The Alaska Summit, winners, losers, and the end of the Yalta system

The three-hour meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 at the Elmendorf–Richardson Air Force base in Anchorage, Alaska, bore some resemblance to the Yalta Conference of 1945, which marked the end of World War II.
Eighty years ago, the United States, the Soviet Union (USSR), and the United Kingdom agreed to cooperate against the spread of German Nazism in Europe and Japanese militarism in the Pacific, effectively shaping the framework of post-war international relations. The foundations of many principles, from the establishment and functioning of the United Nations to the rules of modern diplomacy, were laid in Yalta, a city on the Crimean Peninsula, then part of the Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine, extending into the Black Sea.
Eighty years later, the leaders of the United States and the Russian Federation, formed after the dissolution of the USSR, met in Alaska—where the U.S. and Russia are separated only by the Bering Strait, connecting the Pacific Ocean to the Arctic—to discuss the conditions for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Yalta Ended in Alaska

It can be said that the Yalta system, which has become unsustainable, ended in Alaska.
The Trump-Putin summit could also be considered a global power-sharing meeting, beyond the framework of Russia’s war in Ukraine..
It’s reasonable to assume that behind the U.S. stands NATO and, questionably, the European Union that Trump has turned into a punching bag, while behind Russia are primarily China and the enigmatic nuclear power North Korea. Iran, preoccupied with its concerns over Israel, seems to be out of the picture as of now.
It was scandalous but indicative of the power-sharing nature of the Alaska meeting that Ukraine wasn’t invited to the Alaska meeting, where the amount of territory it might cede to Russia was negotiated.
The United Kingdom, meanwhile, has been relegated to the status of “informed first.” Trump reportedly told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after the Alaska meeting, “Come to Washington on Monday, I’ll explain, and maybe we’ll include you in the next meeting.” Before this, Zelenskyy joined a teleconference with European leaders who advised Trump to “Secure guarantees from Putin.” When Putin suggested Moscow for the second meeting, Trump reportedly responded, “Why not?”
Perhaps they’ll hold it in Yalta, now annexed by Russia, to close the curtain.

Biggest Winners, Biggest Losers

Ukraine, losing land, wealth, and people, is undoubtedly the biggest loser. Looking at the others, the picture is as follows:
1. Putin is a clear winner. He demonstrated that the sanctions and international bans imposed by the previous U.S. administration were nullified by the current U.S. president rolling out the red carpet. Russia can recover its economic losses through its natural resources and cooperation with China. By violating the Yalta legal framework and launching an invasion, Russia emerges with control over roughly 20 percent of Ukraine’s land, resources, and workforce. The only question is what it will keep or relinquish in negotiations.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s arrival in Alaska wearing a T-shirt with “CCCP” (Russian for USSR) was a bold statement.

2. The European Union is the biggest loser, next to Ukraine. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reignited fears of Russia in Eastern and Northern Europe. Consider this: Sweden and Finland changed their laws to gain Türkiye’s approval for NATO membership. Hungary, an EU member, declared upfront that it would not jeopardize its relations with Russia. With Trump’s “Put your hands in your pockets” pressure on NATO, some EU NATO members have shifted budgets from aiding Ukraine to arming themselves. The EU’s division over Israel’s inhuman atrocities in Gaza has also pushed the Ukraine issue to the back burner.

Trump Won’t Share Success with Anyone

3. Trump turns the U.S.’s political loss into his gain. He claims the mistake was not the U.S.’s but Joe Biden’s for provoking Ukraine into war with Russia. If peace is achieved and U.S. companies fill the massive Russian market left vacant by EU firms due to sanctions, Trump calculates this will pay off in the November 2026 midterm elections. Like Yalta 80 years ago, Trump believes a new global system cannot be sustained without shaking hands with Russia. He sees that further pressure on Russia will only push Moscow closer to Beijing.
4. Venue options for the meeting included Istanbul, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Geneva. Since the war began in 2022, Türkiye, despite being a NATO member, has maintained balanced relations with its two Black Sea neighbors, Russia and Ukraine, and served as a communication channel. Even U.S.-Russia technical talks were held in Istanbul. Both Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan had reasons to be hopeful. Perhaps they were prematurely optimistic and reluctant to accept that Trump has no intention of sharing the success of such a move with anyone.

The New Order and the Turkish Position

It’s not yet clear what will replace the Yalta Order, which we can assume ended with Alaska.
Regional powers, including Türkiye, naturally want to enhance their importance and position in this new order. Türkiye’s initiative to disarm the PKK and integrate it into politics through a political solution to its chronic Kurdish problem is part of the emerging changes in regional policies.

Israel’s US-backed brutal expansionism into Palestine, Syria, and Lebanon is part of it, too.
We are in a volatile, evolving process on both global and regional levels, and it’s just beginning to take shape. Predicting its final form or timeline is challenging.
However, it’s clear that the starting point of this new order, like Yalta, is power politics. As power politics dominate, rights and freedoms recede—just as increased spending on armaments reduces funds for social security.
The fact that Trump and Putin didn’t part ways in conflict at the Alaska meeting was significant; they didn’t part on bad terms. The second meeting is reportedly set for Russia. Given Erdoğan’s efforts, he will likely continue pushing for a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting in Türkiye.
But Trump has no interest in sharing his success with anyone, and if he does, it will come at a steep price.