Escape from Lebanon: The fire spreads in Middle East and Black Sea

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced on the morning of October 10 that ships sent to evacuate Turkish citizens in Lebanon have departed for Mersin. The Turkish Armed Forces’ landing ships TCG Bayraktar and TCG Sancaktar, accompanied by the frigate TCG Salihresis, were sent to the port of Beirut two days ago with 300 tons of humanitarian aid. It is expected to take 12 hours for nearly two thousand Turkish citizens and foreign first-degree relatives to arrive from Lebanon. According to Foreign Ministry sources, Türkiye has 14,000 registered citizens in Lebanon, but only 2,500 people have applied for evacuation so far. Special flights are being arranged for the rest.

Escape from Lebanon accelerates

The escapes from Lebanon has begun after Israel started invading Lebanon following the elimination of Hezbollah cadres through pager and radio explosions and the killing of their leader Hassan Nasrallah. Countries from China to Australia, Greece to Canada are rapidly evacuating their citizens from Lebanon. Most evacuations are being carried out from the port of Tripoli, north of the capital Beirut and considered safer, via Greek Cypriot ports and special flights.

Those fleeing Lebanon by land are Syrians who took refuge in Lebanon due to the Syrian civil war. According to official sources, some of these are also taking refuge in the northwestern regions of Syria under Turkish control; sources say there is no risk of a new wave of migration to Türkiye yet.

The possibility of the war spreading in the Middle East is increasing following Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant’s threat to launch a “lethal” attack on Iran and the teleconference between US President Joe Biden and his team with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on October 9. Iran’s reaction to Israel’s air strike on a building in Damascus on the same day was that none of their citizens had died.

Fidan: Risk of war spreading

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert claims that Netanyahu’s aim is to drag the US into war with Iran. Israel, taking advantage of the November 5 elections in the US, has launched an attack with all its power, means, and capabilities.

There is a risk that developments may escalate to points where Türkiye cannot stay out even if it wants to. Especially considering the possibility of Iranian Revolutionary Guards reinforcing their forces in Syria with Hezbollah members withdrawing from Lebanon, and the US cooperation with PKK’s Syrian extensions, which is currently Türkiye’s number one security problem.

The risk of war spreading is increasing not only in Türkiye’s south, the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean basin, but also in the north.

Foreign Minister Fidan said yesterday in Dubrovnik, Croatia, at the Ukraine meeting where he represented President Tayyip Erdoğan, that the risks of Russia’s war in Ukraine spreading and the use of nuclear and weapons of mass destruction in this war are increasing.

Türkiye is in the time period when it is most surrounded by wars since World War II.