Erdoğan’s Israel threat, Israel’s Saddam audacity

First and foremost, we must not leave unaddressed the audacity of Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz, who suggested that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan “is going down the path of Saddam Hussein,” of Irak. The political future of Erdoğan will be decided solely by the Turkish electorate through their votes. Katz, a minister under Benjamin Netanyahu, who is emboldened by the US and the UK, seems unaware that he is not only targeting the Turkish President but also reminding the world that Saddam Hussein was overthrown through the US invasion of Iraq.

Katz’s unfortunate comparison was in response to Erdoğan’s statement on July 28: “Just as we entered Karabakh and Libya, we can do the same to them. There is nothing stopping us.”

There are, however, several reasons why such an action might not be feasible; Israel is neither Libya nor Karabakh. Numerous complex factors are involved, from the US to Iran, China to the Palestinians’ own will. It is also unclear whether Erdoğan was referring to sending military support to Gaza or to Lebanon, currently under threat. The international community is trying to understand his intent while also grappling with the crisis in Lebanon.

How deeply will Israel intervene in Lebanon?

The winds of war in the Middle East, reignited by the Gaza crisis, have been further exacerbated by an attack on the village of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, predominantly inhabited by Druze. The attack was attributed to Hezbollah.

On July 27, rockets launched from Lebanese territory killed 12 people, mostly children, and injured 35, 17 of them critically, when they fell on a football field in the village.

Hezbollah, which claims responsibility for every attack on Israel, denied involvement, suggesting that the rocket was an Israeli air defense missile that accidentally fell there. According to Israel, the rockets were Iranian-made Falaq-1 missiles.

In response to Netanyahu’s statement that Hezbollah would pay a heavy price, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nasser Kanaani warned Israel against “a new adventure” in Lebanon.

Just as Hamas’ attack on October 7 provided Netanyahu with an opportunity for a massacre in Gaza, the July 27 attack might have offered an excuse for an assault on Lebanon.

While Israeli commanders present plans to “punish” Lebanon to Netanyahu, Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bouhabib’s recent statement is indeed tragic. Bouhabib said that they received “assurances from relevant countries” that Israel’s attack on their country would be “limited.” It is understood that the US and France are among these relevant countries.

The Lebanese government seems to have accepted that Israel will strike, but hopes it won’t be too severe.

Erdoğan’s Anger at Palestine

In his speech in Rize on October 28, Erdoğan’s anger, though not as intense as towards Israel and Netanyahu, was also directed at Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

The Turkish President had invited the Palestinian President to speak at the Turkish Parliament, but he refused.

We learned this from the question of an opposition MP Doğan Bekin. Erdoğan expressed his anger towards Abbas by stating, “We will handle the process accordingly from now on.”

Future Party leader Ahmet Davutoğlu suggested at the time that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh be allowed to speak in the Parliament. Haniyeh said, “With pleasure.”

However, Ankara seems to be aware that its leverage over the Gaza crisis diminishes as it primarily engages with Hamas as the main counterpart in Palestine.

Palestine in dire straits

Abbas, who refused to speak in the Turkish Parliament, was able to send his deputy to a joint meeting with other Palestinian organizations, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, held by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and sign a common reconciliation text.

This is because the Palestinian people’s urgent need is not actions that escalate tensions, but diplomatic initiatives capable of countering Israeli attacks by leveraging against the US.

Abbas likely realizes that Erdoğan’s statements, while resonating domestically by addressing the public’s sympathy for the Palestinian people and opposition to Israeli aggression, won’t deter Netanyahu. They also serve to divert attention from economic woes and domestic controversies, like the stray dog debates.

Therefore, Abbas might prioritize China’s mediation, which, like Hamas leader Haniyeh, also has an influence over Israel and the US.