Let’s be cautious: This is not our war

The Middle East has long been a stage for wars, assassinations, massacres, and occupations. As long as I can remember, the region has been ensnared in a spiral of violence, with no signs of improvement in the foreseeable future.

On the contrary, the question arises whether the Third World War will be ignited from this region or from the Asia-Pacific.

The intensifying conflicts and sufferings in the Red Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean, and Mesopotamia involving the Arabs and increasingly the Iranians not only shake our conscience but also jeopardize our interests. The recent massacres in Gaza, the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran, and the bombings in Beirut and Damascus cause widespread anger among us all.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to predict the actions of Netanyahu, the Israel Defense Forces, Aman, and Mossad; even the President of the United States has limited influence in restraining Israel, with Netanyahu receiving standing ovations in Congress.

Is it our war? Reality and limitations

There are those who assign Turkey a role in this matter. Some are driven by the Ottoman spirit to intervene in this region we once ruled for centuries, even hearing calls like “we can enter Jerusalem one night unexpectedly” with a sense of Saladin. Let’s not be swayed by the street or short-sighted agitators.

From a realpolitik perspective, our ability to significantly alter the historical trajectory of the region is limited.

That’s why Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who had fought many battles in the Middle Eastern deserts and knew the problems of the region and the mindset of its people well, chose to turn the face of the new republic toward the West. Moreover, if you think that the residents of the region, including Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and the Gulf countries, want Turkey to intervene in their affairs, you are mistaken.

Despite all that is happening, the Gulf countries have not canceled the Abraham Accords with Israel, and Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco maintain their relations with Israel.

Therefore, it makes little sense for us to be dreaming, even from this perspective.

Even if we create a “strategic interest” justification for advancing against Israeli aggression and defending the region not for anyone but ourselves, we should neither underestimate nor overestimate our military capabilities.

A country of 7.5 million people, Israel, with its army, intelligence, economy, and technology, is not an easy target. Since the 1950s, it has managed to keep the 475 million-strong Arab world in its palm, creating enmity and division among them.

NATO-backed Israel

Any military intervention in the region could further complicate Turkey’s international relations. Israel receives unconditional support from the United States and most European countries.

Israel’s entry into NATO is blocked only because Turkey opposes it and unanimity is required for new members, despite all other countries wanting it. Recently, Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz even called for Turkey’s expulsion from NATO, overstepping his bounds.

Do not underestimate Israel’s own military, economic, financial, and technological retaliation capabilities, apart from Western support.

If you think our NATO allies would invoke Article 5 and support Turkey against Israel in any conflict, dispel yourself of that illusion immediately. Do not doubt that their priority will be Israel, whether they like it or not.

Increasing threats and risks

In the event of an intervention that the West does not want, existing economic vulnerabilities will be further exploited to destabilize Turkey, using every instrument; the stock market, exchange rates, trade and investment flows will be disrupted, and we will be open to cyber-attacks.

Do not forget the Pastor Brunson incident and Trump’s threat to “destroy your economy.” Additionally, the PKK, KRG, YPG, the encouragement of separatist Kurds in the southeast, the resurgence of ISIS terrorism, and Western sanctions are likely to re-emerge.

Do not be surprised if Greece’s opportunistic moves in the Aegean create new risks for us. This possible maneuver could be done with support from EU partners and encouraged by the increasing presence of US air and naval bases in the country.

While our relations with the West are strained to the highest degree, Ankara will need to make intense efforts to mitigate these risks. Realistic support will not come from the Arab world, Russia, or China, each of which is dealing with its own issues. Even Azerbaijan might hesitate to jeopardize its strategic partnership with Israel.

Therefore, it is of vital importance for Turkey’s own security and stability to stay away from potential hot conflicts and interventions against Israel, avoiding adventures that go beyond its strength and interests.

Emotional reactions and rational responses

Israel’s attacks against countries and groups it claims threaten its existence have been a long-standing wound in the region.

Although Tehran is trying to restrain itself, it is not out of the question for it to be drawn into a more intense conflict with Israel through Hezbollah and the Houthis soon.

This situation, inevitably affecting Turkey as the conflict increasingly approaches our borders, threatens our national security and accumulates millions of new refugees at our doorstep.

We know that allowing emotional outbursts to determine national policies can lead to bigger problems in the long run.

Of course, Turkey cannot remain indifferent to what is happening due to its historical ties, geographical position, and cultural proximity. However, we have seen, and are seeing, that past interventions have directed millions of refugees to our country, jeopardized our country’s stability, and created a significant economic and social burden.

Arab countries have never found common ground to act together in the face of threats they have faced throughout history, and there is no such consensus now.

Future intervention by Turkey will backfire

It has been difficult to repair our relations with Gulf countries and Egypt, who took sides with Greece and Israel in the Eastern Mediterranean, and it is still not in perfect shape. Everyone is asking this question: If peace was going to be made now, why did we experience animosity with almost the entire Arab world for over a decade, except for Qatar, and what did we gain from this process?

Syria’s Assad still refuses to shake hands with President Erdoğan. Iraq continues to accuse Turkey due to its self-defense attacks on PKK bases in northern Iraq.

The 22 countries of the Arab League have never once acted together on major threat issues. The Gulf Cooperation Council is a complete cauldron of discord. Therefore, it does not take a soothsayer to say that any future intervention by Turkey in the region will backfire and have heavier consequences for us.

The most rational approach is for Turkey to maintain its current humane and diplomatic stance, avoid military rhetoric, and pursue a rational policy. Turkey should prefer to play a role in achieving peace rather than being part of these conflicts or war.

Realpolitik and national interests

Let’s not be swayed; they might say we are the only country among all the countries in the Middle East capable of giving the harshest response to Tel Aviv.

Let’s note that expectations from Turkey in this direction are increasing from the Islamic world, especially the Arab streets.

Understandably, the legacy of the Ottoman Empire influences modern Turkey’s foreign policy decisions, which is natural.

However, the dynamics of the relationship based on historical legacy and emotional reactions unfortunately do not align with today’s realpolitik on the ground.

Therefore, the most effective path to follow in the chaotic environment of the Middle East is to keep open the channels of dialogue and diplomacy with a reliable and powerful behind-the-scenes approach, even if it seems ineffective and bland.

In the medium and long term, this approach, which is more effective, will protect Turkey from major potential threats and offer a different solution option to the region’s problems by cleverly blending diplomacy, power, and a historical reconciliation initiative.

Turkey can still be a bridge

Turkey can still be a bridge to establish at least a quarter-century of peace between Israel and the regional countries without becoming a sharp side.

We are descendants of the Khazar Turks of Jewish origin, we welcomed those fleeing the medieval Inquisition and Nazi persecution. We are the first country in the Islamic world to recognize Israel. We are actually one of the countries that can establish the most robust security relationship with Israel.

Despite the trust-shaking mutual actions of recent years, I still believe that Turkish-Israeli friendship has deep roots.

Of course, establishing peace with current leaders like Netanyahu, whom most Israelis do not approve of, is not easy, but we are not in a position to import another leader from space. However, Turkey’s playing such a role requires it to establish a careful balance in both domestic and foreign policy, and to be credible and reassuring.

It is not our war

We have four options ahead of us:

(i) continuing Turkey’s current humane and diplomatic approach in the chaotic environment of the Middle East,

(ii) avoiding any military intervention rhetoric,

(iii) creating a very strong regional NATO-like security alliance to make Israel regret its actions, or

(iv) acting as a bridge between the West, China, Russia, and the Arab world.

In my opinion, the likelihood of the last two options happening today is slim.

The essence of the matter is this: We oppose it, we want to do everything we can to prevent it from spreading further, but the current tensions in the region, expected to escalate into a regional war, are really not our own war, we should stay out of it.

Turkey’s own interests should always be our top priority.

Needless to say: If tomorrow a war becomes inevitable for Turkey’s survival and vital interests, of course, we will all march alongside our armed forces and diplomats, and fight smartly if necessary.