Israel and Turkey: Is realism shelved?

Israel is neither Libya nor Armenia, as President Erdoğan suggests, and Turkey is not Saddam’s Iraq, despite the unfortunate comparison made by Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz.

Understanding the increasingly tense and potentially dangerous dynamics between these two countries, which were once firmly aligned in this region, requires setting aside nonsense and adopting an action-oriented realpolitik approach.

Turkey’s palestine policy

Turkey’s humanitarian, political, and military efforts towards Palestinians are appreciated on Arab streets but have not yielded concrete results so far.

When you close dialogue channels with Israel, you essentially have no other option but to shut up shop and leave.

Favoring Hamas, which is said to have been created by Mossad to divide Palestinians, over Fatah—whether justified or not—effectively hinders Turkey’s influence in the international arena, even showing that it doesn’t have as much clout in the region as it believes.

While Israel maintains close and protective strategic ties with major powers like the US and the EU, Turkey’s influence over these powers is limited due to its internal problems and international ambitions of being an autonomous power.

Although Ankara’s attempts to normalize relations with Gulf countries and Egypt are on track, Syria’s reluctance to develop relations with Ankara despite numerous gestures and statements is surprising. Israel’s relationships with Gulf countries, as evidenced by the Abraham Accords, have not been abandoned and are continuing at full speed.

The China factor in the Palestinian issue

Recently, Palestinian representatives went to China following a call from Beijing and signed a dialogue and unification agreement. This comes after Beijing mediated the Saudi-Iran rapprochement and underscores the shift in global and regional power dynamics in favor of China.

While China increases its influence in the region, it keeps its engagement with Ankara limited due to the Uyghur issue, also revealing that Turkey’s extensive diplomatic and military activities do not have as much leverage as it thinks.

Furthermore, while Israel maintains close ties with major powers like the US and the EU, Turkey’s influence over these powers is limited due to its internal issues and international aspirations of being an independent power. The fact that hostage exchange and release processes are handled by Egypt and Qatar also shows the limited regional influence of Turkey.

Much noise, no results

Turkey is the loudest country in the region, but unfortunately, this noise is not result-oriented.

Its vocal voice in the Eastern Mediterranean is not as strong as it used to be.

Turkey’s statement that it will protect Lebanon’s territorial integrity and sovereignty if Israel attacks sounds good in theory, but how will it be implemented in practice? With Israeli attacks already underway, how will Turkey respond to all the threats now?

The answers to these questions are unclear.

We must be realistic

We need to question whether Ankara’s statements towards Israel are serious warnings.

Can Turkey really militarily intervene in Israel as Erdoğan claims?

If not, but if it embarks on such a crazy path, what will happen to the US Sixth Fleet, F-35s, Israel’s nuclear warheads, the British, German, and French armed forces, Jewish capital, and intellectuals? Will they just stand by idly? What can Turkey do when all these forces move in favor of Israel?

Has Erdoğan thought this through? Rhetorical statements made without considering these sensitive and historical power balances only serve to expand the front and narrow Turkey’s maneuvering space. It further increases the fragility of the Turkish economy and raises risk premiums.

Doesn’t Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan realize how much Erdoğan’s strategic outbursts weaken his hand?

The importance of strategic communication and diplomacy

Criticizing Netanyahu’s universally condemned Gaza attacks and genocidal policies, trying to isolate him, even seeking to condemn him in the international community is one thing; however, opening a front against all Jews, including those who hate Netanyahu, and further expanding this front is an extremely wrong approach.

Has Erdoğan, who has been ruling the country for 22 years, forgotten how his words in a coffee chat in Rize resonate internationally, or is he doing this deliberately to change the troubled agenda at home? Navigating dangerous waters will not benefit anyone; on the contrary, it will only trigger more destruction and conflict.

Turkey’s interests

We need to question what benefits Turkey can gain from this process. Steps taken without a realistic, result-oriented, and strategic diplomacy cause Turkey to become isolated in the international arena. Another point we overlook is that there are still hot wars ongoing in Ukraine, Gaza, Libya, and the Caucasus. These conflicts are right next to us.

The fact that Turkey is an important regional power from China to Germany, from Russia to Saudi Arabia, will remain an empty slogan and harm power projections if it moves away from realism. Additionally, as these conflicts continue, the potential for societal division will increase. Practically, we are already seeing the first signs of this. Tensions are rising, with antisemitism and Islamophobia increasing everywhere. Anti-Turkish sentiment too.

As a result, the voices of peace are being suppressed, and far-right groups equate peace protesters with Hamas sympathizers.

In Turkey-Israel relations, I believe that Ankara must prioritize maintaining moral high ground, realism, strategic communication, and effective diplomacy.

Otherwise, it will be seen as a country that makes a lot of noise but does not achieve the desired good results in the international arena and will not be able to extinguish the fire in the Israel-Palestine conflict but rather pour gasoline on it, which is tantamount to shooting itself in the foot.