World’s eyes are on Russia-NATO, Turkey busy with Qatar

Suppose US President Joe Biden had invited President Tayyip Erdoğan to the Democracy Summit to be convened by video conference on December 9-10. Can you picture the propaganda that the Presidency of Turkey would carry out? I don’t grant this summit of that much importance. I regard it as a façade of global hypocrisy. But if Erdoğan had spoken to Biden, I can anticipate headlines such as “the democracy messages that President Erdoğan gave to the world leaders,” or “They had to accept Erdoğan.” But we are talking about Qatar instead.

The President of the United States had a two-hour conversation on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 7 at Biden’s request. The White House announced that the main focus of the meeting was Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s borders. If Russia attempted a military action against Ukraine, the United States and its allies would respond with economic sanctions and other tools. When the USA and its allies are mentioned, Turkey comes to mind, especially when it comes to our Black Sea neighbours Ukraine and Russia.

We are not talking about the winds of war blowing in our neighbourhood; we are talking about Qatar.

Do we not want Qatari money?

Erdogan met with Emir of Qatar Tamim al-Thani on December 7. The Ministers of Foreign Affairs press conference the day before was a bitter experience for the Turkish delegation. The Qatari Minister said they “are looking forward to the opportunities that merge out of (economic) challenges” of Turkey. A journalist asked if Turkey holds the meetings to ask for financial support. It did not matter if that was the truth or not; that was the interpretation.

Nowadays, Erdogan’s foreign relations are interpreted as Turkey’s search for resources, just like Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Mohammed bin Zayed’s visit on November 24. It was the first visit in 10 years as he was considered an enemy until recently.

A total of 15 agreements were signed with Qatar. Erdoğan had visited the Turkish military base established in 2017 in Qatar when the Gulf state was under threat of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. The Emir of Qatar was one of the leaders who supported Erdogan during the 2016 coup attempt. Later, in another exchange rate crisis, Qatar Central Bank opened a swap account with the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), which relieved Erdoğan a little.

For this reason, the agreement between the central banks was one of the two hot topics in the meeting.

Aselsan, Roketsan, military facilities

The other hot topic was whether Qatar’s government would buy the shares of Turkey’s military industry facilities such as Aselsan and Roketsan. The issue became a topic of discussion after UAE authorities were given a briefing in Aselsan during the crown prince’s visit. The briefing’s aim could be about providing information about the products to sell. The opposition IYI Party deputy Aytun Çıray brought the issue to the political agenda, asking if Turkey’s defence industry giant was the one to be sold.

After all, the military electronics specialist Aselsan is one of Turkey’s top-secret technology companies like Roketsan. It was the only company from Turkey among the top 100 companies exporting weapons in the world in 2020. Opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu also mentioned the rumours that Qatar will buy shares of Aselsan and Roketsan in his speech in the parliament during the budget talks on December 6 and warned the government. (I think not only Aselsan, Roketsan, Havelsan, but also should private companies producing top-secret technology such as Baykar be protected under state support.)

Finally, on December 7, the expected statement came stating that the Turkish Armed Forces Foundation owned Aselsan and the sale of shares to foreigners was out of the question.

As you can see, the issue of discussion is not solely Qatar; it is the recovery of the economy from its current crisis.

The risk of Russian attack on Ukraine

We are talking about the possibility of war, right next to us, in our neighbourhood. Russia reacted to Turkey’s siding with Ukraine in line with NATO’s decisions. Putin and Erdogan also discussed this issue in their phone call on December 3. According to the Kremlin’s statement, in the meeting held at Erdogan’s request, Putin conveyed that he was uncomfortable with the use of Bayraktar TB-2 Armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, which Turkey sold to Ukraine, against pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country.

I don’t think Putin would care too much about Biden’s threats of sanctions. Do you think NATO allies like Germany or Turkey, which are dependent on Russian natural gas for electricity production, would want to enter into military conflict with Russia? Moreover, the Chinese leader, Xi Kingpin, is behind Putin.

If this war continues in cyberspace, it is something different. Biden and Putin have already discussed that issue. But it is within the possibility that Russia would test the limits that the US can go in the military field.

In that case, what Turkey will do may now turn into not only a national security problem, but also a problem of economic survival. They are not mutually exclusive at the moment, are they?

Anyway, never mind. Let’s talk about UAE, let’s talk about Qatar, let’s talk about Saudi Arabia.