USA’s F-16 approval made easier in Ukranian backdrop

The facilitating policy adopted by Turkey in the Ukraine Crisis may also make the approval of the F-16 modernization demanded from the USA easier. Ankara’s diplomacy to ensure a ceasefire in Ukraine and start the political solution process as soon as possible soon begin to yield results, which may result in mending ties the West in the F-16 issue and other fields.

Another example of Turkey’s position is that after Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu met with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Moscow, and a day later with his Ukrainian counterpart Dimitro Kuleba in Lviv on March 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Tayyip Erdoğan held a phone conversation. In the meeting, it was reported that the parties discussed the items of the draft peace plan that Russia reportedly proposed to Ukraine, and Turkey’s facilitating role began to turn into a de facto mediator. In the event of an agreement with Russia, it is known that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would like to see Turkey and, according to diplomatic sources Germany, as well as permanent members of the UN Security Council other than Russia, among his guarantors.
About the relevance of these developments to the F-16 modernization that Turkey requested from the USA, and the USA’s excluding Turkey from the F-35 program due to the S-400 missiles it bought from Russia:

F-16 highlight of the US Ambassador

A few hours before Putin-Erdogan call, US Ambassador to Ankara, Jeff Flake hosted a reception at his residence. The event marked the 70th anniversary of Turkey’s NATO membership. Actually, it wasn’t precisely the anniversary, the anniversary was February 18, but if there should be a positive reason for such an event, that was it.

Ambassadors and military attachés of all NATO member countries in Ankara were invited to the lunch, which was also attended by the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Defense representatives. Vasyl Bodnar, the Ambassador of Ukraine to Ankara, was also present, even if Ukraine is not a NATO member. He was welcommed as if he was the guest of honour. During his short but concise speech, US Ambassador Flake invited Bodnar to join him and praised the “heroic resistance” of the Ukrainian people.

One sentence in his speech was particularly interesting. Flake emphasized that Turkey has the second-largest army and “second-largest F-16 fleet” in NATO after the United States. The emphasis on “the second-largest army” was heard a lot, but the emphasis on “the second-largest F-16 fleet” was made for the first time. Did this mean a green light for Turkey’s application to purchase 40 new-generation F-16s and 80 modernization kits?

Support from Biden, changing balances in Congress

Flake, a diplomat with a political background (former Arizona Senator), did not answer our questions in this regard; he just smiled. However, according to the information we were able to compile from the diplomatic sources present at the reception, the general outlook is as follows:

• US President Joe Biden was already positive about Turkey’s F-16 modernization program within the framework of strengthening NATO’s Southeast flank. The support grew stronger after Ankara’s role in the Ukrainian backdrop.

• The decision of Congress is still important. In the congress, especially the Greek lobby is against the approval of Turkey’s F-16 modernization. Its closest supporter in this regard was the Israel lobby.

• However, the visit of Israeli President Isaac Herzog to Ankara on March 9, at Erdoğan’s invitation, may change the balance. There is information that a record number of nearly 100 Congress staffers attended the briefing meeting on Herzog’s visit given by Turkey’s Ambassador to Washington, Murat Mercan.
  In summary, Turkey’s facilitating diplomacy in the Ukraine Crisis seems to make Congressional approval in the F-16 modernization program easier.

Erdogan’s offer to Putin to meet Zelensky in Turkey, which he proposed in yesterday’s phone call, is not seen as a remote possibility as it was at the beginning of the crisis. If this happens, it will be possible for Turkey to strengthen its role in the Western political system without being hostile to Russia. Such a development may have other benefits beyond the purchase of the F-16.