The Warsaw meeting, held by major European powers in the shadow of Ukraine’s use of US-provided ATACMS missiles against Russia and Russia’s nuclear threats, reflects both fears of Russia and distrust of the US, with significant implications for Turkey as well.
The foreign ministers of Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Britain met in Warsaw on November 19th, hosted by Poland’s foreign minister. This followed an EU Foreign Ministers meeting the previous day. Although Britain is no longer an EU member, Europe’s most influential members chose to include Britain in making a joint statement against Russia. The Warsaw meeting carried profound political and military symbolism.
1- The meeting coincided with the 1,000th day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
2- Poland serves as the EU’s frontline state facing both Russia and Ukraine.
3- After World War II, while NATO formed under US leadership, Warsaw housed the headquarters of the Eastern military alliance under Soviet leadership – the Warsaw Pact. The Pact effectively dissolved with German reunification in 1990 and officially ended during the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991. NATO had prevailed.
What, then, could be the purpose of these six major European nations – all NATO members except one – gathering in Warsaw on November 19th?
The answer might be lying in European powers’ search for developing a “strategic autonomy” relationship with the US and NATO and less dependent defense on the US before the new Trump era comes.
The meeting appears triggered by US President Joe Biden’s authorization of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine (aimed at limiting Trump’s room for maneuver with Russian President Vladimir Putin) and Putin’s subsequent nuclear threats.
This stems from their recognition that they cannot fully trust the US against Russia in the coming period.
The situation parallels Turkey’s development of “strategic autonomy” after 2014, when the US allied with PKK-linked groups in Syria and NATO members, particularly the US, imposed weapons sales restrictions following Turkey’s Syria operations.
In this context, strategic autonomy means fully maintaining NATO obligations while prioritizing national interests. This understanding is evident in the Warsaw joint statement.
Indeed, this sentence from the six European powers’ joint Warsaw Statement encapsulates their pursuit:
“European countries must play a still greater role in assuring our own security, acting alongside our transatlantic and global partners”
The following declarations are equally significant:
“Today, we therefore consider it imperative to
European powers seek to expand their cooperation networks and domains while allocating larger budgets to developing their own weapons and armaments. Britain’s efforts to persuade Germany regarding Eurofighter sales to Turkey can be viewed within this framework.
At the G20 Summit in Brazil, journalists asked President Tayyip Erdogan about Ukraine’s use of US-provided missiles despite Putin’s warning and Russia’s subsequent escalation of threats.
Stating “These are not positive developments,” Erdogan continued:
“This step by Russia should be carefully considered by NATO officials. Above all, Russia possesses and must possess the power and measures to protect itself.”
“As a NATO country, we too must protect ourselves and take defensive measures. Russia and Ukraine are our neighbors. We must maintain our relations with them as well. I hope we will soon secure a definitive ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia and establish the peace the world awaits.”
Speaking with careful diplomacy, Erdogan cautions NATO leadership – where Turkey is a member and decisions require unanimity – against Russian retaliation. This approach effectively aligns with the European powers’ Warsaw meeting outcomes and the concept of strategic autonomy.
There is another dimension: Beyond the Incirlik Base, Bosphorus Defense, and other strategic assets Turkey provides to NATO, there’s the Kürecik Radar.
Turkey, Romania, and Poland maintain special cooperation within the US-operated NATO Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) project. The system’s radar – one of five worldwide – is located in Kürecik, Malatya, with missiles positioned in Romania and Poland.
In any conflict directly involving NATO, this would be among the first weapon systems activated to intercept long-range missiles launched from Russia or elsewhere.
Thus, both Biden’s provocative moves regarding Ukraine (aimed at constraining Trump) and European powers’ pursuit of strategic autonomy through the Warsaw meeting directly affect Turkey.
Trump’s victory in US elections has compelled everyone – from Türkiye to major European powers, from Russia to China and Iran – to reassess their strategic positions.
The Warsaw meeting represents the latest manifestation of this trend, but certainly won’t be the last.
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