin and Assad do not want the artificial peace efforts of the US, UK, and EU in Syria to come to the fore. Putin seems to be striving to resolve this issue with a common understanding between Iran, Syria, Russia, and Turkey.

If you ask me, under the current conditions, Putin and Moscow are the most credible mediator and venue for the meeting.

If the direction does not change again by the end of the summer, both parties need to make good preliminary preparations until the possible Erdoğan-Assad summit in September to crown it with success.

Internal dynamics such as the public outrage caused by Syrian refugees, the security risk posed by the PYD in northern Syria, and Syrian opposition groups supported by Turkey burning Turkish flags just across the border are pushing Ankara towards urgent peace.

Similarly, Syria is after goals such as countering Israel’s expansionist threat, establishing full sovereignty over its territory, expelling foreign powers, and reconstructing the war-torn country, seeking an honourable peace with Turkey.

I wish Russia would allow Turkey to play the same mediating role in the Ukraine-Russia war, which has been dragging on in a “lose-lose” manner, as it is trying to bring us to the table with Syria.