Surveys raise crucial questions: Will the AKP survive after Erdoğan?

As a matter of fact I anticipated what MetroPoll research company’s July survey results would be. In my last conversation with company’s head Özer Sencar, I got the impression that according to the June results, Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) which had lagged behind in the March 31 elections, was starting to recover, while the rise of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) was beginning to slow down. Meanwhile, other surveys indicated that the AKP was trailing the CHP by 2-3 points.

MetroPoll’s July “Turkey’s Pulse” survey showed that the gap between the AKP and the CHP, which had started to close in June, widened slightly in July.

According to MetroPoll’s findings, if elections were held last Sunday, the CHP would have received 33.8 percent of the vote, while the AKP would have received 26.1 percent.

Other surveys, while not widening the gap to over 7 points, yield similar results.

Different surveys, similar results

For example, ASAL shows this gap as close to 2 points: 33.2 percent for the CHP compared to 31.5 percent for the AKP.

Yöneylem Research indicates a 3.5-point difference: 34.5 to 31 percent in favor of the CHP.

Optimar company President Hilmi Daşdemir did not disclose percentages but mentioned that if an election were held today, the CHP could come out as the leading party with “an unprecedented” amount of votes.

MetroPoll’s distinctive finding is that it highlights the AKP’s loss more than the CHP’s rise. Their findings suggest that the AKP votes, which fell below 30 percent after March 31, are stabilizing at that level.

The primary factor here is the diminishing public hope of overcoming the economic crisis.

Erdoğan’s ally Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli dismisses CHP leader Özgür Özel’s emphasis on the economic crisis and financial hardship as “nonsense,” but the surveys disagree.

Surveys show that the economy is the public’s biggest concern. This rate ranges from 65 percent in Optimar to 85 percent in Ipsos.

The reason for the relative recovery seen in the AKP in the June results was the expectation of an increase in the minimum wage and a significant rise in pension payments for the low-income public; July was eagerly awaited.

When these expectations were unmet and the AKP upper management continued to speak of bright futures, hope turned into discontent. At least, this is what the surveys indicate.

The AKP after Erdoğan

Interestingly, although President Tayyip Erdoğan consistently ranks behind Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş in popularity ratings and sometimes falls behind Özgür Özel, he still scores significantly higher than the AKP.

There are various reasons why Erdoğan garners more votes than the AKP. These include the MHP’s endorsement of the presidential candidate, and having supporters even among opposition parties with his personal charisma.

But the surveys have started to prompt these questions:

1- If Erdoğan were to establish a new party, similar to how Turgut Özal planned a new party after the ANAP’s time was up in 1990s, could he attract more votes than the AKP?

2- Will the AKP survive after Erdoğan, meaning can it ever regain power?

Surveys do not yet include these questions, but they provoke them.

These questions, along with many others that come to our minds, must surely be on Erdoğan’s mind as well.

Parliament is adjourning. Congresses in the AKP are approaching. The cost of living is not decreasing. Surveys keep coming in.

Questions are awaiting answers.