The Postponement of Absolute Nullity and an Applause Barometer of CHP

 

The Ankara 42nd Civil Court of First Instance postponed the hearing in the case seeking to declare the 2023 Congress, where the Turkish main opposition CHP delegates elected Özgür Özel instead of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, “absolutely null and void” until October 24. It is reported that the judge wants to see the results of the CHP’s September 21 Extraordinary Congress decision. The CHP wanted the case dismissed, but this postponement can be considered the lesser of two evils for the CHP. It was claimed that if Kılıçdaroğlu had been reinstated today, the plan would have included an attempt to cancel the September 21 congress.

This outcome may also be due to the campaign pursued by CHP leader Özel and his administration.

The latest example of this was his message at the “Politics, Not Tutelage” rally he held in Ankara on September 14, one day before the court’s decision, reiterating that he would not back down and would not recognize a trustee to be appointed by a court to run CHP. Following this postponement decision, President Tayyip Erdoğan and the AK Party may now abandon their expectation that the CHP will wear down and split, based on the assumption that Kılıçdaroğlu would return.

The rally was also an indication that the opposition crowd did not heed the moves against the CHP coming from the judiciary, the government, and the party’s internal opposition.

I will give you an “applause barometer” from the rally.

Before he took the special podium and began his speech, those participating in the rally were introduced.

The applause from the crowd that completely filled Tandoğan Square (*) and spilled over onto the boulevards coming from three directions showed the crowd’s acceptance and embrace of that name.

Who are the first three?

First, I must mention the wave of applause received by Mahmut Tanal, an MP from the Southeast province of Şanlıurfa who came out to greet the crowd before he was even introduced or his name was read out. There were not only CHP members in the square, nor only smaller parties left of CHP; there were people from many different walks of life. My observation is this: Mahmut Tanal is seen as a folk hero by the opponents of the AK Party government.

Among the names introduced, the Mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavaş, who delivered an effective speech, should be mentioned first. You might say he is the mayor of the city, but I am talking about an applause duration that went beyond that.

The third name in the first row is Hikmet Çetin, who received applause and cheers close to Yavaş. Tandoğan, Özel’s 54th rally since İstanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s arrest on March 19, is, in his own words, an “action, not only rally” against President Tayyip Erdoğan. Çetin, 88 years old, was present at almost all of them. In the eyes of the CHP crowd, he is almost a secular saint. Özel and his administration also treat him with great respect and care.

Surprising names in the second batch

Istanbul Provincial Chairman Özgür Çelik is at the top of the second batch. There is a reason why he received so much applause and cheering in Ankara. The opposition crowds are thirsty for active struggle against Erdoğan and the AK Party government. Whether they are outspoken like Tanal and Çelik or quiet and deep like Çetin and Yavaş. When Özel cleared away the dead weight that had been weighing down the CHP for decades and shifted the democratic struggle away from the General Headquarters-Grand National Assembly axis, the crowd’s response was not just filling the rally squares; new actors also came to the fore.

The applause that erupted when Muharrem İnce’s name was read and he took the stage was sincere. He was CHP’s presidential candidate in 2018 elections but later on was at odds with Kılıçdaroğlu and split to set up another party which failed in the last elections. I was in the crowd: the strong applause given by the people’s nods signified their approval of his “return home.” The CHP crowd, as well as the opposition crowd in general, had forgiven Muharrem İnce, considering his departure from the party “null and void,” as if it had never happened.

The third surprise was the Southern city Adana Metropolitan Mayor Zeydan Karalar, who received loud applause from the crowd when his name was called, even though he was in Silivri prison in İstanbul after being arrested in the wake of İmamoğlu files. It is clear that Karalar has a positive impact on the opposition crowd that extends beyond Adana.

CHP and Turan Güneş formula

While passing through the second of three security checks at the rally venue, we ran into Sabri Ergül, one of the old guards of the CHP. Despite being 79 years old, he was walking to the square. He was one of the youth wing leaders when the CHP was the CHP in the 1970s, and later became an MP for Izmir. While chatting in the podium area, he told me a story. I am quoting him:

• “Süleyman Genç (also one of the youth wing leaders at the time) and I were opposing (then CHP leader and Prime Minister) Bülent Ecevit from the left wing. It was making noise.

• “One day, Turan Güneş (Foreign Minister during the 1974 Cyprus Operation) wanted to talk to us. ‘Ecevit is boosting the party. For the first time since its founding, the party is growing. It has a following among the people. You don’t stand in the way of a leader who is growing the party.

• “Özel also has public support. Özel is also growing the party. For the first time since Ecevit, he has grown the party so much that it is back in first place. Look, if it weren’t for that 38 percent (referring to the 2024 local elections), he wouldn’t have been able to fill the squares like this or change the constitution. You can’t stand in the way of someone who is growing the party.”

Absolute Nullity is of no use to anyone

I think, especially after the fiasco of the Istanbul Provincial Chairmanship, AK Party circles have also realized that Özgür Özel’s removal from office with a “definite nullity” decision and Kılıçdaroğlu’s appointment in his place will not cause the damage they hoped for to the CHP, but could backfire.

We can gauge this sentiment from Hürriyet newspaper’s Editor-in-Chief and a staunch supporter of Erdoğan on September 15, titled “Absolute nullifiers have zero chance of winning,” but it has been possible to read between the lines of Abdülkadir Selvi in Hürriyet and Okan Müderrisoğlu in Sabah for some time now.

An possible absolute nullification ruling by the court, now postponed to October 24, does not seem to benefit or help either Kılıçdaroğlu or Erdoğan.

At this stage, the cost of toppling Özgür Özel from CHP chair by a court ruling could lead to heavy consequences.

This is now a test for democracy in Türkiye.

(*) The police estimates before the rally was that a few tens of thousand people could participate the rally. The Tandoğan Square is approximately 490,000 square meters. Rally programs estimate a capacity of 4 to 6 people per square meter. If an average of five people per square meter is calculated, the total is 188,000. If we include those unable to enter the square on both the Beşevler and Hippodrome sides of Gazi Mustafa Kemal Boulevard and Dögol Boulevard, we can estimate a crowd of no less than 200,000.