Ukraine Crisis: Putin’s victory, Europe’s defeat, and Türkiye’s struggle to remain relevant

Let’s summarize the current situation: On February 18, while US and Russian Foreign Ministers were discussing the Ukraine war in Saudi Arabia without Ukraine’s presence, the Ukrainian President was seeking consolation from the Turkish President in Ankara. The European Union was also absent from the table—a point we’ll address shortly. Shortly after this meeting, US President Donald Trump, responding to Ukrainian complaints about not being invited, told journalists at his Florida estate: “Well, you been there for three years. You should have ended it three years ago. You should have never started it. You could have made a deal (with Russia)”

When Trump says “You should have never started it,” he’s reiterating his claim that the Biden administration pushed Ukraine into an uncompromising position that triggered Russia’s 2022 invasion. Don’t ask, “Don’t the Russians bear any responsibility?” This is simply how Trump’s power politics operates. His statement “You should have ended it three years ago” references the two meetings between Russian and Ukrainian representatives in Istanbul in early 2022 that showed promising progress. Ankara still -unofficially- blames pressure from London on Kyiv for the failure to continue those negotiations.

Turkey maintains its relevance but

President Tayyip Erdoğan would have greatly preferred this meeting between US and Russian Foreign Ministers to take place in Ankara or Istanbul rather than Riyadh, with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan hosting US and Russian counterparts Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov instead of Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan. Nevertheless, by hosting Volodymyr Zelensky in Ankara concurrent with this meeting and signing symbolic education and media cooperation agreements, Erdoğan demonstrates he remains a relevant player. His statement during the press conference with Zelensky that Türkiye would be the “ideal host” for Russia-Ukraine talks, followed by his call to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reaffirming his readiness to assist, further underscores his determination to stay involved.

Trump, however, has taken center stage and appears unwilling to share the spotlight. His choice of Saudi Arabia as the meeting venue has garnered appreciation from across the Arab world. Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, is displeased about being marginalized in Syria through Erdoğan’s significant contributions. Putin also maintains a convenient narrative he can deploy when advantageous: “Türkiye is a NATO member, aligned with Ukraine.”

Both Trump and Putin now seem determined to exclude European powers from this matter, including EU and NATO connections.

Putin’s victory

There’s also the matter of Putin securing Trump’s endorsement of his gains in Ukraine. While European powers continue to reassure Zelensky with hollow encouragement, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has already declared, even at a NATO meeting, that Ukraine’s return to its 2014 borders and NATO membership are no longer “realistic” goals.

Hegseth’s statements indicate that Trump’s administration has effectively accepted Russia’s annexations—Crimea in 2014 and Donetsk and Luhansk in 2022—and is treating Ukraine’s territorial integrity as a bargaining chip without regard for Zelensky’s position.

Next in line appears to be a US proposal to protect Ukraine against Russia in exchange for access to valuable mineral deposits—a arrangement reminiscent of mafia-style protection rackets.

US Vice President JD Vance’s questioning of the US-European partnership at the Munich Security Conference brought the Conference Chairman, veteran German diplomat Christoph Heusgen—known for his composure—to literal tears. While the Biden administration claimed it had crippled half the Russian army by transferring just 3% of its military budget to Ukraine, Trump seems to have drawn more effective lessons from Russia’s historical defeats of Napoleon in the 1800s and Hitler in the 1900s.

Europe’s Defeat

Europe has suffered losses on two critical fronts:

First is the erosion of political prestige. Russia’s attack on Ukraine confirmed that the European Union lacks political power without US military backing, as historical fear of Russia resurged across the continent, especially in northern and eastern Europe. This fear drove Sweden and Finland to accept Türkiye’s legal and constitutional conditions regarding the PKK in order to join NATO, an alliance they had long avoided. Poland increased military spending to 5 percent, well above NATO’s 2 percent standard. Germany announced an unprecedented €100 billion armament budget—the largest military investment since World War II.

Second are the economic consequences. Under Biden’s pressure, EU countries imposed economic sanctions against Russia. When the two Nord Stream pipelines carrying Russian natural gas beneath the Baltic Sea ceased operations, energy shortages emerged throughout central and eastern European countries, particularly Germany. These nations began importing significantly more expensive liquefied natural gas from the US instead of Russian supplies. Trade sanctions forced European brands to shutter their Russian operations, contributing to Germany’s economic stagnation over recent years. Now Trump hints at potentially granting sanctions flexibility to the EU—provided they remain uninvolved in Ukraine.

Trump-Putin, Trump-Erdoğan Dynamics

Ukraine wasn’t the only topic on the agenda in Riyadh.

The discussions included logistics for a potential Trump-Putin meeting—where, when, and how it might occur. Lavrov traveled to Riyadh with Putin’s closest advisor Yuri Ushakov, while Rubio was accompanied by Trump’s National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. Their first agreement was to revitalize US-Russia diplomatic relations, which had deteriorated over Ukraine.

The US delegation included Trump’s Special Representative for the Middle East and billionaire golfing companion Steve Witkoff, alongside Saudi Arabia’s National Security Advisor Musaid al-Aiban—who has maintained contact with Syria’s Ahmed Shara and lobbied for lifting sanctions on Syria. This composition suggests broader Middle East issues, from Syria to the Israel-Palestine conflict, were also discussed.

Türkiye remains engaged but is struggling to maintain its relevance. The upcoming Trump-Putin meeting will undoubtedly address numerous issues beyond Ukraine—Syria, Iran, Israel-Palestine, China, Japan, North Korea, and even Trump’s Greenland initiative and European security (details I’ll address in a future article).

Current developments suggest the Putin-Trump meeting may precede any Erdoğan-Trump meeting, which has yet to be publicly announced.