Personal dangers awaiting Erdoğan: Davutoğlu shook politics

Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan faces “serious personal dangers” claimed opposition Gelecek (Future) Party leader Ahmet Davutoğlu on July 12. During an interview with journalist Murat Sabuncu for the news site T24, Davutoğlu claims that there are “those within the state who think they are stronger than the state”. He said there is a danger of “revanchist” danger against Erdoğan.

“Serious personal dangers”

Here is what Davutoğlu said about the personal threats he says Erdoğan is facing:

– “Mr. Erdoğan is a person with whom I have had a relationship in my political life and before. Our separation at the moment is not personal. I don’t think that I am in any personal dispute with him. I even think that I am trying to defend him against some dangers that also concern his person.

– “There are very serious personal dangers awaiting Erdoğan right now. If Türkiye does not democratize, if certain rules of law do not become operational in Türkiye, everyone, including Erdoğan, is in danger of a rematch. I believe the democratization of Türkiye and establishment of a legitimate legal order in Türkiye will protect Mr. Erdoğan the most.”

“Authoritarian regime” seekers

Davutoğlu, a former prime minister also said that behind this danger are those who are “inside the state” and want “Türkiye to enter an authoritarian regime”:

– “In Türkiye, unfortunately, those within the state who think they are more powerful than the state are trying to achieve something by escalating some problems and dragging the country into chaos, they are trying to maintain power. This is the risk I see in Türkiye.

– “The [Syrian] refugee issue is not something that cannot be solved. It is the wrong attitude of this government that has brought the refugee issue to this situation and, those who want the refugee issue to turn into chaos are some elements within the government.

– “Look at the identities of those who attack me but never attack the Erdoğan government. Their issue is not the refugee problem. Their issue is Türkiye’s descent into an authoritarian regime by experiencing chaos inside Türkiye.

– “These groups want to establish their authority over the government and the current government wants to use the refugee issue as a lever for that authoritarian structure. I warn everyone about this, especially Mr. Erdoğan, the government, and everyone.”

Davutoğlu: codes and timing

Davutoğlu is not just any politician, not just any opposition leader. He is a politician who served as foreign affairs advisor and then foreign minister to Erdoğan when Erdoğan was prime minister and as prime minister of Türkiye when Erdoğan was elected as President for the first time in 2014. He knows how the state apparatus works.

In his interview with Sabuncu, he used remarks like “One day the archives will be opened” implying that he knows what he is talking about.

The codes that Davutoğlu used are not the kind that would bode well in Türkiye: personal dangers, those who seek revenge, those within the state who think they are stronger than the state, and those who aspire to an authoritarian regime… Just as we are approaching the 8th anniversary of the July 15, 2016 coup attempt, his connotations are uncanny.

Several questions come to mind.

For example, after 22 years in power and the “cleansing” operation carried out at state levels after July 15, are those who “think they are stronger than the state within the state” of such quantity and quality that they pose a danger? Who are they? For example, is he referring to the followers of the US-based Islamist preacher Fethullah Gülen [FETÖ as used in daily life] who has been indicted of masterminding the July 15 coup attempt? Or the sympathizers of the nationalist Movement Party (MHP) who replaced the Gülenists in state apparatus, mainly in security and judiciary? Or someone else?

Davutoğlu, who has been publicly held responsible for Türkiye’s Syria policy when he was serving as foreign minister and prime minister in the AKP cabinets claims that these people nowadays want to create chaos on the pretext of Syrian refugees and that Erdoğan is the target.

Signaling a meeting with Erdoğan

There is one more point. Davutoğlu speaks very carefully about Erdoğan in this interview, contrary to his recent hard criticism. He even says he is trying to “defend him against some dangers that also concern his person”.

He confirms that Selim Temürci, with whom he had been expelled from the AK Party and with whom he had founded the Future Party, had (allegedly) met with Erdoğan before Eid al-Adha, adding that Temürci had informed him after the meeting. He says his answer to the question “Would you meet with Erdoğan?” was as follows: “At a time when our country is going through a severe crisis, we meet with everyone, regardless of what we went through in the past.”

When this statement is evaluated together with Erdoğan’s promise that he would “give all kinds of support” if Erdoğan’s intention was not to “stall the nation” but to make a “real constitutional reform” – but only on condition that the government system is discussed – a completely different picture emerges.

Davutoğlu may have learned of a conspiracy by “someone within the state” to overthrow Erdoğan and is sharing it with the public. It is also possible that he had already communicated this to Erdoğan through Temürci.

What is the address?

At the same time, it begs the question of whether Davutoğlu and the Future Party want to re-establish close ties with the AK Party “regardless of their past experiences” at a time when “our country is going through a severe crisis“, especially when Erdoğan is under an alleged threat. Also, at a time when Erdoğan is even seeking the support of CHP leader Özgür Özel for the Constitution…

I am writing this without forgetting Erdoğan’s “no mercy” criticism of Davutoğlu and DEVA leader Ali Babacan who used to be Erdoğan’s closest comrades when they were together.

Davutoğlu is not just any politician. His words against Erdoğan must be taken seriously. The responsibility for this lies with the Turkish intelligence MİT and the Police Directorate, in other words, MİT Director İbrahim Kalın and Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya.

As for Davutoğlu’s remarks about the regime and the constitution, it is clear that Erdoğan and the AK Party are the address of communication.

In any case, it can be seen that Davutoğlu’s statement will lead to new rows in Turkish politics.