Erdoğan may dissolve the parliament to gain electoral advantage

Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan may dissolve the parliament and lead the country to early elections in order to gain an electoral advantage.

When you form the sentence like “the president may dissolve the parliament,” it sounds different than “if the parliament does not decide for early elections, the president may decide to bring it forward.”

The country will have critical elections, which are officially scheduled to be held on June 18. However, it is a “known secret” that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been discussing holding the elections earlier, even though no AKP official has yet confirmed the rumors.

Rephrasing evinces the facts

Sometimes the circumstances become more evident when they are rephrased and named properly.

The concerns that President Erdoğan will not be able to win the election in the first round, which is scheduled to be held on June 18, may force the AKP to bring the elections forward.

For days, many AKP officials including Parliamentary Speaker Mustafa Şentop to AKP Parliamentary vice chair Özlem Zengin have been vocal about this.

“There are two ways to bring the country to (early) elections. First is the parliament to vote for it with the 360 (of 660) votes of the lawmakers, and the second is the president to dissolve the parliament,” AKP Deputy Chair Hamza Dağ said on Channel 7, naming the authority of the president to bring forward the elections.

To be the first president to dissolve the parliament

In fact Özlem Zengin has stated that May 14 is one of the dates that have been discussed within the party, denying rumors that Erdoğan and AKP’s “People Alliance” partner Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli had agreed to hold the elections on April 30 in their last meeting.

It is very difficult for Erdogan to have the election held ahead of schedule and to get the decision to bring it forward passed by the Parliament unless the opposition allows it. In this case, Erdogan, as Dağ said, can dissolve the Parliament and lead the country to elections within 60 days.

This will not only be an admission of concern that Erdogan will not win the election in the June 18 first round. It will also mean that on the 100th anniversary of the Republic, a president will dissolve parliament to gain an electoral advantage. (*)

When you paraphrase, the meaning changes too, doesn’t it?

Let me try to explain why he might try to dissolve Parliament to gain an electoral advantage.

Concerns about not winning in the first round

If Erdogan wishes to hold the election before June 18, this is not a guarantee for him or anyone else. However, holding the election on time will reduce Erdogan’s chances of being elected in the first round, besides the discussions over his candidacy, because of the constitutional rule that a president can be elected only for two terms. If he makes it to the second round—that is, July 2, if it takes place on June 18—he may have pushed his luck even further.

There are several reasons that cause AKP members to be concerned:

1- AKP members know that improvements such as the increase in the minimum wage, the early retirement regulation, which they previously opposed, and now the increase in pensions and civil servants’ salaries will lose their effect in a few months in the face of the increasing cost of living. In fact, in his address to his party’s parliamentary group on December 21, Erdoğan spoke of “not letting the opportunists profit” from this possibility. Therefore, they consider the possibility of the positive effect of these price hikes to continue until June as low.

2- Schools will be closed on June 16. ÖSYM announced June 17-18 as the university exam date that will affect more than 2 million students. After the announcement, there was talk that the date could be changed, but no official statement has been made so far. The holiday season will begin. Some will leave the big cities to take a vacation, and some will leave to harvest crops.

Main reason: Hajj and Eid-al-Adha

3- Eid al-Adha celebration is between June 28 and July 1. The Hajj (the Islamic pilgrimage) season begins on June 26, and the journey of those who will go on Hajj will begin in mid-June. It is possible to assume that AKP voters will be in the majority among those who go on pilgrimage.

An AKP official, who wished to remain anonymous, said, “This is the reality of Türkiye.”

“We have to accept it,” the official said, pointing to the source of the discussion.

It is for these reasons that the AKP is discussing early elections. However, in this case, holding the election on time, on June 18, may gradually turn to the advantage of the opposition.

In fact, Erdoğan’s best choice is to hold the election in March, for example, before the effect of the raises in the minimum wage, pensions, and salaries of public workers and civil servants on the cost of living starts to fade.

However, in this case, the new election law, which lowers the electoral threshold from 10 percent to 7 percent and provides extra benefits to the government in terms of vote counting methods, cannot be implemented before April 7. The law was accepted in the parliament on April 7, 2022, and cannot be enacted in an election before April 7, 2023. The ally, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, to whom Erdoğan owes his presidency the most, stands against this because his party’s votes are below 7 percent. On the other hand, there is Ramadan between March 20 and April 20, and Ramadan Feast on April 21-23.

Too much force can spoil the game

Therefore, the focus is on the month of May. Erdogan will, of course, make the decision. But there is also a timetable. For example, it is necessary to mobilise the Parliament for elections on May 14, and bring the issue to the Parliament in mid-March. If the opposition opposes it, Erdogan may want to dissolve Parliament and hold elections. Or, he can use his constitutional authority without involving the Assembly at all.

In this process, other moves may come, which will put the opposition in a difficult position and give the AKP (and MHP) an advantage, taking into account the debates on undermining the rule of law. Foremost among these is the possibility of the AKP seizing the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, which was lost through elections, through judicial decisions. Previously, CHP Provincial Chair Canan Kaftancıoğlu was sentenced to prison and barred from political activities for insulting the president, and last month, CHP Metropolitan Mayor of Istanbul Ekrem İmamoğlu was sentenced for insulting the Supreme Electoral Board. IYI Party leader Meral Akşener says that these steps to “seize” may be used for other opposition municipalities.

In this backdrop, it is not far-fetched that Erdoğan may dissolve the parliament in order to give himself an electoral advantage.

(*) Constitutional discussion

The main opposition CHP Istanbul Deputy İlhan Kesici, who read the article, touched upon an important issue.

There is a sentence in Article 116 of the Constitution: “If the Assembly decides to renew the elections in the second term of the President, the President can be a candidate once again.”

Since Erdoğan is in his second term, and the constitution states that a president can only be elected twice, there is a new discussion if he can be nominated again.

Kesici is of the opinion that Article 116 should be interpreted as meaning that if the parliament renews the election, the president can be a candidate for re-election, but if he dissolves the parliament, he cannot be a candidate again.

In other words, according to Kesici, the Constitution states that if Erdoğan dissolves the Turkish Grand National Assembly in order to advance the June 18 election, he will not be a candidate again.

This may start a new discussion.