The American Midterms and a global revolt against the future

It seems increasingly less likely that the results of the U.S. Midterm elections will help clear the clouds menacing American democracy. Anand Giridharadas, commenting on recent developments in world politics said: “We are living through a revolt against the future”.

The former New York Times columnist is right on target. Throughout the world we are truly experiencing a revolt against the future.

While U.S. headlines are filled with updates about the infamous January 6th insurgency and discussions about the presumed culpability of former President Donald Trump in inciting the perpetrators, more than half the U.S. population and politicians on both sides of the aisle suffer doubts about the ability of the Biden administration to effectively manage the multitude of problems the country is facing. Many even doubt the integrity of national elections; the very basis on which American democracy is built.

It is highly unlikely that the midterm elections will help ease these tensions. America seems hopelessly split in two and many analysts predict President Biden will have to finish his term facing off with a majority Republican Congress.

National elections and the World

Furthermore, we have little reason to assume that the national elections in 2024 will deliver the stability the oldest democracy in the World so desperately needs. Realistic expectations about the challenges that mankind will be facing in November 2024 are grim. With abnormally high energy prices, historically high inflation and the worsening state of already existing conflicts with adversaries such as Russia, China and Iran, Mr. Biden or his Democratic replacement has little chance of winning the popular vote. The only scenario where a Democratic candidate wins, seems to be one where Trump runs as an independent candidate splitting the Republican vote. However, while the potential legal trouble that President Trump is facing might prevent his candidacy, the prospect of a fourth Democratic administration in two decades convincing the Republican Party to once again nominate President Trump cannot be dismissed entirely either. Indeed, there are many different scenarios with the only constant being continued instability that will undoubtedly fuel more resentment among voters and consequently more distrust in the system.

We see similar trends where the existing political system fails to ensure societal stability in countries varying from India and Brazil to Hungary and Bulgaria. Alarmingly, traditionally stable democracies in Europe aren’t immune to this trend either as evidenced by the recent electoral success of Marine Le Pen in France or like-minded parties in the Netherlands, as well as the election of Ms Giorgia Meloni, the new Prime Minister of Italy. While older European democracies are unable to renew the faith in their political system, younger countries are suffering as well with Turkey spiralling further into authoritarianism and Israel suffering its 5th national election in only 3 years.

The Turkish-American Perspective

Besides instability, there is another constant looming in the political future of the United States. The American bilateral relationship with its decades-old NATO ally, Turkey, is unlikely to improve. While a Republican take-over of Congress or a change in the White House might have serious consequences for American society, changes in U.S. foreign policy are less likely as American politicians still manage to close ranks when U.S. national interest and national security is concerned. And if President Erdogan wins another term in 2023, the likelihood of changes in the American political landscape affecting the attitude of U.S. policy-makers towards Turkey are almost non-existent. If there is one issue everyone accross the entire political spectrum in the United States seem to agree on, it is that Erdogan is no longer a preferred or predictable ally.

All these developments seem to easily vindicate Mr. Giridharadas’ analysis about a revolt against the future. The more difficult to foresee is his added prediction that the future will indeed prevail.