Türkiye’s energy strategy: Ambitious goals, but how realistic?

We are growing increasingly tired of repeating the same refrain. The world is indeed undergoing a profound transformation in its energy landscape. Countries across the globe are striving to reduce carbon emissions, driven by a shared desire to safeguard our planet and future generations.

Global attention has shifted towards lessening dependence on fossil fuels—oil, natural gas, and coal—while simultaneously promoting renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and fostering technological innovation.

Yet the reality remains stark: fossil fuels still account for 81 percent of the world’s energy supply, compared to 87 percent two decades ago.

Despite substantial global investments in renewables and technological advancements—up to 2.8 trillion US Dollars annually, with a third dedicated to green energy—the prospects for dramatically shifting away from this dependency in the short term are dim.

In an ever-growing world, where energy demand continues to rise, a balanced approach combining green energy with fossil fuels is not just ideal but necessary.

Unfortunately, alternatives remain limited. Expectations for the upcoming COP29 summit in Baku are similarly muted.

Is Türkiye’s path right?

In many parts of the world, the urgent need to reduce carbon emissions often takes a back seat to more pressing issues such as energy access and poverty alleviation.

For Türkiye, energy dependence is a critical concern. There have been positive strides toward advancing the country’s “strategic” energy sector, but fundamental questions linger: Are all stakeholders being treated equitably? Is the current model appropriate and transparent? And are global trends being properly factored into Türkiye’s planning?

Türkiye has made commendable progress in reducing its foreign energy dependence, tapping into renewable sources, transitioning to nuclear energy, expanding its energy transportation networks, exploring newly discovered oil and gas fields, and investing in energy projects abroad. Increasingly, Türkiye is seen as an indispensable player in global energy cooperation.

However, doubts persist about the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of some initiatives. Türkiye’s ability to strike a balance between energy security, economic growth, and sustainability will be crucial and demands careful scrutiny.

The role of rare earth elements

In the emerging global energy order, rare earth elements (REE), along with critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, are as vital as fossil fuels. Securing supplies of these minerals will become a central focus in the coming years.

Türkiye’s recent discovery of significant REE reserves in Beylikova, Eskişehir, has attracted worldwide attention. While these findings are yet to be independently verified, some reports suggest Türkiye now possesses the second-largest REE reserves globally, after China.

The real challenge, however, lies not in discovering these resources but in extracting and processing them. The rare earth market is highly competitive, with China maintaining dominance both in raw material extraction and in transforming these minerals into high-tech products. This monopoly is a source of global concern.

For Türkiye to establish itself as a key player in the rare earth market, it will need significant investments, technological expertise, financing, and industrial know-how. Lacking the necessary infrastructure at present, it may take years before Türkiye can fully capitalize on these resources.

Thus, overly optimistic expectations about the immediate economic impact of these discoveries should be tempered with realism.

Natural gas storage: An adequate solution?

Türkiye has invested heavily in natural gas storage projects to enhance its energy security, with the aim of reaching storage capacity that covers 25 percent of its annual consumption.
While this target is ambitious, it remains uncertain whether it will be sufficient, given the rising demand for natural gas, particularly during peak periods.

Moreover, since these infrastructure projects require long-term and substantial investment, Türkiye may remain exposed to geopolitical and economic fluctuations.

Oil from Gabar and Gas from the Black Sea

For a country that imports 98 percent of its oil and 95 percent of its natural gas, every drop of domestically sourced energy is invaluable.

The discovery of oil in Gabar and gas reserves in Thrace and the Black Sea represents crucial progress toward reducing energy imports and alleviating the current account deficit.

Türkiye aims to produce 100,000 barrels of oil per day from Gabar and anticipates substantial economic gains from Black Sea gas. While these discoveries may offer some relief in the short term, they are unlikely to transform Türkiye’s overall energy dynamics.

The country’s daily oil consumption stands at around one million barrels, meaning these discoveries, while significant, will only partially reduce its reliance on imports.

Thus, although these developments may help lower energy imports slightly, they are unlikely to address the fundamental issue of Türkiye’s energy dependence. Long-term energy security will require a more comprehensive strategy, involving international gas investments and a mix of both conventional and renewable energy sources.

Renewable energy and nuclear power

Türkiye’s commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2053 is commendable. The country’s investments in renewable energy are steps in the right direction, but scaling up these efforts will face logistical and financial challenges. The goal of adding 5,000 megawatts of renewable energy capacity annually is ambitious, but success will depend on effective planning, investment, and coordination. Türkiye’s energy mix still heavily relies on fossil fuels, making a rapid transition difficult.

Nuclear energy is also a cornerstone of Türkiye’s energy strategy. However, the high costs, safety concerns, and public opposition to nuclear power may hinder progress. Although the country’s first nuclear power plant is under construction, plans for three more are already in discussion.
Prioritizing smaller, modular reactors over large-scale “white elephant” projects may be a more prudent path toward enhancing energy security.

Türkiye’s ambitious goals, but how realistic?

Türkiye’s energy strategy is aimed at achieving energy independence, enhancing global competitiveness, reducing energy poverty, and lowering carbon emissions, all while promoting sustainability. However, these objectives cannot be pursued in isolation; they must be integrated with broader foreign and security policies that bolster Türkiye’s regional and global stature.

Realizing these goals fully and within the desired timeframe will be a complex process, fraught with technological, financial, and infrastructural challenges, often compounded by global constraints.

While notable strides have been made in sectors ranging from rare earth elements to oil and gas production, renewable energy, and nuclear power, it is still unclear whether these efforts will provide lasting solutions to Türkiye’s energy needs.

In the end, Türkiye must develop realistic, long-term, and sustainable strategies for its energy policy. Energy independence and security cannot be achieved through discoveries and new projects alone. Success will require technological advancements, international partnerships, and careful management of economic resources.

A vital component of this process will be fostering synergy between private-sector involvement and foreign and security policies to ensure that Türkiye’s energy ambitions are realized in a sustainable and strategically sound manner.