The Azerbaijan-Türkiye-Israel axis: Implications for Iran

Discussions about Türkiye-Iran relations often begin by emphasizing that the borders between the two countries have remained unchanged since the 1639 Treaty of Zuhab. This enduring stability is symbolic of the deep historical ties, political stability, and respect for the status quo despite centuries of fluctuating relations.

Beyond the Sunni-Shia divide, these long-standing ties have been shaped by diverse and dynamic elements that occasionally spark regional competition in the shared geography.

Recent developments in the Azerbaijan-Türkiye-Israel axis, the elections that brought Mesud Pezeshkian to power in Iran, the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, Iran’s rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, the Beijing-Moscow alliance, and tensions with Israel are prompting Iran to reassess its domestic and foreign strategies.

Iran’s role in global energy and geopolitics

Iran’s geopolitical significance has become even more crucial as a strategic bridgehead for both China and Russia, who have emerged as the West’s chief adversaries. Iran plays a critical role in global energy markets due to its strategic location, vast energy reserves, and geopolitical importance.

The country is the world’s fourth-largest crude oil producer (with 3 million barrels of daily production and 160 billion barrels of oil reserves) and holds the second-largest natural gas reserves (33 trillion cubic meters). This makes Iran indispensable for global energy security and price stability.

Iran’s geopolitical position places it at the heart of global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil passes, is a key chokepoint in global oil trade. Iran’s strategic control over this narrow passage means it has a significant impact on global energy markets. Any closure or mining of the strait could cause a massive shock to global oil supply.

Anti-Western alliances

Iran’s strategic partnerships with major energy consumers like Russia and China contribute to the formation of an anti-Western bloc in global energy dynamics. These energy alliances help Iran withstand international sanctions and pave the way for alternative alliances in the energy markets.

If international sanctions are lifted, Iran could rapidly modernize its energy infrastructure, increasing its oil and natural gas production capacity and securing a much stronger position in global energy markets.

The sizeable Azeri population in Iran (estimated between 20-30 million) adds another strategic layer to these relationships, causing further concern in Tehran.

Iran and Azerbaijan

At an international conference a few years ago, I asked an Iranian Azeri panelist whether Iran might one day unite with the Republic of Azerbaijan to its north. His response was intriguing: “Iran is our country too. There are many Azeris among our state leaders. If our 10 million brothers in the Republic of Azerbaijan wish to unite, they should come and join Iran.”

Recently, I attended a reception in honor of Pezeshkian, which gave me insight into his reform agenda and the challenges ahead. Speeches at the event indicated strong public support for Pezeshkian and suggested he might launch a reformist movement. The rise of Persian nationalism after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War and Iran’s pro-Armenian stance in the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict have caused significant discontent among the Turkic population.

Pezeshkian’s election has raised hopes that the Turkic population in Iran, especially the Azerbaijani Turks, will gain more influence in the country’s political system.

Can Pezeshkian implement his reforms?

Amid severe economic and social unrest exacerbated by Western sanctions, Iran is hoping to turn a new page with Pezeshkian. Previously vetoed, he may now have the backing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the establishment to mitigate internal conflicts and ensure the Azeri population supports the regime.

Pezeshkian’s unexpected victory, marked by his promises of reform and renewed ties with the West, has sparked hopes for significant changes in Iran’s political structure. This could also herald a new era in Iran’s foreign policy. However, whether he can fulfill these expectations remains uncertain, given Iran’s complex political  landscape and the powerful conservative forces.

While Pezeshkian previously gained attention for reforms in health and education, he now faces the far more challenging task of restoring Iran’s international standing and ensuring domestic stability. However, the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh during Pezeshkian’s early hours in office has cast a shadow over his tenure. The resignation of his Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, citing a lack of reformist vision within the cabinet, is also significant.

The role of the revolutionary guards

It is still unclear how Iran’s deep state and the Revolutionary Guards will react to this new situation. If Pezeshkian can strike a smart balance with these power centers and implement overdue reforms, Iran could see major shifts in its domestic and foreign policies.

However, this depends on how bold he is, how determined he is to implement his reforms, and whether he can avoid assassination.

Ultimately, whether Pezeshkian succeeds or fails is another matter. His reformist agenda has at least sparked a glimmer of hope for addressing Iran’s long-standing social and economic problems. How bright this hope will be, whether it will fade, and how far he can advance his reforms amid the challenges will determine Iran’s future under his leadership. The impact of regional and global dynamics on this process will also be significant.

Let’s hope he does not meet the fate of his predecessor Khatami, who sparked similar excitement but was consistently blocked.

Azerbaijan-Israel cooperation

The strengthening strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and Israel is a crucial factor that is profoundly affecting regional dynamics. This alliance heightens Iran’s security concerns and challenges the region’s geopolitical balance. Azerbaijan’s close relationship with Israel, particularly in defense and intelligence, is perceived by Iran as a significant threat.

Cooperation is also expanding in energy and economic sectors. Azerbaijan is a key supplier of oil to Israel via the Ceyhan port. Iran fears this energy partnership could harm its own economic interests and enable Israel to increase economic and diplomatic pressure on Tehran.

Israel’s provision of advanced military systems and equipment to Azerbaijan, complementing Ankara’s support, played a critical role in Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2020 Karabakh War. Naturally, Iran is deeply concerned about Azerbaijan’s growing military capabilities and Israel’s strong influence in this process. The increase in Azerbaijan’s military power near Iran’s northern border has forced Tehran to rethink its security strategies in the region.

The Iran-Armenia axis

The Israel-Azerbaijan alliance is deepening not just in the military realm but also in intelligence sharing, with Mossad gaining influence both within Azerbaijan and in border areas with Iran. Iran has responded by conducting military exercises near the border to demonstrate its strength against this alliance.

Iran’s reaction to this alliance is usually expressed through diplomatic channels and regional allies. For example, it has sought to strengthen relations with Armenia and has employed various economic and diplomatic tactics to exert pressure on Azerbaijan.

U.S.-Iran Relations: Is reconciliation possible?

Forecasts about Iran have often been inaccurate. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, I’ve heard and read numerous scenarios predicting the regime’s collapse. Despite severe crises, Tehran remains standing, adapting to changing circumstances and skillfully navigating the global power balance.

China and Russia, due to Iran’s strategic position on the chessboard, stand almost unconditionally by Tehran. Iran has contentious relations with Pakistan and India, occasionally exchanging missile strikes. Thanks to China, it has normalized relations with Riyadh, stands firmly behind Assad in Syria, supports Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in the Red Sea. It also maintains contact with Shiites in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich regions.

I was surprised when an American official predicted the reestablishment of diplomatic relations between Tehran and Washington next year, highlighting unexpected possibilities in this new era. If Kamala Harris becomes U.S. President, a window of opportunity could open for Pezeshkian—if he can overcome the Israeli and U.S. Jewish community’s objections. However, a return of Trump to the presidency would pose one of many challenges for Pezeshkian.

Worst-case scenario: Will Iran disintegrate?

While some talk of reconciling with the West, others speculate that Iran’s enemies are betting on the country’s fragmentation into Balochi, Azeri, Arab, Pashtun, and Persian regions, with the Lurs and Bakhtiaris seeking autonomy as well.

Just as there have been long-standing ambitions to establish a “Greater Kurdistan” in the region between Türkiye, Iraq, Syria, and Iran, some speculate about the emergence of a “Greater Azerbaijan” following Iran’s disintegration. It’s clear that efforts have been underway for some time to lay the groundwork for this disintegration. However, aside from the strength of the Iranian state, it’s no secret that Russia and China oppose any chaos or division in Iran and support the continuation of the current regime.

A bad scenario for Türkiye

These scenarios are undoubtedly concerning for us as well. Potential changes in the Middle East, Gulf, and Caucasus regions would force Türkiye to reevaluate its foreign policy and defense strategy. We urgently need dynamic brainstorming sessions to develop realistic strategies and responses that address different possible outcomes.

Moreover, since we may not be able to thwart these conflict and division scenarios alone, a new regional initiative like the Sadabad Pact (the first of which was a strategic masterpiece signed by Türkiye, Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan in 1937 under Atatürk’s leadership) could be considered, without excluding NATO, to address current geopolitical and security challenges.