Erdoğan’s “Türkiye is the next target” statement and Iran’s missile attack

Approximately one hour after Turksih President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated during the October 1 parliamentary opening that Israel has set its sights on Anatolia, American news outlets began reporting, citing intelligence sources, that Iran would launch a missile attack on Israel “within hours.” These reports included specificts about the types of Iran’s missiles, their estimated numbers, potential targets in Israel, and which targets Israel might strike in retaliation, including Iran’s nuclear power plants.

Before delving into the background and details of Iran’s missile attack, it’s crucial to address Erdogan’s characterization of Israel as a threat to Türkiye. This issue directly concerns Türkiye and is interlinked with the broader issue.

In fact, a statement similar to the President’s declaration in the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye about Israel targeting Türkiye had been made by the Speaker of the Parliament, Numan Kurtulmus, at his press conference on September 30. From this, it is possible to infer that the Turkish state may possess information along these lines, possibly communicated to top officials by the National Intelligence Organization (MIT).

The claim of Promised Lands

Both Erdogan and Kurtulmus associate this with the “Promised Lands” mentioned in the Torah. According to this, Israel’s goal is to establish a “Greater Israel” in the region from the Nile River to the Euphrates River, which includes all of Jordan and Lebanon, the northeastern part of Egypt including Sinai, the west of Syria, and a part of Türkiye’s southern territories. At the parliament opening ceremony, Kurtulmus’s reference to Israel’s “messianic” claim in English, looking at diplomatic representatives, and Erdogan’s mention of Israel’s “religious fanaticism” also allude to the theopolitical strategy of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government based on Jewish law.

We don’t know at this stage what the military-political intelligence is about this, but a development just before the start of the land operation in Lebanon indicated that this intention exists in Israeli government circles. On September 25, The Jerusalem Post, known for its proximity to the Netanyahu government, removed an article titled “Is Lebanon part of Israel’s promised territory?” from its website due to international reactions.

The promised lands discourse in Ankara has only started to be expressed by the highest state officials in the last few days.

Türkiye cannot be intimidated by Israel

However, the way the President of Türkiye and the Speaker of the Parliament express these statements, not the statements themselves but the manner of expression, is problematic as it creates the perception that Türkiye is under threat from Israel and that Israel is a power to be feared.

Firstly, the public doubtfully find the warning that Israel would dare to attack Türkiye credible. Even if it appears in headlines attributed to the President today, it’s unlikely to be permanent. For example, doesn’t even the shortest-range missile type in Iran’s possession pose a threat to Türkiye?

Secondly, is Türkiye considering sending troops to Lebanon against Israel, for example? Fortunately, there’s no such indication. The Syrian militias under Türkiye’s influence consist of Sunni radicals. They might prefer to fight against Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards in Syria rather than “volunteering” to fight Israel to defend Shia Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Thirdly, who is Erdogan complaining to, and about whom? Is the petition to the USA?

While watching Erdogan yesterday, I remembered another October 1 speech, President Suleyman Demirel’s speech on October 1, 1998, threatening Syria with war if it continued to harbor PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. It was an effective move. Ocalan was first expelled from Syria, then captured.

Meanwhile in Iran

While these speeches were being made in Ankara, in the Parliament, and while diplomats were taking notes frantically for the report they would pass to their capitals, the final preparations for the missile attack on Israel were being completed in Tehran.

However, news of Iran’s missile attack was about to hit the internet sites, and the high probability of the attack being thwarted was not changing the decision of religious leader Ali Khamenei.

Either Israeli and US intelligence had infiltrated Iran’s capillaries to the point of instantly receiving strategic military intelligence, or Iran – just like the missile attack in April – had leaked this to the opponent to give time to take precautions and actually use it for propaganda to the Iranian people and helpless Palestinians that revenge was taken on the Zionists.

Otherwise, it would have been expected that the Iranian administration, upon hearing that the attack had been detected, would postpone the attack with the assessment that the surprise/raid element had disappeared, or even just to reverse the American-Israeli propaganda.

That’s not what happened.

Playing a losing game?

Iran launched the missile attack around the time Erdogan was hosting Finnish President Alexander Stubb at Beştepe.

As the Speaker of the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye, Numan Kurtulmus, was giving a reception for the start of the legislative year, Iranian missiles began to approach Israeli skies over Syria and were being detonated before reaching their targets.

Even before Iran fired its missiles, Israel had put its fleet of 8 refueling aircraft on alert and launched F-35s from the Nevatim base near Beersheba, which was among Iran’s targets, to meet the Iranian missiles.

In addition, the USS Arleigh Burke, Cole, and Bulkeley missile destroyers, which the US sent to the Eastern Mediterranean to protect Israel while the Palestinian massacre continued in Gaza, were also put on alert. Indeed, after the Iranian missile attack, Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said that most of the 180 missiles fired were destroyed in the air by Israeli and US forces.

While people in Tehran and Palestine were celebrating the revenge taken from Israel in the streets, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced that 90 percent of the missiles had hit their targets. As far as it was announced, a missile killed a Palestinian worker who had migrated from Gaza to Jericho in Israel and injured two civilians. Iranian sources claim that the F-35 base and the internal intelligence Shin Bet headquarters were hit.

Revenge with missiles

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the missile operation named “Real Promise-2” was “a response to Zionist Israel’s violation of Iran’s national sovereignty and at the same time to the terrorist attacks on Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and (Revolutionary Guards Commander Abbas Nilfurushan who was killed with him in the last attack).” Iranian Foreign Minister Seyid Abbas Aragchi said that the attack was “legitimate defense” under Article 51 of the UN and that their operations were “completed” if Israel did not attack again.

The Israeli spokesman, on the other hand, vows revenge. Experts talk about the possibility of Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities such as Bushehr and Natanz, as well as directly attacking Iranian government members. While the US and UK halfheartedly tell Israel not to directly attack Iran, they threaten Iran.

The new wind of war in the Middle East began to blow in Gaza and, as predicted, did not stay there. It extended to the siege of Ramallah and the occupation of Lebanon. Now there is the Israel-Iran tension that will obviously continue, which actually Israel struck Iran, its supporter, by killing Nasrallah.

What will Türkiye do?

First of all, it will remain calm.

It is the right attitude to continue defending the rights of Palestine and Palestinians in an environment where the Muslim Arab world is afraid of even Israel’s shadow and does not speak up. Likewise, it is right to defend the territorial integrity and sovereign rights of our neighbors Lebanon and Ukraine.

As the world and our region are rapidly being drawn into a ring of fire, and in an environment where missile wars are taking place in Türkiye’s northern and southern neighboring areas, the Turkish government’s primary duty is to protect Türkiye’s rights and security with its country and people. That’s why there is a need to be calm.