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[caption id="attachment_43855" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Azerbaijan President Aliyev (L), US President Trump, and Armenia Prime Minister Pashinyan at the August 8 signing ceremony. (Photo: X/IlhamAliyev)[/caption] The agreement reached on August 8 in Washington by Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan, facilitated by US President Donald Trump, has the potential to reshape not only the Caucasus but also the political and economic balances in Central Asia and the Middle East. Notably, the mutual pledge of non-aggression and the simultaneous withdrawal from the Minsk Group, which had stalled negotiations for years, are significant political steps. Imagine two nations with a history of enmity are preparing to jointly nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. The project to connect Azerbaijan’s mainland to Nakhchivan, bordering Türkiye through road and rail, under US guarantees—deliberately avoiding the term "Zangezur Corridor"—aims to link Central Asia and the Caucasus to the Middle East and Europe via Türkiye. Dubbed the Trump International Peace and Prosperity Route (TRIPP), this connection could be the most significant geopolitical milestone since the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which opened Azerbaijan’s oil to global markets through Georgia and Türkiye in 1999. The Unseen Dimension of the Deal The agreement has an underreported Middle East dimension. Just a day before, Aliyev met with Steve Witkoff, the US President’s Special Envoy for the Middle East. Despite Türkiye’s objections, due to Israel’s atrocities in Gaza, Azerbaijan maintains close ties with Israel. The Turkish opposition questions why President Tayyip Erdoğan hasn’t shut down the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which supplies nearly half of Israel’s oil imports. Right before this meeting, Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR signed an investment memorandum with Exxon. The following day, the US lifted sanctions on Azerbaijan. The deal as a whole is not likely to make Moscow and Tehran happy; it effectively opens Armenia’s border with Iran to US oversight, suggesting Armenia may soon see rapid development through American investments. So, will Türkiye open its border gate with Armenia as a result? The Armenia Border Gate Türkiye was among the first to recognize Armenia’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 and even facilitated its membership in the newly formed Black Sea Economic Cooperation alongside Azerbaijan. However, after Armenia’s Russian-backed attack on Azerbaijan and the occupation of Karabakh in 1993, particularly following the Kelbajar massacre, Türkiye closed the border and never established diplomatic relations. The Akyaka border gate in Kars (Ahuryan on the Armenian side) has remained closed since then. According to information provided to YetkinReport by official sources, the August 8 Azerbaijan-Armenia agreement will not lead to the border gate’s opening—at least not under the current stance. The reason is that, despite Trump announcing it as a “peace agreement,” it is not a final peace deal. Indeed, President Aliyev stated after the agreement that they had only “initialed” it and were ready to sign a peace deal at any moment if Armenia amends its constitution. Ankara and Baku’s Shared Condition Armenia’s constitution still references the historical notion of a “Greater Armenia,” which includes parts of Azerbaijan and Türkiye. Both Ankara and Baku rightfully demand that Yerevan first recognize the internationally accepted borders recognized by the UN. This was why the 2009 Türkiye-Armenia agreement fell apart. Türkiye’s condition is clear: The Akyaka border gate will open only after Azerbaijan and Armenia sign a final peace agreement. It’s worth noting that if Aliyev hadn’t resolved the 30-year Karabakh issue in the fall of 2020 with political and military support from Türkiye, ending the occupation, this discussion wouldn’t be happening today. Pashinyan, a politician advocating that Armenia cannot progress with this historical complex, believes they must focus on developing the “Real Armenia” within its current borders. The issue of peace with Azerbaijan and the border gate was also discussed during Pashinyan’s meeting with Erdoğan in Istanbul on June 20. Türkiye will open the border gate once Armenia recognizes its (and also Azerbaijan’s) internationally accepted borders.

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