Can Russia survive under Putin?

As of 2025, Russia under President Vladimir Putin presents a complex interplay of political stability, economic challenges, and societal undercurrents. While the administration maintains strong approval ratings and a firm grip on power, economic pressures and a fragmented opposition pose potential challenges to long-term stability. The relevance of questioning Russia’s survival under Putin lies in these multifaceted dynamics, which will shape the nation’s trajectory in the years to come.

The question of Russia’s survival under President Vladimir Putin has gained renewed relevance in 2025 due to a confluence of political, economic, and social factors. As Putin’s tenure extends into its third decade, the nation faces significant challenges that test the resilience of his administration and the country’s future trajectory. An answer to the question, thus, is complex and multifaceted, involving political, economic, social, and geopolitical dimensions. Putin’s tenure, spanning over two decades, has seen the transformation of Russia’s political landscape into a centralized, authoritarian regime.

90 percent approval of Putin

In February 2024, the Russian opposition suffered a profound loss with the death of Alexei Navalny, a prominent critic of Putin, while imprisoned. Navalny’s demise has left the opposition fragmented and struggling to maintain momentum. Despite efforts by his widow, Yulia Navalnaya, to continue his anti-corruption work, the movement faces significant hurdles in unifying and mobilizing against the entrenched government. Concurrently, Putin’s approval ratings have remained robust. In December 2024, nearly 90 percent of Russians expressed approval of his leadership. This high level of support suggests a populace that, despite economic and social challenges, continues to place confidence in Putin’s governance.

The Russian economy is confronting mounting challenges exacerbated by prolonged international sanctions and internal policy decisions. In November 2024, the Duma approved a 2025 budget with a 5 percent increase in spending, primarily allocated to defense and security sectors. This prioritization reflects the government’s focus on military expenditure amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, internal reports from February 2025 highlight concerns over declining oil prices, budget constraints, and a rise in corporate debt. These economic strains raise questions about the sustainability of current fiscal policies and the potential need for economic restructuring.

Disagreement with policies

Russia’s assertive foreign policy has led to increased international isolation. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has strained relations with Western nations, resulting in sustained sanctions that impact the Russian economy. Additionally, while Russia seeks to strengthen ties with neighboring Belarus through deeper political and economic integration under the Union State framework, these efforts have progressed quietly and face their own set of challenges.

Despite high approval ratings for Putin, there is an underlying disconnect between public support and agreement with specific policies. Surveys indicate that while many Russians endorse Putin’s leadership, there is disagreement with certain initiatives, such as further military mobilization and the prioritization of foreign conflicts over domestic issues. The death of Navalny has also left a void in the opposition landscape, with efforts to unify and present a cohesive front facing significant obstacles. This fragmentation limits the potential for substantial political change in the immediate future.

Can Russia survive under Putin?

If we delve further into answers to the question of whether Russia can survive under Putin, with Putin, or even prospects of a post-Putin Russia, we might consider the following aspects:

1. The Political Foundations of Putin’s Rule

Vladimir Putin’s consolidation of power has been marked by centralization, suppression of dissent, and the cultivation of elite loyalty. These strategies have ensured his dominance but have also introduced vulnerabilities that could impact Russia’s future stability.

1.1 Centralization of Power and Constitutional Amendments

Since ascending to the presidency in 2000, Putin has systematically centralized authority, diminishing the autonomy of regional governments and legislative bodies. The 2020 constitutional amendments were pivotal, allowing him to potentially extend his rule until 2036. These changes have entrenched a personalized form of autocracy, with strategic decisions emanating from Putin and his inner circle, often bypassing traditional checks and balances.

1.2 Suppression of Political Opposition and Civil Liberties

The Russian government’s approach to dissent has been increasingly repressive. The tragic death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in 2024 exemplifies the lengths to which the regime will go to silence critics. Navalny’s demise not only removed a prominent adversary but also served as a stark warning to others. In the aftermath, the opposition has struggled to regroup, facing continuous crackdowns and a climate of fear.

Economic sustainability

1.3 Elite Loyalty and Internal Stability

Putin’s regime relies heavily on the loyalty of political elites and security apparatuses. While outwardly stable, events like the Wagner Group rebellion in 2023 have exposed potential fissures within the power structure. Such incidents suggest that while the facade of unity persists, underlying tensions could pose challenges to the regime’s cohesion.

2. Economic Sustainability Amid Sanctions and Isolation

Russia’s economy faces significant challenges, exacerbated by international sanctions, demographic shifts, and a heavy reliance on energy exports.

2.1 Impact of International Sanctions

The annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to stringent Western sanctions. These measures have restricted Russia’s access to global financial markets and advanced technologies, leading to economic contraction and a decline in living standards. While Russia has sought to pivot towards Eastern markets, particularly China, this shift has not fully compensated for the losses incurred from Western disengagement.

2.2 Demographic Challenges

Russia is grappling with a demographic decline characterized by low birth rates and high emigration, especially among the youth and skilled professionals. This trend threatens long-term economic growth and exacerbates labor shortages, posing a significant challenge to sustaining economic vitality.

Ukraine, China

3. Geopolitical Challenges and International Relations

Russia’s foreign policy under President Vladimir Putin has led to significant geopolitical challenges, including international isolation, strained alliances, and increased dependency on certain nations.

3.1 The Ukrainian Conflict and Its Repercussions

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains a central issue in Russia’s foreign policy. Despite initial expectations of a swift victory, Ukrainian resistance has prolonged the war into its third year, leading to substantial military and economic costs for Russia. The Kremlin’s objectives appear to extend beyond territorial gains; there is a strategic intent to reshape the global order and diminish Western influence. This ambition has not only isolated Russia diplomatically but has also galvanized NATO, prompting increased military readiness and expansion along Russia’s borders.

3.2 Relations with China and Dependency Risks

In response to Western sanctions, Russia has increasingly turned to China as a strategic partner. This relationship has deepened across military, economic, and technological domains. Notably, China has played a significant role in supporting Russia’s military capabilities by facilitating the smuggling of critical Western components, essential for enhancing Russian drone production. Reports indicate that approximately 80% of these components reaching Russia are sourced from China, underscoring a growing dependency that could limit Russia’s strategic autonomy in the long term.

Energy leverage

3.3 Strained Relations with Former Soviet States

Russia’s efforts to reintegrate former Soviet republics into its sphere of influence have faced setbacks. A leaked government report reveals concerns that Western pressure, through sanctions and economic measures, is hindering Moscow’s attempts to strengthen ties with these nations. Central Asian countries, in particular, are leveraging Russia’s vulnerabilities to pursue independent policies, often aligning more closely with Western standards. This shift not only challenges Russia’s regional influence but also complicates its long-term strategic objectives of establishing a cohesive Eurasian economic bloc.

3.4 Energy Leverage and European Relations

Historically, Russia has utilized its energy resources as a tool for political influence, especially over European nations dependent on Russian oil and gas. However, the protracted conflict in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions have prompted Europe to seek alternative energy sources, diminishing Russia’s leverage. The European Union is actively implementing new sanctions targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet,” which transports illicit oil, aiming to curtail a significant revenue stream for the Kremlin. This development not only impacts Russia’s economy but also signifies a strategic loss in its ability to wield energy as a geopolitical tool.

3.5 Internal Challenges and Global Perception

Russia’s assertive foreign policy has led to increased international isolation and internal challenges. The prolonged conflict in Ukraine has strained relations with Western nations, resulting in sustained sanctions that impact the Russian economy. Additionally, while Russia seeks to strengthen ties with neighboring Belarus through deeper political and economic integration under the Union State framework, these efforts have progressed quietly and face their own set of challenges.

Geopolitical challenges

I have to underline that Russia’s geopolitical challenges under Putin are multifaceted, involving strained international relations, increased dependency on strategic partners like China, and diminishing influence over former Soviet states. These factors collectively contribute to a complex and precarious foreign policy landscape that could significantly impact Russia’s long-term stability and global standing.

4. Societal Resilience and Potential for Change

Despite the government’s tight control, societal undercurrents suggest potential for change, especially in a post-Putin scenario.

4.1 Public Sentiment and Opposition Movements

The suppression of dissent has not eradicated public discontent. The death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in 2024 exemplifies the lengths to which the regime will go to silence critics. Navalny’s demise not only removed a prominent adversary but also served as a stark warning to others. In the aftermath, the opposition has struggled to regroup, facing continuous crackdowns and a climate of fear. Grassroots movements, though fragmented, continue to advocate for political reform and human rights, indicating a persistent undercurrent of opposition.

Post-Putin era

4.2 Prospects in a Post-Putin Era

The eventual transition of power poses questions about Russia’s future trajectory. Analysts propose various scenarios, ranging from the emergence of a more democratic governance structure to the possibility of increased authoritarianism under a new leader. The direction will largely depend on the interplay between entrenched power structures and societal demands for change.

Russia’s survival under Putin is maintained through a combination of political repression, economic adaptation, and strategic alliances. However, underlying challenges—including economic sanctions, demographic decline, geopolitical isolation, and societal discontent—pose significant threats to the regime’s long-term stability. The post-Putin era remains uncertain, with potential for both reform and further consolidation of authoritarianism. The trajectory will depend on how internal dynamics evolve and how effectively emerging challenges are addressed.