Aging Turkish population and the need for change

Türkiye has long been considered an advantageous country for foreign direct investment due to its young population and cheap labor. However, recent studies indicate that this is no longer the case. Statements frequently voiced by government officials, such as “Our industrialists do not want the Syrians to return, the wheels will stop if they do,” and the Minister of Agriculture’s remark, “We cannot find shepherds without Afghans, livestock farming would be in trouble,” are not exaggerated.
Due to demographic changes, the importance of the aging population and retirees in Türkiye is becoming increasingly prominent in both the economic and political arenas. As of 2023, Türkiye’s population is 10.2% elderly, classifying it among “aging” countries. This demographic shift necessitates reshaping of the country’s social and economic policies. However, the mindset that “there is no saving on prestige” unfortunately continues, creating significant contradictions in many areas.

The cost of ostentation and contradictions

While superficial and symbolic austerity measures, such as canceling public employee shuttle services, are being announced, millions are being spent on toilet restorations in the Ministry of Finance. These expenditures raise serious questions about how state financial resources are used. On the one hand, ministers continue their luxurious lifestyles with private jets, while on the other hand, retirees cannot receive cost-of-living adjustments. The 2,000-lira additional increase to official inflation rates being discussed in public is far from alleviating the economic hardships of retirees.
A cap of 98,000 lira is being set for secondary salaries in the public sector. Civil servants with additional income beyond their primary salary cannot exceed 98,000 lira. This limit applies not to the total salary but to the secondary income. A public employee or a government member can receive two salaries from multiple sources, with the second salary reaching up to 98,000 lira.

Livelihood of retirees

However, retirees cannot receive even a cost-of-living adjustment or a salary adjustment reflecting the actual inflation rate, and an additional fixed increase similar to the one given to civil servants at the beginning of the year is unthinkable. This situation raises a significant question about how retirees and low-income groups will maintain their living standards.
While retirees struggle to make ends meet, high-salaried civil servants and well-connected companies continue their lavish lifestyles. The treasury may be empty, but somehow generous tax exemptions can be granted to the few large conglomerates that win all public tenders. Türkiye’s need is not sacrificing billions in tax revenue for a few businessmen but reforming the tax system to adjust tax ceilings, reduce the tax burden on wage earners, and decrease the share of indirect taxes in state revenues.

Political winds of change and polls

Recent public opinion polls indicate that winds of change are blowing in the political arena. According to Metropoll Research, the CHP maintains its position as the leading party with 32.8% of the vote, while the AKP’s support has risen to 32.4%. However, according to Panorama’s June survey, the CHP has 35% and the AKP 32.1%. This shift suggests that political balances are being reshaped. Although there is no specific study on the internal turmoil within the AKP, the frequent discussions within the ruling party about the fate of the former Motherland Party are quite interesting.
In AREA’s Political Situation Survey in Türkiye, 32.1% of respondents said they would vote for the CHP if elections were held today, while the AKP’s support dropped to 29%. The report also indicates that 53.3% of the public wants early general elections. These poll results demonstrate how the expectations of retirees and low-income groups influence the vote shares of political parties.

Calls for early elections

The March 31 elections marked a significant turning point for the AKP. The election results showed that the AKP experienced significant losses even in major cities where it had been strong. The reasons for this defeat include economic difficulties, high inflation, and the high cost of living. Particularly, economic challenges faced by retirees and low-income groups have reduced support for the AKP. These groups, frustrated by insufficient salary rises and declining living standards, have started to harbor resentment toward the government. This situation has also brought calls for early elections.
CHP leader Özgür Özel frequently brings early election demands to the forefront, and public opinion polls show that these demands have widespread support among the public. The finding that 53.3% of the public wants early general elections reflects dissatisfaction with the current government’s policies and a demand for change.
Ultimately, since parliament members acquire their retirement rights after serving for two years in the assembly, it is doubtful whether these calls for elections will lead to an election before June 2025. However, the slogan “Either Livelihood or Election” seems to be a contender for the motto of this period.

The role of retirees in politics

Türkiye, once proud of its young population, now faces a serious aging population issue, according to research. Yes, Türkiye is now a country with an aging population problem. The increasing proportion of the elderly population makes the role of retirees in politics more significant. Political parties need to take the expectations and needs of retirees more seriously. In this context, improving pension benefits, facilitating access to healthcare services, and strengthening the social security system are expected to become priorities.
Polls show how the expectations of retirees and low-income groups affect the vote shares of political parties. The CHP’s rise to the position of the leading party in the March elections for the first time in many years and maintaining that position for months, along with the AKP’s declining vote share, could indicate a shift in the voting preferences of these groups. Additionally, the increasing calls for early elections highlight the political influence that retirees and low-income groups have in shaping the political agenda.

Change is inevitable

The importance of the aging population and retirees in Türkiye must be addressed from demographic, economic, and political perspectives. Protecting and improving the living standards of retirees is not only a social necessity but also critical for ensuring political stability. In this regard, political parties need to take the expectations of retirees more seriously and develop policies accordingly. The current constitutional system’s reduction of parliament’s importance, along with the comfortable majority held by President Erdoğan and the People’s Alliance coalition, provides the luxury of ignoring early election pressures for a while. However, the increasingly unbearable living conditions, high cost of living, and the winds of change reflected in polls, coupled with calls for early elections, indicate that the time has come to focus on the real needs of the people and provide long-term solutions instead of ostentation and luxury.