Ankara: “New Cold War” may bring new alliances

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s spokesperson İbrahim Kalın made two broadcasts one after the other on social media on April 13. The most important part of his statements was that he made an assessment that “we have entered a new cold war period.” Another important assessment he made is that he said “new balances will be established,” including “regional alliances.”

However, with this statement, we can say that Turkey is preparing for a more comprehensive change in its foreign policy than its current moves, including its security and defense aspects.

First of all, Kalın is not just Erdogan’s spokesperson, he is Erdogan’s Chief Advisor for Security and Foreign Policy, and if you ask me, he is the only real adviser as we see in Western democracies. He is also a member of Erdogan’s Cabinet and National Security Council. It is known that Erdogan had meetings with the leaders of some countries only with Kalın, without the need for an interpreter.

Second, that statement was not a response to a polemic or any domestic or foreign policy outburst. We can read it as a manifesto on behalf of Turkey.

The third, the statement came at a time when Russia was signaling a tendency to expand its invasion of Ukraine.

Mutual mistakes, balance of power, calculations of interest

Details of Kalin’s statement that “we entered the cold war, the balances will change”

1-“The Ukraine crisis continues getting more serious”

According to Ankara, the cold war period started with the deepening of the Ukraine crisis. We can deduce that despite Turkey’s efforts to facilitate the crisis, there is no hope left that it can be brought under control in a short time, or that it is too weak. As a matter of fact, the causes and consequences of this pessimism are summarized in the second sentence.

2-“Mutual mistakes, the search for a new balance of power and short-term interest calculations will cause great strategic losses and human drama in the medium-long term.”

Ankara attributes the deepening of the Ukraine Crisis to three reasons. Russia and Ukraine are not the only ones to blame; This picture includes the USA, the EU, NATO which Turkey is its decision partner, and China. The mention of “strategic losses and humanitarian dramas in the medium-long term” points to the global dimension of the conflict, perhaps to the possibility of using nuclear weapons. Let’s not forget that Pakistan, which has witnessed a change in management recently, is also a nuclear power.

3-“We have entered a new cold war period. The effects of this war will last for decades.”

New cold war alliances

4-“New balances will be established in all areas from food and energy security to geopolitical dynamics and regional alliances.”

The talk of new alliances comes before us in this sentence. It is clear that Turkey’s exit from the NATO alliance is not meant here. While Russia is following an increasingly political-military line of action that will force it to seek support from China, it is not possible for Turkey to break away from the Western alliance. We are in a period when Sweden and Finland are also preparing to apply for NATO membership, against all the warnings of Russia. For example, Turkey’s vote is required for membership.

However, there are traces of possible balances based on thematic alliances in Kalın’s statement. This may mean that you won’t have to agree on everything with the country or countries you agree on a certain point. Food and energy security, for example, is especially included. It would be a grave strategic mistake for Turkey to become dependent on the USA and Canada, which have become grain and energy exporters after getting rid of its dependence on Russia on this issue. It is possible to add water resources and drug, vaccine and other medical equipment dependencies that emerged with the Covid-19 epidemic.

Turkey: Domestic policy reflections

5-“Turkey will maintain its balanced stance and continue its multi-faceted initiatives to establish peace, stability, security and justice in this critical period.”

This means that Turkey will want to maintain its autonomous stance while remaining in NATO. It is understood that if the war spreads, the Turkish state will try to avoid being a party to the conflict as much as possible; Unless an attack comes to Turkey, this would be the right move.

These were the assessments from Kalin’s statements at first glance.

Is the discourse “If we had entered the Second World War, the Dodecanese would have belonged to Turkey”, which had been adopted by the ranks of the ruling AKP government, being abandoned at the highest level? The Ukraine Crisis seems to remind the Erdogan Cabinet of the value of the Montreux Convention, which was seen as the guarantee of the future during Atatürk’s era, and the importance of the avoidance policy of İnönü in the Second World War. Let’s hope so.

The other side of the coin is that the reflections of the cold war in domestic politics may mean more repressive policies. In the first cold war, Western democracies were concerned with the quality of democracy, rights and freedoms in Turkey only to get political-military concessions. The most concrete example of this is the attitude of the USA in the military coup of September 12, 1980.

Along with the new cold war statement, the danger that strategic interests and priorities will be used as justification for new methods of repression that will further regress the quality of pluralist democracy in Turkey and the principles of the secular, social state of law stands before us.